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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.25% at 159,081, supported by weakness in the US dollar and improving sentiment around potential US-Iran negotiations. Optimism over a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude sharply lower, easing fears of energy-led inflation and supporting precious metals. However, gains remained capped after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled that the Fed should remove its easing bias and keep the possibility of further rate hikes open until inflation clearly moves back toward the 2% target. Persistent inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates continued to limit upside momentum in non-yielding assets like gold. On the fundamental front, central bank demand remained a major supportive factor for bullion prices. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of official sector buying to around 50 tonnes per month and expects purchases to average nearly 60 tonnes monthly through 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold forecast to $5,243 per ounce but maintained a long-term bullish target of $6,000 by year-end 2026. India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year to 82 tonnes during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery demand for the first time on record, while total consumption rose 10.2% to 151 tonnes. Globally, first-quarter gold demand increased 2% to 1,230.9 tonnes, supported by strong investment flows and steady central bank purchases. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 11.7% to 4,943 lots while prices gained ?402. Gold is currently holding support at 158,830, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 158,585. On the upside, resistance is seen at 159,410, and sustained buying above this level may extend gains toward 159,745.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158585-159745.

*  Gold rises as weaker dollar, US-Iran deal hopes improve inflation outlook

*  Hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude down more than 5%, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation.

*  Weak US consumer confidence and expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes continued to weigh on non-yielding assets.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply higher by 1.79% at 276,716, supported by weakness in the US dollar and softer crude oil prices amid hopes surrounding potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. However, market sentiment remained cautious after US President Donald Trump stated that his administration would not rush into a deal with Iran, tempering expectations of an immediate breakthrough. Additionally, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin maintained that monetary policy remains appropriately positioned to handle economic shocks, while emphasizing concerns over inflation and economic growth risks. Traders are currently pricing in a 58% probability of at least one 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike by December, according to CME FedWatch data. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8 in May, reflecting persistent inflation concerns linked to higher fuel prices and supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamentally, silver continued to receive strong support from robust Chinese demand and tightening global supply dynamics. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical average, driven by aggressive retail investment demand and heavy stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers ahead of export tax rebate changes. In India, the government imposed immediate restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, categories accounting for more than 90% of annual silver imports. India’s silver imports had already touched a record $12 billion during FY2025/26, while April imports jumped 157% year-on-year. Rising ETF inflows and investment-led demand also continued to support the broader silver market outlook. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 3.28% to 9,175 lots while prices gained ?4,870. Silver is currently finding support at 275,490, with further weakness potentially testing 274,260 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 277,675, and a sustained move above this level may trigger further gains toward 278,630.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 274260-278630.

* Silver prices rose supported by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.

* Investors weighed prospects of a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices witnessed a sharp decline of 5.91% to settle at 8,626 amid improving optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. Sentiment weakened after markets anticipated easing geopolitical tensions despite continued disagreements over critical issues, including blockades around the Strait of Hormuz. While both nations downplayed the possibility of an immediate agreement, traders reduced risk premiums in crude prices. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington would either secure a favorable agreement or pursue alternative measures against Iran, while Iran reiterated that current discussions are focused primarily on ending the war rather than nuclear negotiations. Additionally, expectations that OPEC+ may implement only a modest production increase in July also weighed on prices. Fundamentally, mixed global supply-demand indicators continued to influence market direction. China’s refined fuel exports for June are expected to rise only marginally as the country prioritizes domestic demand requirements. Meanwhile, Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $100 per barrel, highlighting tightening inventory conditions and a potential global supply deficit of 6–8 million barrels per day. Supporting this outlook, US crude inventories fell sharply by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 2.9 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also declined by 1.5 million barrels, while crude stockpiles at Cushing dropped by 1.6 million barrels. However, distillate inventories unexpectedly increased by 372,000 barrels, limiting bullish momentum. OPEC also reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd previously, citing weaker consumption expectations amid geopolitical uncertainty. Technically, the market remained under long liquidation as open interest declined sharply by 21.12% to 11,810 lots while prices dropped by ?542. Crude oil is currently finding support at 8,502, with further downside potentially testing 8,379 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,814, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 9,003.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8379-9003.

* Crude oil dropped as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal.

* Washington cites progress in Iran conflict resolution

* Trump says there is no rush for Iran deal, US blockade stays

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled sharply lower by 4.52% at 277 amid forecasts for milder weather conditions and expectations of weaker near-term demand. Market sentiment remained under pressure after updated weather projections indicated cooler temperatures next week than previously anticipated, reducing expected cooling demand from the power generation sector. Additional weakness came from elevated storage levels and higher-than-expected inventory injections, reinforcing concerns about ample supply availability in the US market. According to the Energy Information Administration, US energy firms injected 101 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended May 15, exceeding market expectations of a 95-bcf build and remaining above the five-year average increase of 92 bcf for the same period. Total gas inventories increased to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 2.3% above last year’s levels and 6.5% higher than the five-year seasonal average, highlighting comfortable supply conditions ahead of the summer demand season. Further pressure also emerged from softer LNG export activity. Gas flows to major US LNG export terminals declined from a record 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance at facilities including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG. However, some downside remained limited after reports indicated that three US LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China during June, marking the first such shipments since February 2025. Longer-term fundamentals remained mixed as the EIA projected US dry gas production to rise to record highs of 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic demand is expected to decline slightly next year before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 14.12% to 10,666 lots while prices dropped by 13.1 rupees. Natural gas is holding support at 272.4, with further downside likely towards 267.8, while resistance is seen at 285.4 and 293.8 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 281.1-302.1.

* Natural gas gains on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and a drop in output in recent weeks.

* EIA report showed energy firms injected 101 bcf of gas into storage, above market expectations for a 95-bcf build.

* Flows to major US LNG export facilities declined from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May.

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 0.35% at 1,367.45, supported by improving investor sentiment after signs emerged that the United States and Iran were moving closer toward a potential agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Easing concerns over inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes also supported industrial metals. However, US President Donald Trump maintained that Washington would continue its blockade measures until a formal deal is finalized, limiting broader market optimism. Additional support for copper prices continued to come from strong long-term demand expectations tied to global electrification, renewable energy expansion, artificial intelligence infrastructure and power grid investments. At the same time, ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, particularly shortages of sulfuric acid used in copper smelting, continued to tighten market conditions. Fundamentally, China remained a major driver of global copper demand. China’s refined copper production in April rose 1.6% year-on-year to 1.27 million metric tons, while unwrought copper imports increased 3.2% to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons. Strong investment in high-voltage power infrastructure, with grid spending rising 37% during January-March 2026, significantly boosted consumption. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange copper inventories declined to a ten-week low of 275,525 metric tons, reflecting tightening global supplies. Concerns over mine output also persisted after copper production in Chile declined nearly 6% during the first quarter, while concentrate imports into China fell sharply by 20% year-on-year. Although the International Copper Study Group expects the refined copper market to shift into a modest surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026, supply risks from Indonesia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to provide support to prices. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 11.56% to settle at 13,301 lots while prices gained ?4.8. Copper is currently finding support at 1,359.7, with further downside likely to test 1,352 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,372.4, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,377.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1352-1377.4.

* Copper gained as investor sentiment strengthened on signs that the US and Iran were moving closer to a deal.

* Trump said Washington would maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until a formal agreement is finalized, adding that he would not “rush” into a deal.

* Supply concerns linked to the Middle East conflict, particularly shortages of sulfur, continued to underpin prices.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 0.94% at 370.75, supported by weakness in the US dollar and softer crude oil prices amid hopes of a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Expectations that a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease global inflationary pressures and support economic activity improved overall sentiment across base metals. Additional strength in zinc prices came from tightening supply conditions following major disruptions at key smelting facilities. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru after a fire damaged infrastructure, while Glencore-owned Kazzinc continued operating at reduced capacity following an explosion at its zinc and lead plants in Kazakhstan. These disruptions intensified concerns over near-term refined zinc availability. Fundamentally, the zinc market remained supported by low inventories and expectations of a refined metal deficit despite signs of improving mine supply. London Metal Exchange zinc inventories stood at only 111,250 tons, representing less than three days of global consumption, highlighting tight physical availability. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons this year, although the global surplus narrowed to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February. China’s central bank also reiterated its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy and supporting domestic demand and industrial activity, which could underpin metals consumption. However, upside momentum remained capped as Swedish miner Boliden announced production resumption at its Garpenberg zinc mine during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining planned a 3.2% increase in refined zinc output for the first half of FY2026/27. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also rose 1.5% during the week, indicating moderate supply improvement. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 13.59% to settle at 1,789 lots while prices gained ?3.45. Zinc is currently finding support at 368.8, with further downside likely to test 366.7 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 372.1, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 373.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 366.7-373.3.

* Zinc gains as the dollar and oil prices fell on hopes of a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran.

* Prices also gained supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* The International Lead and Zinc Study Group had expected there to be a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled marginally higher by 0.16% at 384.15, supported by persistent supply concerns linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Although inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.4% during the week, downside remained limited as reduced supply from Gulf producers continued to tighten global availability. The Middle East accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, and disruptions in the region have significantly lifted premiums in the London Metal Exchange cash market. The premium of the LME cash contract over the three-month forward climbed to a 19-year high near $84 per ton, reflecting severe near-term supply tightness. Expectations of prolonged deficits and lower inventories continued to underpin prices despite some recovery in production from regional smelters. Fundamentally, bullish sentiment remained supported by tightening global inventories and strong demand expectations. Citi projected a potential path toward $4,000 per metric ton within the next three months if demand destruction remains limited, while BOFA advanced its $4,000 forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026. Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports declined 10.8% month-on-month to 249,500 metric tons at the end of April, indicating tightening Asian supplies. Meanwhile, primary aluminium production in the Gulf dropped sharply by 35% year-on-year to 330,000 metric tons in April due to disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Global primary aluminium production also declined 2.1% year-on-year to 5.922 million tons. In contrast, China continued to maintain strong production growth, with April aluminium output rising 3.1% to 3.87 million metric tons, while exports surged 15% year-on-year as higher overseas prices encouraged shipments. Chinese aluminium imports also rose 6.9% during March amid elevated global prices and supply concerns. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 8.92% to settle at 3,260 lots while prices gained ?0.6. Aluminium is currently finding support at 381.6, with further downside likely to test 379.1 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 385.7, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 387.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 379.1-387.3.

* Aluminium dropped as inventories in SHFE warehouses rose 1.4% from last Friday.

* Global primary aluminium output in April fell 2.1% year on year to 5.922 million tonnes - IAI

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 249,500 metric tons at the end of April, down about 10.8% from the previous month

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled unchanged at 16,230 as bullish supply concerns and increased market arrivals kept prices range-bound during the session. Arrivals across key mandis in Maharashtra and Telangana remained lower than normal for the peak marketing season, creating short-term supply tightness. Quality concerns due to moisture damage and rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric. In major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists continued to hold back quality stocks in anticipation of prices moving above ?18,000 per quintal. Strong demand for high-grade “Salem Fali” turmeric, which is trading near ?20,000 per quintal, also supported overall market sentiment. However, upside momentum remained capped due to rising arrivals and aggressive selling by farmers seeking liquidity ahead of Kharif sowing activities. Increased inflow of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric created temporary oversupply conditions in several local mandis, resulting in price discounts for average-quality produce. Profit booking by traders and stockists who accumulated inventories at lower levels during March further added selling pressure. Export demand remained mixed as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics and delay fresh commitments from overseas buyers. Nevertheless, support persisted due to lower carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last year. Additional support came from rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric. The Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production estimates to 1.140 million tons also strengthened long-term bullish sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased by 1.62% to settle at 20,385 lots while prices remained unchanged. Turmeric is currently finding support at 16,064, with further downside likely to test 15,898 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 16,392, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 16,554.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15898-16554.

* Turmeric settled flat as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly  to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15644.25 Rupees gained by 0.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled higher by 0.85% at 19,675 amid concerns over crop damage and tightening availability of premium-quality supplies. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms across Rajasthan affected standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears regarding lower availability of high-grade “A-grade” and “Sortex” quality jeera. Additionally, unseasonal rainfall across North-West India delayed drying and processing activities of the new crop, creating temporary supply disruptions in key producing regions. Although carry-forward stocks remain available, the proportion of superior-quality stocks is lower compared to last year, which continued to support premium pricing in the physical market. Market sentiment also remained supported by expectations of stronger Chinese buying interest beginning from mid-April for inventory replenishment. However, upside momentum remained limited due to rising fresh crop arrivals and aggressive farmer selling. Improved weather conditions across Rajasthan and Gujarat enabled faster harvesting activities, resulting in a sudden supply surge instead of the earlier anticipated staggered arrivals. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks actively to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, adding consistent selling pressure in mandis. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi stabilized at elevated levels near 28,500 bags, creating visible near-term oversupply conditions. Despite this, overall production prospects remained lower compared to last year. Industry estimates indicate cumin production in India may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower acreage and weaker yields. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected around 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has also reduced production estimates in China to around 70–80 thousand tons, supporting the broader price outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 1.46% to settle at 10,323 lots while prices gained ?165. Jeera is currently finding support at 19,460, with further downside likely to test 19,220 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 19,830, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 19,960.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19220-19960.

* Jeera gains as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the standing crop at the harvest stage.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap.

* While stocks exist, the percentage of high-quality "Sortex" grade carryover is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19927.9 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views