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Gold

Gold prices slipped by -1.45% to 100,322 as investors awaited clarity from the White House on potential country-specific tariffs on bullion bars, while attention shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The White House confirmed it would issue an executive order on the matter, with tariffs expected to lift U.S. core inflation by 0.3%, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, above the Fed’s 2% target. A softer U.S. jobs report has strengthened expectations of a September rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing a 91% probability of a 25 bps reduction. China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for the ninth straight month in July, increasing holdings to 73.96 million ounces valued at $243.99 billion. However, physical gold demand in Asia weakened as high prices curbed buying interest, with Indian dealers quoting between a $9 discount to $2 premium, while in China, premiums stood at up to $2 per ounce. The World Gold Council reported global gold demand rose 3% YoY in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 tons, driven by a 78% surge in investment demand and a 21% rise in bar purchases, though jewellery consumption fell 14% to 341 tons, the lowest since Q3 2020. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down -18.42% to 13,510. Support lies at 99,920, below which prices may test 99,520. Resistance is at 100,960, and a breakout above could see prices targeting 101,600.

Trading Ideas:

*Gold trading range for the day is 99520-101600.

* Gold falls as markets seek White House clarity on bullion tariffs

* The White House said it would issue an executive order clarifying its stance on the tariffs.

* CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction next month.

Silver

Silver prices fell by -1.38% to 113,296 as investors booked profits ahead of key US inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Markets are increasingly pricing in a September rate cut, with another possible move in December, amid signs of a weakening US labor market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s comments reinforced expectations for three rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments—such as the upcoming US-China tariff deadline and a planned meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin—kept sentiment cautious. Fundamentally, retail silver investment has shown mixed trends. Europe’s recovery from late 2024 continues but remains below the elevated levels of 2020–2022, while India’s retail demand rose 7% YoY in H1 2025, supported by strong price expectations. Silver ETP investments surged, with net inflows of 95 Moz in H1 2025, pushing total holdings to 1.13 Boz, just 7% shy of the 2021 peak. The global market is expected to post its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, driven by record-high industrial fabrication projected to exceed 700 Moz, mainly from green economy applications. Physical investment is set to rise 3%, offsetting weakness in jewelry demand, which is expected to fall 6%, largely due to high prices in India. The market saw fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.53% to 15,541 as prices fell by 1,585. Immediate support lies at 112,560, below which a move toward 111,825 is likely. Resistance is seen at 114,285, and a break above could push prices toward 115,275.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 111825-115275.

* Silver slipped as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data that could shape the Fed’s policy path.

*The dollar index edged up, recovering from last Friday’s lows as traders prepared for key inflation data.

* Markets are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September amid signs of a weakening labor market.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended marginally higher by 0.04% at 5612, as investors awaited the outcome of U.S.-Russia talks aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict, scheduled for August 15 in Alaska. Sentiment was tempered after UBS cut its year-end Brent forecast to $62 from $68, citing increased supply from South America and resilient output from sanctioned nations, alongside weaker-than-expected Indian demand. OPEC+ announced a September production hike of 547,000 bpd, marking the completion of its output cut reversal and bringing total additions, including the UAE’s share, to 2.5 million bpd since April. On the supply-demand front, U.S. EIA data showed a bullish draw of 3 million barrels in crude inventories to 423.7 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by 565,000 barrels, countering forecasts for a build. Refinery runs rose by 213,000 bpd, with utilization up 1.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s September crude exports to China are expected to fall to 1.43 million bpd after price hikes, down from a two-year high in August. Money managers trimmed net long crude positions by 10,242 contracts to 23,127 in the week to August 5, reflecting caution in the market. Crude oil is currently in short covering mode, with open interest falling 13.99% to 10,007 while prices gained slightly. Support is seen at 5545, with a break below likely to test 5477. Resistance is at 5669, and a move above this could open the path towards 5725.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5477-5725.

* Crude oil settled flat as investors looked ahead to talks this week between the U.S. and Russia over the war in Ukraine.

* UBS has lowered its year-end Brent crude forecast to $62 a barrel from $68.

* Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions - CFTC

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped by 0.92% to close at 258.4, pressured by near-record production, comfortable storage levels, and milder weather forecasts. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.4 bcfd in August, surpassing July’s record of 107.9 bcfd. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, robust supply has enabled above-average storage injections, keeping inventories around 6% above seasonal norms. Meteorologists still expect above-normal heat through August 26, though with reduced intensity, limiting cooling demand. LNG exports remain strong, averaging 16.2 bcfd this month, up from 15.5 bcfd in July, with daily flows expected to touch 17.0 bcfd, close to April’s record. U.S. utilities injected 7 bcf into storage for the week ending August 1, well below the forecast of 15 bcf, bringing total stocks to 3.130 tcf—4.2% lower than last year but 5.9% above the five-year average. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected record U.S. natural gas output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production expected to rise to 105.9 bcfd and LNG exports averaging 14.6 bcfd. The market is showing fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose 3.12% to 38,922 while prices declined by 2.4 rupees. Support is placed at 254.3, with a break below potentially testing 250.2. Resistance stands at 263.1, and a move above could push prices towards 267.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 250.2-267.8.

* Natural gas fell pressured by near-record production, strong storage levels, and milder weather forecasts.

* Forecasts point to hotter-than-normal weather through late August, boosting demand.

* Daily output dropped to a four-week low of 106 bcfd, down nearly 3.7 bcfd from the record high set in late July.

Copper

Copper prices fell -0.51% to 884.8 yesterday as Codelco received authorization to resume partial operations at its El Teniente mine, the world’s largest underground copper mine, after a week-long suspension due to a deadly collapse. While this eased some supply concerns, broader downside remained limited amid tight global supplies and steady demand. LME copper inventories climbed to a near two-year high, and COMEX stocks hit their highest since February 2004 at 261,180 mt. China’s July trade data showed imports of unwrought copper rising 3.4% and copper concentrate up 8.9%, reflecting strong smelter demand despite tariff uncertainties. The International Copper Study Group reported a 97,000 mt global refined copper surplus in May versus an 80,000 mt deficit in April, with year-to-date surplus nearly unchanged from last year. Chile’s Codelco posted a 9% output rise in H1 2025, while Antofagasta’s production grew 11%. Goldman Sachs expects LME copper to ease to $9,550/t in August, maintaining a bullish December 2025 COMEX-LME arbitrage view on potential U.S. tariffs. The market witnessed fresh selling with open interest up 0.72% to 6,421 as prices declined by 4.5. Support lies at 882.5, with a break potentially testing 880.2, while resistance is placed at 888.4, above which prices may move towards 892.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 880.2-892.

* Copper dropped after Codelco received authorization to begin resuming certain operations at El Teniente mine.

* However, downside seen limited amid persistent supply concerns and the normalization of LME inventory levels.

* Goldman Sachs expects LME copper prices to fall modestly to a low of $9,550 per metric ton in August from $10,050/t previously.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.57% to settle at 268.55, pressured by weaker-than-expected Chinese producer prices in July and flat consumer prices, reflecting subdued domestic demand. While hopes remain for improved demand in September—typically a peak consumption season—lingering concerns over manufacturing slowdown in China capped gains. Export data offered some relief, with July shipments surpassing expectations amid a fragile tariff truce with the U.S. On the supply side, global zinc availability is tightening, with LME-registered warehouse stocks at a two-year low and key producers like Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine reporting a 20% annual drop in Q1 output. Australian smelter Nyrstar also announced a 25% cut in this year’s output due to uncompetitive treatment charges. China’s refined zinc output in July rose 3% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts, supported by the completion of maintenance work and the release of new capacity in Henan and Yunnan. Zinc alloy production also saw a monthly rise. However, zinc inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 6.8% from the prior week, reflecting mixed supply-demand dynamics. International Lead and Zinc Study Group data showed the global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 44,100 tonnes in May from a surplus in April, though the first five months of 2025 still recorded an 88,000-tonne surplus, smaller than last year’s. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 4.71% to 3,012. Immediate support lies at 267.4, with a break potentially testing 266.2, while resistance is seen at 270.4, and a move above could open the way to 272.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.2-272.2.

* Zinc dropped after Chinese producer prices fell more than expected in July.

* The discount of the cash contract against three-month zinc narrowed to 20 cents from $13.

* Available stocks in LME-registered warehouses at a two-year low.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell by 0.71% to settle at 252.35, pressured by weaker-than-expected Chinese factory-gate inflation data, which highlighted sluggish domestic demand and ongoing trade uncertainties. China’s producer prices in July declined more than anticipated, reflecting cautious business sentiment. However, losses were capped by hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts, upbeat Chinese economic indicators, and Beijing’s pledge to stabilize industrial growth. The announcement of a CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project further boosted expectations for infrastructure-led demand. On the supply side, European factories face constraints due to sanctions on major Russian producers, while Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to a sharply reduced premium of $108/ton for Q3 shipments, reflecting weak demand and ample supply. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s three major ports dropped 4.3% in June to 316,700 tonnes. In China, June aluminium production fell 3.23% month-on-month, but July operating capacity remained high. On an annual basis, June output rose 3.4% to 3.81 million tonnes, with H1 2025 production up 3.3% year-on-year to 22.38 million tonnes. Exports of unwrought aluminium and related products climbed to 542,000 tonnes in July, up from 489,000 tonnes in June. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 3.96% to 3,926. Immediate support is at 251.5, with a break potentially leading to 250.5. Resistance is seen at 254.2, and a move above this could target 255.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 250.5-255.9.

* Aluminium prices dropped as weaker-than-expected China factory-gate data weighed on prices.

* China's producer prices fell more than expected in July, underscoring the impact of sluggish domestic demand.

* However downside seen limited bolstered by hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts and upbeat economic data in China.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices fell by 0.84% to settle at 13,206, pressured by higher acreage and increased arrivals in the market. Daily arrivals rose to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals in the previous session, signaling a marginal improvement in supply. The current sowing season has seen favorable rains, with turmeric acreage expected to rise 15–20% compared to last year, as farmers shift from less profitable crops. However, despite the acreage expansion, production gains may be limited due to untimely rains, which could reduce yields by 10–15%, particularly in the Nanded region where small rhizomes and crop rot have been reported. For 2024–25, turmeric acreage stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, up from 3 lakh hectares in the previous season, while 2023–24 production was 10.75 lakh tonnes. Fresh crop arrivals, especially from Duggirala, continue to attract strong demand, with new produce commanding a price premium over older stock due to better quality. Around 50–55% of the total new crop has been traded, and arrivals are expected to continue steadily in the coming weeks. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–May 2025 rose 8.37% year-on-year to 34,162.28 tonnes, with May exports up 10.28% from the same month last year and 28.41% higher than April 2025. The market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.55% to 13,325 contracts alongside a 112 price drop. Immediate support is at 13,086, with the next level at 12,966. Resistance is placed at 13,352, and a breakout above could push prices toward 13,498.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12966-13498.

* Turmeric prices dropped amid increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13778.05 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose 0.55% to settle at 19,105, supported by short covering after recent declines triggered by weak domestic and export demand post-retail season. Traders noted that the fall earlier was mainly due to the end of seasonal buying and sluggish foreign demand, despite comfortable supplies and ample existing stocks. Farmers currently hold about 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Global production is also under watch, with China’s output revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9–10, 10–11, and 10–12 thousand tonnes respectively. Despite reduced overseas supplies from these countries, India’s export demand remains limited. Jeera exports during April–May 2025 dropped 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024. However, May 2025 shipments rose 11.26% year-on-year and 17.68% month-on-month, indicating some recovery. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices fell 1.54% to 19,126.25. The market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 12.2% to 3,531 contracts alongside a price gain of 105. Immediate support lies at 18,980, and a break below could push prices to 18,850. Resistance is seen at 19,180, and a move above this level may lead to a test of 19,250.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18850-19250.

* Jeera gained  on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19126.25 Rupees dropped by -1.54 percent.

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