Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 22 Jan 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Spot gold eased from its fresh record high of $4,888.4/oz to close near $4,831.7 as markets reacted to a softer tone from Trump on Greenland, coupled with rebound in the U.S. dollar. Silver also corrected by over 1.5%, settling below $93. The pullback followed Trump’s remarks at the World Economic Forum, where he ruled out military action and avoided tariff threats on the EU trade. Today, gold down about 0.70% to $4,795 amid easing geopolitical concern. However, lingering uncertainty due to political pressure on the Fed, weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales, and renewed fiscal concerns after a sharp selloff in Japanese government bonds continues to sustain safe-haven interest. Looking ahead, key U.S. data, GDP, jobless claims, and Core PCE, will be closely watched. However, policy uncertainty, and global macro risks are likely to keep bullion well supported.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil extended gains on Tuesday, surging to $60.9/bbl, amid reports that Trump is still considering “decisive” military options against Iran following its crackdown on antigovernment protests. Iran has warned it could launch pre-emptive strikes if it detects signs of an imminent threat, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated. The crude oil prompt spread remains in backwardation, with the March contract trading at a premium to April, signaling near-term supply disruption concerns. Support also stems from the IEA’s upward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth to 930,000 bpd. Today, Oil prices are holding gains amid improved risk appetite after eased U.S.–EU trade tensions, though momentum is tempered by a sizeable U.S. crude and gasoline inventory build reported by the API.
Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures extended their rally, surging above $5/mmBtu and gaining more than 50% over the past two sessions, as forecasts of freezing temperatures significantly boosted heating demand expectations.
Base metals – Base metals closed Wednesday on a firm note, though copper has since turned range-bound near $12,830/ton as market tightness begins to ease. A sharp rise in U.S. Comex inventories, now above 500,000 ton, has reduced the arbitrage incentive and encouraged metal to flow back toward LME warehouses, signaling a shift from acute tightness to more balanced conditions. While supply risks from mine disruptions and earlier tariff driven inflows into the U.S. continue to lend underlying support, elevated prices are weighing on demand, particularly in China, where the Yangshan import, premium has fallen to its lowest since mid-2024. Price spreads have moderated following recent backwardation spikes, while easing tariff risks and softer demand pressure base metals, despite ongoing supply constraints sustaining copper tightness
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