Gold trimmed losses as US data boosted Fed rate cut hopes next week - HDFC Securities Ltd

GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP
* Gold pared losses following US data on inflation and the jobs market, which supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% from a year earlier, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, separate data indicated that US initial jobless claims surged to their highest level in nearly four years. This data reinforced traders’ belief that the US central bank will reduce borrowing costs during its two-day meeting that concludes on September 17 and raised the bets for three Fed rate cuts by end-2025 following the data. * Meanwhile, gold and silver both traded higher in the Asian trading hours on Friday. Gold is approaching a near-record high, while spot silver surged 1% toward $42 per ounce on Friday, marking a new 14-year high. Increased expectations of several rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 bolstered buying, while a positive trend in industrial metals further enhanced market sentiment.
* Crude oil fell more than 2.0% on Thursday, pressured by concerns over weakening U.S. demand and an oversupply situation. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.9 mbl last week, significantly surpassing forecasts. Meanwhile, the IEA projected that global oil supply will grow at a faster rate than previously anticipated, as OPEC+ increases production. In contrast, OPEC’s own report, released shortly after the IEA’s, maintained its non-OPEC supply and demand outlook, citing stable consumption.
* Natural gas extended losses on Thursday after a bearish weekly storage report. The EIA's weekly report indicated that natural gas inventories increased by 71 bcf for the week ending September 5, surpassing expectations of a 68 bcf increase..
* Industrial metals traded at their recent swing high, supported by several bullish factors, such as a weaker US dollar, the anticipation of a US rate cut, and a favorable outlook from China.
Gold
* Trading Range: 108580 to 110050
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Oct Fut at 109125-109150 SL 108775 Target 109750/109900
Silver
* Trading Range: 125080 to 129680
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Nov Fut at 127450-127475 SL 126480 Target 129050/129680
Crude Oil
* Trading Range: 5380 to 5575
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Crude Oil Sep Fut at 5520-5525 SL 5600 Target 5415/5380
Natural Gas
* Trading Range: 250 to 275
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Natural Gas Sep Fut at 264-265 SL 272.80 Target 252/250
Copper
* Trading Range: 905 to 924
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Sep Fut at 912-913 SL 907.80 Target 917.80/922
Zinc
* Trading Range: 275 to 282
* Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Sep Fut at 277.0-277.25 SL 274.0 Target 280.0/282.0
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