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Gold

Gold yesterday settled sharply lower by -2.52% at 123561, pressured by a wave of hawkish commentary from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, which dampened expectations for a December rate cut. Although the U.S. government reopened after a historic 43-day shutdown, uncertainty persists as October unemployment data may not be released, leaving markets without key economic indicators. Fed officials highlighted persistent inflation risks and a resilient labour market, prompting traders to reassess their outlook. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December quarter-point cut has fallen to 49%, down from 64% earlier. Physical gold demand across major Asian hubs remained subdued due to elevated prices. India saw the sharpest impact, with dealer discounts widening to $43 per ounce, the highest in five months, compared to $14 last week. The IBJA urged the government to close a loophole allowing duty-free imports of platinum-alloy jewellery containing 90% gold. In China, gold traded between an $8 discount and a $4 premium, while Singapore saw premiums of $1.50–$3.50, Hong Kong $0.50–$2.50, and Japan at par to $0.50 premium. The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tons, the highest on record for any quarter, driven by strong investment demand. ETF inflows surged 134%, while bar and coin demand jumped 17%, offsetting a 23% fall in jewellery fabrication. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.06%. Gold now finds support at 121220, below which it may test 118885, while resistance is placed at 126470, with further upside potential toward 129385.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 118885-129385.

* Gold dropped as hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials clouded prospects for a December rate cut.

* The U.S. government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown that had disrupted key economic data flows.

* Physical gold demand across major Asian markets was subdued as elevated prices curtailed buying activity.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled sharply lower by -3.97% at 156018, dragged down by a broad market sell-off following hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, which dampened hopes for a December rate cut. Traders reduced the probability of a December cut to below 50%, from nearly 65% earlier, as Fed officials questioned the need for further easing given economic resilience and lingering inflation uncertainty. The conclusion of the longest U.S. government shutdown has left policymakers without crucial economic data, adding to market caution. On the physical front, silver holdings in London vaults rose to 26,255 tons, up 6.8% month-on-month, easing the liquidity squeeze in the world’s largest OTC precious metals hub. October saw 1,674 tons flow into London, helping cool short-term borrowing rates, though they remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, Comex inventories dropped by 1,568 tons from early-October highs, despite remaining substantially higher year-on-year due to tariff-related uncertainty. Investor interest remains firm, with silver ETP holdings up 18% YTD, equivalent to a massive 187Moz rise, driven by concerns over stagflation, geopolitical tensions, Fed independence, and U.S. debt. Global silver demand for 2025 is projected to fall 4% y/y to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand expected to drop 2% amid global uncertainty and thrifting. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 2.32%. Support lies at 151815, below which 147610 may be tested, while resistance is at 161780, with potential toward 167540.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 147610-167540.

* Silver dropped on a broader market sell-off, sparked by hawkish remarks Fed, dimming hopes for a December interest rate cut.

* Traders cut the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed to below 50%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week.

* Fed Kashkari that he did not support the Fed's interest-rate cut in October given the economy's resilience.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled 2.18% higher at 5342, supported by renewed supply concerns after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone strike that damaged an oil depot, a vessel, and nearby infrastructure. The attack, which injured crew members and disrupted operations at one of Russia’s key export hubs, heightened fears of supply tightening in an already sensitive geopolitical environment. Gains were tempered by U.S. inventory data, as the EIA reported a strong 6.4-million-barrel rise in crude stocks, far exceeding expectations of a 2-million-barrel build, highlighting near-term demand weakness. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined modestly, indicating mixed signals for refined fuel consumption. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. oil production will average 13.59 million bpd this year, a new record, with only a slight dip expected next year, driven by stronger-than-expected August output. Global oil and liquid fuels production is forecast at 106 million bpd, while demand is seen at 104.1 million bpd, reinforcing expectations of a supply-heavy market. The IEA also raised its supply growth forecast, signalling deeper surpluses into 2026. It expects global output to rise 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026, with supply consistently outpacing demand by wide margins. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest plunging 32.65% as prices gained 114 rupees. Support lies at 5284, with potential decline toward 5227 if breached. Resistance is placed at 5379, and a breakout above this could push prices toward 5417.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5227-5417.

* Crude oil prices climbed boosted by supply fears after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports

* OPEC report that global oil supply would match demand in 2026, in a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.

* EIA reported a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell less than expected.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled 3.24% lower at 400.4, pressured by profit-booking as traders weighed short-term mild weather forecasts against strong LNG export demand and expectations of colder temperatures in early December. Weather models indicate a brief warm spell through mid-month, followed by a sharper temperature drop that could revive heating demand. Despite the price decline, U.S. LNG exports remain exceptionally strong, with November flows averaging 17.8 bcfd, above the previous record of 16.7 bcfd in October, supported by steady European demand amid reduced Russian deliveries. U.S. natural gas output in the Lower 48 climbed to a fresh record of 109 bcfd in November, contributing to comfortable storage levels. The latest EIA data showed a 45 bcf injection, higher than expectations of 34 bcf, bringing inventories to 3,960 bcf, slightly below last year but 4.5% above the five-year average. The IEA signalled that global oil and gas demand may continue rising until 2050, suggesting a more gradual energy transition. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected record U.S. gas production and demand through 2025–26, with output expected to rise from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, while consumption climbs to 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 34.85% as prices fell by 13.4 rupees. Support is placed at 389, below which 377.5 may be tested. Resistance lies at 412, and a breakout above this could open the path toward 423.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 377.5-423.5.

* Natural gas fell on profit booking as traders balanced short-term mild weather forecasts.

* US gas output in the Lower 48 states hit 109 bcfd in November, a fresh record, supporting ample storage levels now 4% above seasonal norms.

* LNG exports remain robust, with flows to the eight major US export facilities averaging 17.8 bcfd in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled 0.55% lower at 1008.5, pressured by weak Chinese economic data and fading expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year. China’s factory output and retail sales grew at their slowest pace in over a year, renewing concerns over demand in the world’s largest copper consumer and adding pressure on policymakers to support the $19 trillion export-driven economy. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 4.9% to 109,407 tons, signalling some tightening in near-term availability. Speculation also increased that Beijing could soon target the copper refining sector to reduce overcapacity, following calls from the country’s nonferrous metals association to tighten oversight of new smelting projects. On the supply front, fresh production data highlighted expectations of a tighter market next year. Output at Chile’s Codelco fell 7% in September, while production at the Glencore–Anglo American joint venture dropped 26%. BHP’s Escondida, however, saw output rise 17%. Disruptions at multiple mines continue to support the outlook for lower copper concentrate supply in 2025. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a 178,000-tonne surplus in 2025, shifting to a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026. Mine output is seen rising 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, while refined usage is expected to grow 3% and 2.1% respectively. Meanwhile, China’s October copper imports fell 9.7% to 438,000 tons, reflecting reduced restocking at high prices. Technically, copper remains under long liquidation, with open interest slipping 0.67%. Support is at 1000.6, with a break exposing 992.8. Resistance stands at 1016.1, above which 1023.8 may be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 992.8-1023.8.

* Copper declined after weak economic data from China fanned concerns over demand.

* China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 4.9% from a week ago to 109,407 tons.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled 0.77% lower at 303.35, weighed down by soft manufacturing PMIs from both China and the United States, which dampened broader industrial sentiment. China’s official manufacturing PMI contracted for a seventh consecutive month in October, falling to 49.0, while the private-sector RatingDog PMI slipped to 50.6, missing expectations. Weak factory activity in the world’s largest metals consumer raised concerns over near-term demand. However, October economic data showed some improvement, with China’s CPI rising 0.2% and PPI deflation easing to -2.1%, signalling stabilizing domestic conditions. Zinc stock levels continued to tighten globally. LME inventories dropped to 35,875 tons, near the lowest since February 2023, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks slid 8% over the past two weeks to 100,208 tons, reinforcing supply-side support. Global refined zinc production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025, yet inventories outside China remain extremely low. According to ILZSG data, the global zinc market surplus rose to 47,900 tons in August, bringing the year-to-date surplus to 154,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons a year earlier. China’s refined zinc output showed mixed trends—September production fell 4% month-on-month but remained over 20% higher year-on-year, while October output is expected to rise 4% MoM and 22% YoY amid varied smelter maintenance schedules. Technically, zinc remains under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 7.56% alongside a price decline of 2.35 rupees. Support lies at 301.4, with further downside toward 299.4 if breached. Resistance is seen at 305.5, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 307.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.4-307.6.

* Zinc dropped as soft manufacturing PMIs in China and the US pressed against industrial sentiment.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gains 0.70% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* The producer price index in October fell 2.1% year-on-year, easing from a 2.3% decline in September, while the consumer price index grew 0.2%.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled 0.92% lower at 270.5, pressured by weak macro data from China that raised fresh concerns about demand. China’s industrial output grew 4.9% and retail sales rose 2.9% in October, both the slowest in more than a year, while new home prices fell 0.5% MoM, the sharpest decline since October 2024. Lending activity also weakened, with new bank loans dropping sharply and missing expectations, signalling subdued private demand amid the ongoing property downturn. However, the downside remains cushioned by tightening global supply signals. China rolled out additional growth-support measures, the U.S. moved closer to reopening government operations, and several major smelters and refineries faced disruptions. Notable issues include curtailed output at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter, Alcoa’s closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia, and reduced production at Century Aluminium’s Iceland facility. Meanwhile, speculative money has flowed into LME aluminium as investors anticipate tightening markets with China nearing its 45 million-ton capacity cap. The European aluminium premium has surged to $328, its highest since February, reflecting tightening physical availability. China’s aluminium imports rose 35.4% YoY in September, while unwrought aluminium exports reached 542,000 tons, supporting the improving trade flows. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 17.98% as prices dropped by 2.5 rupees. Aluminium has support at 268.8, with the next level at 267.1, while resistance is seen at 272.6, and a break above could lift prices toward 274.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 267.1-274.7.

* Aluminium dropped amid a slew of weak China data raised demand concerns.

* China's industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in October and retail sales rose 2.9%, both the slowest in more than a year.

* New loans by Chinese banks fell sharply in October from the month prior, according to data from the People's Bank of China.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled 4.3% lower at 14,300, pressured by expectations of higher acreage this season due to favourable rains. However, the downside remained limited as crop damage concerns persisted in key growing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, where excess rainfall has affected yields. In Erode, inflows from these states have risen, but continuous rains have triggered disease outbreaks and created storage challenges due to high humidity. Additionally, heavy rainfall in Nanded has reportedly damaged around 15% of the crop area, adding to supply concerns. Farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals for the last two days, keeping market participants focused on weather developments and crop conditions. While preliminary estimates indicate a 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage, driven by better sowing conditions and comparatively lower returns from alternative crops, quality-related premiums are supporting prices at some markets. At Duggirala, strong buying interest continues, and new crop arrivals are commanding higher prices due to superior quality. Daily trading volumes remain healthy at 1,000–1,200 bags, with nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Export demand remains encouraging. Turmeric exports during April–August 2025 rose 3.31% to 80,156 tonnes, while August shipments grew 7.27% YoY and 13.71% MoM, reflecting firm overseas interest. Technically, turmeric is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 4.67% to 10,815 and prices falling by 642 rupees. Support is placed at 13,896, with the next level at 13,494, while resistance is seen at 14,850, and a breakout could push prices toward 15,402.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13494-15402.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14942.1 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled 0.41% higher at 20,695, supported by short covering after recent declines driven by sluggish export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders noted that overseas buyers remain largely inactive, with existing domestic stocks sufficient to meet the current export requirements. Comfortable supplies and subdued export interest continue to pressure sentiment. However, the downside remains limited due to lower arrivals during the Diwali holiday period and some level-based buying. Sentiment also improved after the GST Council reduced the GST rate on jeera to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG-linked demand and support export competitiveness. On the supply front, farmers reportedly hold around 20 lakh bags of jeera, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season’s end, leaving a large carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected to be similar to last year, supported by favourable sowing conditions. India’s output is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, compared with last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags, and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during April–August 2025 dropped 17.02%, though August shipments rose 3.24% YoY but declined 6% MoM, reflecting inconsistent export momentum. Technically, the market is in fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.86% to 3,147 and prices gaining 85 rupees. Support is seen at 20,560, with the next level at 20,430, while resistance lies at 20,810, and a breakout may lift prices toward 20,930.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20430-20930.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* Jeera exports during Apr - Aug 2025, dropped by 17.02 percent at 85977.39 tonnes as compared to 103614.50 tonnes exported during Apr - Aug 2024.

* Traders attributed the fall mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity on the part of foreign buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20453.3 Rupees dropped by -0.47 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views