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The European Union's wheat exports are projected to hit their lowest level since 2018/19, with forecasts landing at 27 million metric tons for 2024/25. Poor weather conditions in key producers like France and Germany slashed production, while sluggish global demand further dampened export performance. French exports, traditionally leading the EU, collapsed to the smallest volume in decades, paving the way for Romania and Bulgaria to expand their share. Additionally, North African markets — previously reliant on French wheat — shifted to Black Sea suppliers like Russia and Ukraine. With China’s import demand also dropping sharply, EU wheat exports face significant challenges, leaving market players questioning how long this downward trend will continue.

Key Highlights

# EU wheat exports forecasted at 27 million tons, the lowest since 2018/19.

# France’s wheat production hit its lowest in decades, curbing exports.

# Romania and Bulgaria expanded their market share within EU wheat exports.

# North African markets turned to Black Sea suppliers due to scarce French wheat.

# Chinese import demand dropped over 50%, limiting EU wheat sales.

The European Union’s wheat exports are forecast to drop to 27 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season — the lowest level in six years. This decline stems primarily from poor weather in major producing nations like France and Germany, which saw production volumes tumble to their lowest since 2007/08. While strong carry-in stocks from previous seasons provided some buffer, it wasn’t enough to offset the production shortfall.

The price performance reflects these supply struggles. EU wheat quotes dipped only $3 per ton, a smaller drop compared to other global exporters like Canada and Australia, signaling tight supplies. France, which typically accounts for over a quarter of EU wheat exports, recorded its smallest crop in decades. As a result, Romania and Bulgaria seized the opportunity to expand their export share, now contributing 23% and 16% of EU wheat exports, respectively.

North African markets, once heavily reliant on French wheat, pivoted toward Black Sea suppliers like Russia and Ukraine. This shift was partly due to France’s reduced availability, coupled with competitive pricing from these alternative sources. Meanwhile, Chinese demand — a key market for EU wheat — plunged by over 50%, driven by lower domestic needs and limited access to French and Hungarian wheat, the only two EU countries with the necessary phytosanitary agreements for Chinese imports.

Finally

The EU wheat market faces an uphill battle, with production setbacks, rising competition, and declining demand reshaping the export landscape for the 2024/25 season.

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