IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.87% at 133,622, after briefly scaling a fresh all-time high near 135,000, supported by expectations of further US monetary easing. Sentiment improved as fresh signs of cooling in the US labor market strengthened the case for future rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims for December 6 rose more than expected, marking the highest level in over two months. This followed the Federal Reserve’s third 25 bps rate cut of the year and a notably less hawkish stance. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that additional rate hikes are effectively off the table, prompting markets to price in two rate cuts in 2026, despite the Fed’s projections signaling only one. Adding to support, the Fed announced plans to purchase around USD 40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to ease money market strains, a move expected to cap short-term yields and remain favorable for precious metals. Central bank demand stayed robust, with the People’s Bank of China increasing gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month to about 74.12 million troy ounces. Global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October, while gold ETFs recorded their sixth straight month of inflows, led by strong buying from Asia. On the physical front, demand was mixed. Gold discounts widened in India amid record prices, while Chinese demand remained muted due to volatility. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.95% to 13,646 alongside a price gain of 1,153. Gold has support at 132,175; a break below could test 130,730. Resistance is seen at 135,165, and a sustained move above may open the door toward 136,710.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 130730-136710.

* Gold climbed 135000 to all time high supported by expectations of more interest rate cuts next year after Fed pushed back against hawkish market bets.

* Jobless claims rose more than expected, reaching their highest level in over two months.

* Fed delivered its third 25 bps cut of the year and adopted a less hawkish tone than markets anticipated.

Silver

Silver settled lower by 3.06% at 192,851, retreating on profit booking after touching an all-time high near 200,000 earlier in the session. The sharp correction came even as the broader fundamental backdrop remains constructive. Earlier in the week, silver was supported by the US Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut and a less hawkish policy outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that further rate hikes are unlikely, with projections pointing to one additional cut next year and another in 2027, which continues to underpin precious metals. Investment demand stayed strong, with robust ETF inflows and solid retail buying reinforcing expectations of a structural market deficit in the coming year. At the same time, silver mine production and recycling have remained largely flat for more than a decade, while the global supply deficit is forecast to extend into a fifth consecutive year. The shortfall is estimated at around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking the cumulative deficit since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Physical market tightness persists, reflected in elevated lease rates in London and sharply declining inventories in China. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, while exports surged to a record 660 tonnes in October. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 14.11% to 10,982 alongside a price drop of 6,091. Silver has support at 188,085; a break below may test 183,310. Resistance is seen at 199,625, and a move above could push prices toward 206,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 183310-206390.

* Silver dropped on profit booking as Federal Reserve officials remain divided about future monetary policy meetings.

* Earlier in the day, prices crossed all-time 2,00,000 as the latest Fed rate cut coincided with tightening physical market conditions.

* Robust ETF buying and strong retail demand also supported silver, reinforcing forecasts of a market deficit next year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled higher by 0.95% at 5,228, supported by geopolitical concerns after the US seized a tanker linked to Venezuela, raising fears of potential supply disruptions. Venezuela condemned the move as an act of piracy, while tensions were further elevated by Ukraine’s continued attacks on shadow-fleet tankers associated with Russian oil trade. Russia, however, increased output in November, with production edging up to 9.367 million bpd, reflecting the OPEC+ decision to proceed with a moderate rise in output quotas. Upside in prices remained capped amid expectations of a global surplus. The IEA reiterated its outlook for a record supply glut, although it marginally narrowed its estimate, citing slightly stronger demand growth and lower-than-expected supply increases due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Global inventories have climbed to a four-year high, reinforcing concerns over excess supply. In contrast, OPEC maintained its 2026 supply and demand outlook, signaling a more balanced market and keeping its global demand growth forecasts unchanged, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment. On the inventory front, US crude stocks fell by 1.81 mbls in latest week, but gasoline and distillate inventories posted sharp builds, while crude stocks at Cushing rose after four weeks of declines, limiting bullish momentum. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 33.38% to 7,894 as prices gained 49. Crude oil has support at 5,188, with a break below opening the door to 5,147. Resistance is seen at 5,265, and a move above could extend gains toward 5,301.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5147-5301.

* Crude oil recovered amid worries about impact from the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela.

* IEA reaffirmed its forecast for a record supply glut, though slightly lower than last month’s estimate.

* Russia raised oil production in November, deputy PM Novak

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled lower by 1.21% at 376.5, pressured by forecasts for milder weather and weaker demand in the coming week, along with near-record production levels and ample inventories. Weather models indicate temperatures across much of the US are likely to remain warmer than normal through December 26, reducing heating demand from residential and commercial consumers. At the same time, rising concerns over future gas demand from power generation, particularly linked to data center growth, added to the cautious sentiment. Supply-side pressure remains significant. Average dry gas output in the Lower 48 states has climbed to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in December, marginally above November’s record average. Strong production has enabled energy companies to build inventories more aggressively, leaving storage levels around 3% above normal for this time of year. Although LNG exports are expected to reach a record high for a tenth consecutive year in 2025, gas consumption for power generation is projected to decline next year after peaking in 2024, limiting upside potential. On the storage front, US utilities withdrew 177 bcf of natural gas for the week ended December 5, bringing total inventories to 3,746 bcf. The EIA expects both production and demand to hit record highs in 2025, with output forecast at 107.7 and consumption at 91.8, before easing in 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 11.24% to 19,694 as prices declined by 4.6. Natural gas has support at 368.4, with a break below opening the door to 360.2. Resistance stands at 385.5, and a move above could test 394.4.

Trading Ideas:

# Naturalgas trading range for the day is 360.2-394.4.

# Natural gas dropped on near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage.

# EIA said energy firms pulled 177 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended December 5.

# China's natural gas consumption will likely expand 5% next year from this year.

Copper

Copper settled lower by 1.35% at 1,096.8, weighed down by profit booking after some US Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the pace of future rate cuts. Despite the correction, downside remained limited, supported by China’s commitment to fiscal stimulus and the Fed’s recent rate cut alongside balance sheet expansion, both of which continue to underpin medium-term demand expectations. China’s official Xinhua news agency reported that policymakers have pledged to maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, reinforcing optimism around infrastructure and energy-related consumption. Fundamentals were mixed. Copper inventories tracked by the SHFE rose 0.5% on the week to 89,389 tonnes, while the share of Chinese-origin copper in LME increased to 85% in November, driven by favorable export arbitrage. Chinese copper stocks on the LME climbed sharply to 130,225 tonnes as higher overseas prices encouraged shipments. At the same time, China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month in November as elevated prices dampened buying interest, with Yangshan premium easing to USD 32 per tonne, signaling softer demand for imports. However, the broader supply-demand balance is tightening. The ICSG reported a refined copper deficit of 51,000 tonnes in September, while ANZ Research expects the market to move deeper into deficit in 2026, with inventories drawing down by around 450,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.11% to 7,347 as prices fell 15.05. Copper has support at 1,077.7, with a break below exposing 1,058.6. Resistance stands at 1,120.4, and a move above could test 1,144.

Trading Ideas:

# Copper trading range for the day is 1058.6-1144.

# Copper dropped on profit booking after some Fed officials voiced concerns about further rate cuts.

# China's official Xinhua news agency reported pledges by Chinese leaders to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy in 2026.

# ANZ Research expects copper prices to remain above $11,000 per ton in 2026, with prices potentially nearing $12,000 by year-end.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled lower by 1.06% at 316.7, pressured by fresh inflows into London Metal Exchange inventories. LME data showed 1,800 tonnes of zinc added to stocks, taking total inventories to 61,925 tonnes, the highest level since August, easing immediate supply concerns. However, the downside remained limited amid signs of tighter availability in certain LME-registered warehouses and supportive macroeconomic cues. Business activity in the euro zone expanded in November at its fastest pace in two and a half years, while softer US economic data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, lending some support to base metals. Fundamentals remain mixed. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tonnes in September from 32,700 tonnes in August, although the market still showed a surplus of 120,000 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025. In China, zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell sharply by 12.3% on the week, while inventories outside China have dropped to extremely low levels. Supply disruptions are also emerging, with routine maintenance shutdowns at zinc mines in central and southwest China expected to reduce concentrate output, including an estimated 700 tonnes loss in metal content. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 13.43% to 2,977 as prices declined by 3.4. Zinc has support at 312.8, with a break below opening the door to 308.9. Resistance is seen at 322.5, and a move above could test 328.3.

Trading Ideas:

# Zinc trading range for the day is 308.9-328.3.

# Zinc fell as LME stocks rose by 1,800 tons to 61,925, the highest since August.

# Global zinc market fundamentals remain tight due to limited concentrate supply and Chinese smelter policies.

# Global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled marginally lower by 0.64% at 278.9, tracking weakness across the broader base metals complex as investors digested recent Federal Reserve comments and reassessed the interest rate outlook for 2026. Despite the decline, downside remained limited, supported by improving demand prospects and persistent global supply constraints. Beijing has signaled fresh stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing the property sector, a development that could lift demand for aluminium used in construction, transportation, and manufacturing. On the supply side, China, the world’s largest producer, is approaching its government-imposed annual capacity cap of around 45 million tonnes, leaving little scope for further output growth. Supply pressures were compounded by delays in new smelter projects in Indonesia due to higher energy costs and regulatory hurdles, as well as the suspension of one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter following equipment failure. Premiums also reflected tight availability, with global producers seeking USD 190–203 per tonne from Japanese buyers for January–March shipments, sharply higher than the current quarter. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.5% on the week, reinforcing supply-side tightness. On the macro front, global primary aluminium output edged up 0.6% year-on-year in October. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 6.51% to 2,914 as prices slipped 1.8. Aluminium has support at 277.2, with a break below opening a test of 275.5. Resistance is seen at 281.4, and a move above could push prices toward 283.9.

Trading Ideas:

# Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.5-283.9.

# Aluminium dropped tracking other base metals prices as investors digested Fed comments and reassessed the 2026 rate outlook.

# Beijing has recently signaled fresh stimulus measures to extend the combat against its property crisis.

# Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.5% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled higher by 2.85% at 16,332, supported by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their holdings, providing a strong base ahead of the new crop. Production prospects have been impacted by excessive rainfall across major growing states including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, while continuous rains in Erode have led to disease outbreaks in some areas. Overall, 15–20% crop damage has been reported due to waterlogging and potential rhizome damage, tightening near-term availability. Arrivals are expected to remain delayed until February–March, while carry-forward stocks are at record-low levels compared with historical averages, keeping supplies tight. International and domestic demand continues to be robust, with strong buying interest from Europe and the US. In Indonesia, the crop season has ended, and the quality of material this season was reported to be lower than normal, further supporting global demand for Indian turmeric. Export performance has remained healthy, with shipments during April–September 2025 rising 4.02% year-on-year to 96,679.67 tonnes. September exports were up 7.59% on a yearly basis, although marginally lower compared with August. However, upside may be capped by expectations of higher acreage in the coming season. Favorable sowing conditions and better relative profitability have encouraged farmers to increase turmeric acreage by an estimated 15–20%. For the 2024–25 season, area under turmeric rose to 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.13% to 11,730 alongside a price gain of 452. Turmeric has support at 16,024, with a break below opening a test of 15,714. Resistance is seen at 16,520, and a move above could push prices toward 16,706.

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 15714-16706.

# Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

# However upside seen limited as market demand was weak and payment flow remained slow.

# 15-20% crop damage has been reported from the major growing areas due to excessive rain and water logging.

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15277.05 Rupees gained by 0.56 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled marginally higher by 0.09% at 21,115, supported by weather-related concerns and delayed sowing, which continue to underpin market sentiment. Sowing progress in Gujarat, the key producing state, remains sluggish due to uneven rainfall, with area as of December 8 estimated at 2.61 lakh hectares, marginally lower than last year. Fields in several regions are not fully ready, resulting in one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at the Unjha market stayed very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices, while logistical and weather disruptions across India and the Middle East have further tightened near-term supplies. However, upside in prices remains limited due to comfortable carry-in stocks and muted export demand. Traders noted that demand has softened following the end of the retail season, with overseas buying remaining price-sensitive, particularly from Gulf countries and China. Current export requirements are largely being met from existing inventories. Jeera exports during April–September 2025 declined sharply by 14.51% year-on-year, although September exports showed sequential and annual improvement. Farmers are estimated to be holding nearly 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. On the production front, estimates suggest cumin output may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this year versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing and weather challenges. Lower output expectations in other producing countries have offered some support, though global demand remains subdued. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 5.9% to 3,111 as prices rose 20. Jeera has support at 21,010, with a break below opening a test of 20,910. Resistance is seen at 21,180, and a move above could push prices toward 21,250.

Trading Ideas:

# Jeera trading range for the day is 20910-21250.

# Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong

# However, upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks..

# In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 2,60,925 hectares down by 0.45% compared to last years 2,62,115 hectares.

# In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20952.05 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views