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Gold

Gold prices came under sharp pressure, declining 1.9% to settle at Rs.1,53,025, as stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance. A 0.7% rise in wholesale prices pushed Treasury yields toward 4.2% and supported the dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Despite the decline, underlying support remains intact due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Escalating conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to sustain safe-haven demand, helping gold maintain a year-to-date gain of around 16%. However, markets are now closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, particularly signals on the timing of potential rate cuts in 2026. Physical market trends remain mixed. In India, gold traded at deep discounts—up to $83 per ounce, the widest in nearly a decade—due to weak demand. In contrast, China saw strong buying interest, with premiums rising to $20–$30 per ounce, supported by continued central bank purchases. On the technical front, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 5.73% to 7,406 lots alongside a Rs.2,960 price drop. Immediate support is seen at ?1,51,025, with further downside toward Rs.1,49,025, while resistance is placed at Rs.1,55,550, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,58,075.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149025-158075.

* Gold fell as surprisingly hot producer inflation reinforced expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy hold.

* The Federal Reserve held the funds rate steady within the 3.5%–3.75% target range

* A 0.7% surge in February wholesale prices has pushed Treasury yields to 4.2% and bolstered the dollar index toward 99.9.

Sllver

Silver prices declined sharply, falling 1.94% to settle at Rs.2,48,194, as a stronger dollar and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. The dollar index climbed close to 99.9, supported by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Producer prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, while core PPI increased 0.5%, both exceeding expectations and reinforcing the view that inflation remains sticky. Rising oil prices have further added to inflationary pressure after reports of fresh attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. This combination of firm inflation and elevated energy costs has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals like silver. On the supply side, there are signs of tightening physical availability. Silver holdings in London vaults declined 2.4% month-on-month to 27,065 tonnes, indicating gradual drawdowns in global inventories. However, this has not been enough to offset the macro-driven pressure from currency strength and interest rate expectations. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.23% to 5,975 lots while prices dropped sharply by Rs.4,919. Immediate support is seen at Rs2,365, with further downside toward ?2,36,540, while resistance is placed at Rs.2,54,455, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.2,60,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 236540-260720.

* Silver dropped as dollar index strengthened to around 99.9 as concerns over persistent inflationary pressures intensified.

* Oil prices climbed again after Iran reported that some of its energy facilities had come under attack, adding to inflation worries.

* US producer prices rose 0.7% month-over-month in February 2026, above 0.5% in January.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices continued to move higher, settling up by 1.43% at 8998, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Fresh threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeting energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar raised serious concerns over supply disruptions. Adding to the uncertainty, attacks on Iran’s own facilities and ongoing conflict-related damage have tightened the global supply outlook, especially with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia is ramping up shipments via the Red Sea, with Yanbu port loadings expected to hit a record 3.8 million barrels per day in March. Meanwhile, Libya is rerouting flows from the Sharara oilfield after a fire incident. In the U.S., crude inventories rose sharply, with API data showing a 6.56 million barrel build, while EIA reported a 3.8 million barrel increase. However, declines in gasoline and distillate stocks indicate steady downstream demand. Russian output saw a slight dip, although exports to India are gradually recovering after temporary sanctions relief. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 25.74% to 8411 while prices gained Rs.127. Crude oil is finding immediate support at 8591, with a break below potentially testing 8184. On the upside, resistance is seen at 9315, and a sustained move higher could push prices towards 9632.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8184-9632.

* Crude prices rose after Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened several energy facilities across ‌Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.

* Iran's Fars news agency said some tanks and gas facilities in the country's Asaluyeh refinery had been hit.

* Saudi Arabia's crude oil loadings at its Yanbu port on ‌the Red Sea are set to surge to a record 3.8 mbpd in March.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling up by 0.85% at 283.3, supported mainly by a short-term drop in output, likely caused by freezing conditions in North Dakota. This uptick came despite expectations of milder weather ahead, which is likely to reduce heating demand and could even lead to early storage injections—an unusual trend for March. On the supply side, average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 bcfd so far in March, slightly higher than February levels, though daily production recently slipped to a six-week low of 107.5 bcfd. Demand trends remain mixed, with lower heating needs offset partly by rising cooling demand in warmer regions like California. Looking ahead, the Henry Hub benchmark is projected to average $3.94/mmBtu in 2026 before easing slightly in 2027. Storage data also reflects a seasonal shift. A withdrawal of 38 bcf was reported, lower than expectations, indicating that the withdrawal season may be nearing its end. Inventories remain 8.3% higher year-on-year, keeping overall supply comfortable. Meanwhile, long-term projections suggest rising production through 2027, while demand is expected to dip slightly in 2026 before recovering. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 5.91% to 18,940 while prices gained Rs.2.4. Immediate support is seen at 273.9, with a break below opening the door to 264.5. On the upside, resistance stands at 290.2, and a move above this level could push prices towards 297.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.5-297.1.

* Natural gas edged up on a drop in output over the past few days, likely due to freezing pipes in North Dakota.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next couple of weeks.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 bcfd so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February.

Copper

Copper prices came under notable pressure, falling by 2% to settle at 1153, as rising inventories and macroeconomic concerns weighed on sentiment. Stocks in LME warehouses climbed to 334,100 tons, the highest since August 2019, reflecting ample near-term supply. This was further highlighted by the widening discount of the cash contract to the three-month contract, which touched $113.5 per ton—its steepest in over a year. Broader market sentiment also remained cautious due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven energy prices higher and raised inflation concerns. A stronger inflation outlook has reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts, adding pressure on industrial metals. Meanwhile, China’s inflation picked up to a multi-year high following the Lunar New Year, while copper imports dropped 16.1% year-on-year, indicating softer demand. However, better-than-expected factory data from China helped limit the downside. On the global front, the refined copper market remained in surplus, with a 173,000-ton excess in December and a 380,000-ton surplus for the year. Despite this, major institutions remain bullish on the long-term outlook, citing growing demand and an expected supply deficit in the coming years. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 5.92% to 13,693 alongside a price drop of ?23.5. Immediate support is seen at 1139.4, with further downside towards 1125.6. Resistance is placed at 1170.6, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 1188.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1125.6-1188.

* Copper dropped weighed down by rising inventories in the LME system and inflation risks amid the Middle East conflict.

* Copper stocks in LME warehouses are at 334,100 tons, their highest since August 2019.

* China's copper exports almost doubled in January-February from a year earlier.

Zinc

Zinc prices remained under pressure, declining by 1.66% to settle at 314, as rising inventories and a stronger US dollar weighed on market sentiment. Stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 9.2% over the week, while fresh deliveries of over 21,000 tonnes into Singapore pushed LME inventories to their highest level since July, indicating comfortable near-term supply. At the same time, the firm US dollar—supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions—added further downside pressure. However, the decline was somewhat cushioned by underlying supply concerns, including historically low inventories in certain regions and ongoing disruptions from mine closures and delays. China’s improving industrial data also offered some support, with output rising 6.3% year-on-year and fixed asset investment showing modest growth. On the supply front, the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and ramp-up at the Kipushi project in Congo point to increasing output, which could keep the market in a slight surplus this year, as projected by Goldman Sachs. Still, the broader outlook suggests tightening conditions beyond 2026 as supply growth slows. Technically, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by 24.81% to 1,949 while prices fell by Rs.5.3. Immediate support is seen at 312.2, with a break below likely to test 310.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at 317.1, and a move above this level could push prices towards 320.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 310.2-320.

* Zinc dropped as rising inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and in LME warehouses weighed on market sentiment.

* SHFE stocks rose 9.2% in a week, while over 21,000 tonnes delivered into Singapore pushed LME inventories to their highest level since July.

* However, losses were still limited due to ongoing concerns about tight supply and historically low inventories in certain regions.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher, settling up by 0.7% at 343.3, supported by fresh supply concerns and short covering in the market. One of the key triggers was Guinea’s consideration of bauxite export quotas, which raised worries about raw material availability, especially since the country accounts for around 40% of global supply. Ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, including partial shutdowns at Aluminium Bahrain and reduced output at Qatalum, further tightened the supply outlook. At the same time, the market is seeing mixed signals on demand. While supply risks are building, high prices have started to weigh on consumption, with buyers limiting purchases to immediate needs. Inventory levels remain elevated, with global stocks exceeding 1.3 million tons and Shanghai inventories rising to their highest since 2020. However, tightness in nearby supply is reflected in the LME backwardation, indicating limited prompt availability. On the production side, global output continues to grow steadily, with China’s aluminium production rising 3% in the first two months of 2026. Despite this, major institutions remain bullish, citing constrained capacity growth and power-related supply challenges. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 25.7% to 2,012 while prices gained Rs.2.4. Immediate support is seen at 338.9, with a break below likely to test 334.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 345.9, and a move above this level could push prices towards 348.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 334.3-348.3.

* Aluminium rose as Guinea considered imposing bauxite export quotas, stoking feedstock supply concerns.

* Inventories of primary aluminum have exceeded 1.3 million tons, the highest since 2020.

* China's primary aluminium output in the first two months of 2026 climbed by 3% from the same period last year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher, gaining 0.68% to settle at Rs.14,878, supported by tight arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have reduced their holdings, limiting immediate availability ahead of fresh crop supplies. Weather-related disruptions in key producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have also impacted yields, adding to supply concerns. At the national level, dried turmeric production is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags. However, lower carry-forward stocks are offsetting this increase. While demand remains strong—especially from export markets like Europe and the U.S.—near-term upside could be capped as fresh arrivals, particularly in Erode, are expected to rise over the next couple of weeks. On the supply side, acreage has increased by around 4% year-on-year, though irregular weather and disease issues have limited yield gains in some regions. Export performance has been stable, with shipments during April–December 2025 rising 3.99%, while imports have declined sharply, indicating strong domestic consumption. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest slipping 0.67% to 17,105 lots while prices gained Rs.100. Immediate support is seen at Rs.14,738, with further downside toward Rs.14,596, while resistance is likely near Rs.15,036, and a move above could push prices toward Rs.15,192.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14596-15192.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15041.9 Rupees dropped by -1.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved higher, gaining 2.01% to settle at Rs.22,380, supported by expectations of lower production this season. Output is projected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes, with a sharp drop in Gujarat due to reduced acreage and weaker yields. In contrast, Rajasthan is likely to see higher production, partially offsetting the overall decline. Tight supply conditions, driven by erratic weather, lower sowing, and disease risks such as blight and aphid infestation, have supported prices. At the same time, logistical disruptions in key producing regions globally have added to supply concerns. However, the upside remains capped as arrivals of the new crop have begun and are expected to increase steadily through March. Demand trends remain mixed. While there is strong buying interest for premium-quality cumin, overall export demand has been subdued. Shipments during April–December 2025 declined 12.08% year-on-year, reflecting weak overseas interest and sufficient existing stocks. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have also disrupted trade flows, further impacting export sentiment. On the technical front, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 12.05% to 6,609 lots alongside a Rs.440 price increase. Immediate support is seen at Rs.22,050, with further downside toward Rs.21,720, while resistance is placed at Rs.22,700, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.23,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21720-23020.

* Jeera gained as production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* Production in Gujarat is expected to fall 27 per cent to 1.83 lt owing to an 18 per cent decline in area and a 11 per cent drop in yield.

* Rajasthan’s output is projected to rise 15 per cent to 3.29 lt, supported by a 4 per cent rise in area and a 11 per cent improvement in yield.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22199.2 Rupees gained by 0.69 percent.

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