IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices ended largely unchanged at 160,911, as strength in the Indian Rupee above the 95 level capped gains while investors closely monitored developments surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. Although reports suggested that both nations had agreed to extend a ceasefire and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty remained as U.S. President Donald Trump had yet to formally approve the proposal. At the same time, concerns over persistent inflation and the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates continued to support safe-haven demand. U.S. inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in three years during April, driven primarily by elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicating that rate hikes may be required if inflation fails to ease, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that policy remains appropriately positioned despite near-term inflationary pressures. Fundamental support for gold remains robust. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of central bank purchases to around 50 tonnes per month and expects buying to average 60 tonnes monthly through 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year to 82 tonnes in the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Global gold demand also increased 2% to 1,230.9 tonnes during the first quarter, supported by strong investment flows and continued central bank accumulation. From a technical perspective, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 18.99% to 7,764 contracts while prices remained broadly flat. Immediate support is seen at 159,970, followed by 159,025. On the upside, resistance is placed at 161,725, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 162,535.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 159025-162535.

*  Gold settled flat as firmness in Rupee above 95 level weighed prices and as investors assessed reports of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal.

*  Fed’s Musalem said the central bank may need to increase its policy rate if inflation does not resume easing within the next six months.

*  Fed’s Williams said central bank monetary policy is in the right place given the outlook.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.94% to settle at 266,998, pressured by a stronger Indian Rupee trading above the 95 level and easing geopolitical concerns following reports of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran. Market sentiment improved after indications that both nations are considering a framework that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing fears of supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. Further pressure came from the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid stated that policymakers may need to consider making monetary policy more restrictive and emphasized the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back toward its 2% target. Despite the decline, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of export tax rebate changes. Elevated domestic silver prices in China encouraged global shipments into the country, highlighting robust physical demand. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults declined marginally by 0.1% to 27,454 tonnes at the end of April, indicating continued tightness in available inventories. In India, the government has imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, categories that represented more than 90% of total silver imports last fiscal year. While these measures may reduce global demand, they are expected to tighten domestic supply and support local premiums. India imported a record $12 billion worth of silver in FY2025/26, with April imports rising 157% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.68% to 10,115 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at 264,130, followed by 261,265. Resistance is placed at 269,630, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 272,265.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 261265-272265.

* Silver dropped after Rupee gained above 95 levels as reports of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns.

* Markets assess a proposed US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire

* U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3% to settle at 8,281 as easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran reduced the risk premium that had supported prices in recent weeks. Market sentiment weakened after reports indicated that both countries had reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire and potentially lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the agreement still awaits formal approval from U.S. President Donald Trump and has not been fully confirmed by Iranian authorities, traders responded positively to the possibility of normalized oil flows through one of the world's most critical energy corridors. Additional pressure came from expectations that Saudi Arabia may lower its official selling prices for Asian buyers in July for a second consecutive month. Industry estimates suggest that the premium for Arab Light crude could decline by $3 to $8 per barrel from June levels, reflecting softer regional demand despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. Furthermore, OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million barrels previously, citing the economic impact of the Iran conflict. However, the group raised its 2027 demand growth estimate to 1.54 million barrels per day, signaling expectations of a longer-term recovery. Supporting fundamentals were seen from supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, where production at the Chevron-led Tengiz oil field reportedly dropped sharply following an accident. In the United States, crude inventories declined by 3.33 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks also posted significant draws, indicating healthy fuel demand and tighter inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 2.09% to 12,393 contracts while prices fell by ?256. Immediate support is seen at 8,147, followed by 8,014. Resistance is placed at 8,471, and a move above this level could trigger further recovery toward 8,662.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8014-8662.

* Crude oil fell after reports that the U.S. and Iran ‌had reached agreement on a potential ceasefire extension.

* Oil output at Kazakhstan's Tengiz field shrank to 5,000-10,000 metric tons a day after an accident

* Saudi Arabia is likely to cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in ‌July for a second month.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas prices extended gains and settled 0.67% higher at 316, supported by forecasts for warmer weather across the United States and expectations of stronger cooling demand in the coming weeks. Rising temperatures are expected to increase electricity consumption for air conditioning, thereby boosting natural gas demand from power generators. Since nearly 40% of U.S. electricity generation comes from gas-fired plants, weather-driven demand remains a key price driver. Market sentiment was further supported by a smaller-than-expected storage injection, indicating that supply additions were not as strong as anticipated despite the shoulder season. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas inventories increased by 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the week ended May 22, slightly below market expectations of a 95 bcf build. The increase was also lower than the 104 bcf injection recorded during the same period last year and below the five-year average build of 97 bcf. Meanwhile, average gas production in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day in May from 109.8 bcfd in April, suggesting a modest tightening in supply conditions. Weather forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures through mid-June, supporting expectations of higher power-sector consumption. Germany’s gas storage levels also improved, reaching 31% of capacity, reflecting ongoing replenishment efforts ahead of the winter season. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production to rise to a record 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and further to 115 bcfd in 2027, led by growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions. However, domestic consumption is expected to decline slightly in 2026 before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2.57% to 19,517 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at 311.8, followed by 307.7. Resistance is placed at 321.2, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 326.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 307.7-326.5.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for warmer weather and more air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.

* U.S. gas output dips in May, LNG export flows fall due to plant maintenance

* EIA said energy firms added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 22.

Copper

Copper settled lower by 0.86% at 1,348.75 on MCX, pressured by the firmness in the Indian Rupee above the 95 level and improving sentiment surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions weighed on crude oil and the U.S. dollar, reducing inflation concerns and dampening safe-haven demand for industrial metals. Despite the decline, underlying market fundamentals remained supportive as China’s central bank urged banks to increase lending, reinforcing expectations of stronger economic activity and industrial demand. Additional support came from tightening supply conditions. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 3.8% from the previous week, while available stocks in LME warehouses continued to fall. Supply concerns also persisted in Chile, where shortages of sulfur and sulfuric acid have forced refiners to reduce operating rates. Chilean copper production declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan maintained its expectation of restoring full production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by the end of 2027, although reduced recovery guidance for the second half of 2026 continues to raise concerns over concentrate availability. On the demand side, China’s copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons, supported by robust investment in power infrastructure. Power grid spending surged 37% during January-March, highlighting strong consumption prospects. However, the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.39% to 17,332 lots while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at 1,343.2, followed by 1,337.6. Resistance is placed at 1,357.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,365.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1337.6-1365.6.

* Copper prices dropped on MCX due to Rupee firmness above 95 levels as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal pushed oil prices lower.

* Copper output in Chile, plummeted by 13.8% year-on-year in April to 399.954 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.

* Commerzbank expects copper prices to increase to 14,250 by mid-2027

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.68% to settle at 365.05 as investors remained cautious while awaiting further developments regarding a potential extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement. A firmer U.S. dollar also weighed on sentiment, making base metals less attractive for overseas buyers. Additional pressure came from a 0.7% increase in zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, indicating relatively comfortable near-term availability in the Chinese market. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to ongoing supply disruptions that continue to tighten the global zinc market. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. Similarly, Kazzinc’s zinc and lead operations in Kazakhstan continue to run at reduced capacity after a recent explosion. These disruptions have reinforced concerns about refined metal availability, particularly as LME zinc inventories remain at just 111,250 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group previously projected a refined zinc deficit of 19,000 tons for 2026, highlighting the market’s fragile supply balance. However, gains were capped by expectations of improving mine supply. Swedish miner Boliden is set to resume production at its Garpenberg mine during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc output by 3.2% year-on-year in the first half of FY2026/27. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, although the first-quarter surplus widened to 89,000 tons compared with 44,000 tons a year earlier. Goldman Sachs expects a modest zinc surplus in 2026 but forecasts tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.2% to 2,439 lots while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at 362.9, followed by 360.6. Resistance is placed at 368.2, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 371.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 360.6-371.2.

* Zinc edged lower as investors waited for more news about a potential deal to extend a ceasefire in Iran and as the dollar firmed.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.7% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* Swedish miner Boliden said production at its Garpenberg zinc mine will be resumed in the second quarter.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 0.40% to settle at 385.95 as traders booked profits following a strong rally driven by prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East. Despite the correction, the broader market outlook remained supported by tightening global supply conditions and improving industrial activity in China. Data showing Chinese industrial profits growing at the fastest pace since November 2023 provided support to the base metals complex and reinforced expectations of stable demand from the world’s largest aluminium consumer. Supply-side concerns continue to dominate the aluminium market. The premium of the nearby aluminium contract over the three-month benchmark on the London Metal Exchange surged to $97 per metric ton, the highest level in 19 years, reflecting severe tightness in prompt supply. Available LME aluminium inventories have fallen by 39% since the onset of the Iran conflict and currently stand at a one-year low of 254,625 tons. Additional concerns stem from Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, which is considering export quotas that could further tighten raw material availability. In the Gulf region, aluminium production dropped sharply, with output falling 35% year-on-year in April to 330,000 metric tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Demand indicators remained encouraging. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March, while exports jumped 15% in April to 598,000 metric tons, the highest monthly level in at least a year. Chinese aluminium production also remained robust, rising 3.1% year-on-year in April to 3.87 million metric tons, supported by healthy profit margins. Meanwhile, aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports declined 10.8% from the previous month, signaling firm regional demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.25% to 3,985 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 384.0, followed by 382.1. Resistance is placed at 387.5, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 389.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 382.1-389.1.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East.

* Available LME aluminium stocks have fallen to a one-year low of 254,625 tons, daily LME data showed.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower by 0.17% to settle at 16,188 as increased arrivals across key producing regions created temporary supply pressure in domestic markets. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, while higher arrivals of late-harvested, moisture-rich turmeric led to aggressive discounting of average-quality produce. Additionally, lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt export logistics, prompting some overseas buyers to delay purchases. The absence of major weather concerns during the post-harvest period also reduced the weather-related premium that had previously supported prices. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality stocks. Arrivals in major markets across Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak season, creating localized supply constraints. Quality issues caused by rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas have reduced the availability of export-grade “Double Polished” turmeric. Farmers and stockists in key markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad continue to hold inventories in anticipation of higher prices, while premium “Salem Fali” varieties are reportedly commanding prices of up to ?20,000 per quintal. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, indicating tighter overall availability. Export demand remains supportive despite recent fluctuations. Turmeric exports in March 2026 declined 16.8% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes but improved 10.14% compared to February, reflecting a recovery in shipment activity. Cumulative exports for April 2025 to March 2026 remained largely stable at 175,896 tonnes, highlighting resilient long-term international demand. Additional support is coming from increased inquiries from Bangladesh and growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.06% to 20,525 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 16,120, followed by 16,050. Resistance is placed at 16,300, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 16,410.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16050-16410.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut" in local mandis.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15790.95 Rupees gained by 0.68 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.42% to settle at 19,195 as increased arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions in Rajasthan eased earlier concerns over supply tightness. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting more quickly than expected, resulting in a sharp rise in market arrivals. Farmers also continued to liquidate stocks to generate funds for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding further selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, creating a temporary supply surplus that weighed on prices. Despite the weakness, downside remained limited due to concerns regarding crop quality and lower overall production. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising concerns over the availability of premium-grade produce. Unseasonal rainfall also delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary supply disruptions. While overall stocks remain available, the volume of high-quality Sortex-grade carryover stocks is reported to be lower than last year, supporting premium market segments. Production estimates indicate a nearly 27% decline in Gujarat output due to reduced acreage and lower yields, while disease outbreaks in key growing regions have affected both quality and productivity. Market sentiment continues to receive support from expectations of stronger international demand. Industry estimates suggest national cumin production may decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Additionally, adverse weather has reduced production prospects in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, potentially improving India's export competitiveness. Although Jeera exports during March 2026 fell 15.54% year-on-year to 14,642.73 tonnes, shipments increased 17.64% from February, indicating a recovery in export demand. However, cumulative exports for April-March 2026 remained lower by 14.74% compared to the previous year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.71% to 10,011 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 19,080, followed by 18,950. Resistance is placed at 19,410, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 19,610.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18950-19610.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19771.05 Rupees dropped by -0.52 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views