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Quick Pointers:

* New boiler commissioned in Bharuch in Q3FY26

* The company secured confirmation of over 16 molecules with an estimated peak revenue potential of Rs14bn

JUBLINGR reported a consolidated revenue of Rs10.5bn, broadly in line with our estimates. The Chemical Intermediate segment de-grew 14% QoQ and 2% due to pricing pressure across core products. Nutrition & Health Solution segment grew by 11% QoQ and 6%YoY, driven by increased volume of Vitamin B3. In the Specialty segment, the pharma portfolio saw improved demand and stable pricing; however, the Agrochemical segment remained weak due to softening in pyridine and its derivative prices. Deliveries under the USD300mn agrochemical CDMO contract are expected to commence in this quarter. On the margin front, Chemical Intermediates and Nutrition segments saw a 170bps YoY decline, while Specialty witnessed 40bps QoQ and 50bps YoY decline.

Looking ahead, we expect the Specialty segment to remain the key growth driver. However, pricing headwinds in the Nutrition and Chemical Intermediates segments continue to pose challenges. At an implied valuation of 27x Dec’27 EPS, we maintain ‘HOLD’, with TP of Rs657, based on the SOTP valuation approach.

* Revenue declines by 6.2% sequentially: Revenue stood at Rs10.5bn (-0.5% YoY / -6.2% QoQ; PLe: ~Rs10.5bn), driven by 2% YoY and 14% QoQ decline in the Chemical Intermediates segment, while Specialty Chemicals declined by 2% YoY and 6% QoQ.

* EBITDAM down 110bps YoY due to lower spreads: EBITDA stood at Rs1,266mn (-8.5% YoY/ -6.6% QoQ) and EBITDA margin stood at 12% (vs. 13.1% in Q3FY25 and 12.1% in Q2FY26; PLe: 12.8%), down 110bps YoY due to lower spreads. PAT stood at Rs469mn (-32.4% YoY/ -32.5% QoQ), impacted by Rs130mn exceptional cost (labor code impact). 9MFY26 PAT was Rs1.92bn, an increase of 8.1% YoY.

* Specialty EBIT margin down by 100bps YoY: EBIT margin declined across segments. The Specialty segment reported a 100bps YoY decline in EBIT margin to 19.9% (vs. 20.9% in Q3FY25), while the Nutrition and Health Solutions segment saw a sharper 310bps YoY contraction. Meanwhile, EBIT margin of the Chemical Intermediates segment declined by 230bps YoY to 0.1% (vs. 2.4% in Q3FY25).

* Concall takeaways: (1) A new boiler has been commissioned in Bharuch in Q3FY26. (2) The USD300mn agro CDMO project is set for commissioning in Q4FY26. (3) The Agrochemical segment is witnessing a recovery in volumes, though pricing pressure persists. (5) The Specialty segment witnessed pricing pressure across core products. (6) Diketene derivatives showed strong volume growth YoY; volumes were constant QoQ. (7) Customer traction increased across Pharma, Agro, Industrial and Cosmetics segments CDMO. (8) In the Nutrition and Health segment, niacinamide demand remained strong during the quarter. (9) Food-grade products witnessed pricing pressure. (10) In the Chemical Intermediates segment, spreads continue to remain under pressure for acetic anhydride, while acetic acid prices are seeing an uptrend now. (11) The paracetamol end-use segment saw modest uptick. (12) The management stated that they have secured confirmation for  over 16 molecules with an estimated peak revenue potential of Rs14bn (13) In advance of discussion for 7+ additional opportunities with a potential of Rs9bn revenue. (14) These new molecules are expected to have margins similar to the Specialty segment. (15) EU trade deals are expected to raise the level of competition; early signs are visible with choline’s market share beginning to increase in the EU. ?

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