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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 04th Aug 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

COMEX Gold August futures rebounded sharply on Friday to close the week near $3,400/oz, as Trump’s sweeping tariffs and disappointing U.S. jobs data, which hinted at a cooling labor market, rattled markets. The U.S. dollar tumbled from above 100 levels to 98.6 after the US nonfarm payrolls report showed just 73,000 jobs added in July, well below the 104,000 expected, with prior months revised sharply lower, bringing total employment growth between May and July to just 106,000 jobs. Wage growth rose 0.3% alongside an uptick in unemployment to 4.2%. The weak jobs print, coupled with Trump’s new tariffs of 10% to 41% on imports from over 70 countries, fueled fears of a broader economic slowdown. This increased odds of rate cuts, with markets now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut, up from under 60% before the jobs data. Today, COMEX gold holds gains and trades above $3,410/oz on limited risk appetite ahead of the rollout of steep tariffs on August 7 and emerging signs of U.S. economic weakness.

WTI crude oil prices were trading above $69/bbl earlier on Friday and were set for a sharp 6% weekly upside, supported by optimism over potential U.S. trade deals, escalating sanctions on countries importing Russian oil, and the most extensive Iran-related sanctions package since 2018. However, weak U.S. jobs data and speculation about a possible OPEC+ output hike led to a sharp pullback to $67.05/bbl and trimmed weekly gains to 3%. Today, oil prices hold declines as OPEC+ announced a 547,000 barrel-a-day output increase for September, the last in a series of bumper oil production increases. However, sharp downside may be capped owing to the weaker dollar, Trump’s threat of potential sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, as well as renewed maximum pressure on Iran.

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