Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 20 Jan 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Spot gold and silver surged to fresh record highs above $4,690.6/oz and $94.6/oz, respectively, on Monday driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed trade uncertainty. Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations effective February 1, linked to the Greenland dispute, with the threat of steeper duties by June. In response, members of the European Parliament moved to halt ratification of the U.S.–EU trade agreement signed last summer. U.S. dollar eased from last week’s highs as investors reassessed the policy outlook, supporting precious metals. While strong U.S. data has reduced near-term Fed rate cut, bullion continues to benefit from geopolitical risk, trade friction, and portfolio hedging flows. Today, Gold held near record highs of $4670 while silver eased from peak levels amid Greenlandrelated trade tensions; upcoming U.S. housing, labor data, GDP, and Core PCE will guide market direction.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil prices held steady in thin trading during the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, moving within a narrow range as market participants weighed easing geopolitical risks from Iran alongside Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland. Crude oil trades near $59.5/bbl today as China’s gross domestic product grew 5% last year, meeting the government’s official target. However, this does not necessarily signal a strong outlook for oil demand, as China recorded progressively weaker year-on-year growth across all four quarters of 2025. Meanwhile, markets remain alert to potential supply developments from Venezuela and cautious ahead of the IEA’s first monthly oil market report of 2026, due tomorrow.
Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures surged 15% yesterday, rebounding sharply from 3-month lows to settle at $3.71/mmBtu, highest level in 2026 driven by a sudden shift in weather forecasts toward colder conditions, boosting heating demand expectations.
Base metals – Base metals extended early-week gains, with copper rebounding toward $13,000/ton and nickel outperforming on renewed risk appetite. A dip in the dollar helped lift copper prices, even as markets continued to digest mixed signals from China, where solid headline growth contrasts with lingering stress in the property sector. Aluminium prices stayed elevated near three-year highs, supported by China’s constrained smelting capacity and supply disruptions in key producing regions. Meanwhile, BHP Group’s upward revision to copper output guidance highlighted confidence in longer-term demand, despite near-term volatility from trade uncertainty and tighter market regulation in China. Metals are trading lower in the session on profit-taking after recent highs and the PBOC’s steady policy stance, even as tight supply and energy-transition demand remain supportive.
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