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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 2.12% to settle at 158547 as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of bullion as a safe-haven asset. Persistent tensions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices strengthened inflation concerns, leading markets to largely rule out Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in April, the highest increase in 14 months, while manufacturing output climbed 0.6%, reflecting resilient economic momentum and reinforcing expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment. India’s decision to raise gold import tariffs to 15% from 6% significantly impacted domestic demand sentiment. Dealers in India quoted record discounts of up to $207 per ounce over official domestic prices as jewellery demand weakened sharply and scrap supply increased. Despite weaker physical buying, investment demand remained robust. According to the World Gold Council, India’s gold ETF inflows surged 186% year-on-year during the March quarter to a record 20 metric tons. Investment demand in India rose 52% to 82 metric tons, surpassing jewellery demand for the first time on record. Globally, gold demand increased 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons during the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong bar, coin, and central bank purchases. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 8.8% to 7227 while prices dropped by 3431 rupees. Gold is finding immediate support at 157470, with further downside likely toward 156390. On the upside, resistance is seen at 160310, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 162070.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 156390-162070.

* Gold dropped as surging Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. ‌dollar dulled its appeal.

*  Inflation data has shown consumers and businesses are starting to see big increases in price pressures as a result of the war.

*  ANZ lowers gold's year – end target price to $5,600/oz from $5,800/oz

Silver

Silver prices plunged sharply by 6.6% to settle at 271886 as rising U.S. inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy triggered heavy selling pressure across precious metals. Recent U.S. economic data showed producer, import, and export prices recorded their strongest monthly gains since 2022, while annual inflation accelerated to its highest level since 2023 due to elevated energy costs linked to the prolonged Iran conflict and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have now fully priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, with some traders even positioning for a potential rate hike by December. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari reinforced the hawkish outlook, emphasizing that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation under control. Additional pressure emerged after UBS reduced its forecast for global silver investment demand to 300 million ounces from above 400 million ounces, citing softer industrial demand and rising mine supply. The bank also sharply lowered its estimate for the global silver supply deficit to around 60–70 million ounces from an earlier projection of 300 million ounces. However, HSBC maintained a constructive long-term outlook by raising its silver price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, supported by expectations of stronger coin and bar demand. Meanwhile, China’s March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic sector ahead of export tax rebate changes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 1.31% to 8247 while prices dropped by 19216 rupees. Silver is getting support at 265850, with further downside seen at 259820. Resistance is placed at 280565, and a move above this level could trigger further recovery toward 289250.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 259820-289250.

* Silver dropped as concerns over rising US inflation and potential rate hikes weighed on the market.

* Recent data revealed that US producer, import, and export prices rose at their fastest pace since 2022 in April.

* Markets have now fully priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, with some traders even wagering on a potential hike by December.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rallied sharply by 3.66% to settle at 10080 as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to intensify global supply concerns. Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict remained stalled, while tanker traffic through the strategic waterway stayed severely restricted, allowing only limited vessel movement from the Persian Gulf. Mixed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the need to keep the Strait open added to market uncertainty and volatility. The International Energy Agency warned that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers have already exceeded 1 billion barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day of oil supply currently shut in, marking one of the most severe disruptions in recent history. Support also came from tightening U.S. inventory data. U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 4.306 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels during the week ended May 8, exceeding expectations for a 2.1 million barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also fell sharply by 1.702 million barrels. Gasoline inventories dropped by 4.084 million barrels, reflecting firm fuel demand, while refinery utilization rates increased by 0.5 percentage points. However, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd previously, citing the economic impact of the ongoing Iran conflict, although it raised its 2027 outlook expecting demand recovery. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 7.21% to settle at 8912 while prices gained 356 rupees. Crude oil is getting immediate support at 9875, with further downside support at 9670. Resistance is seen at 10217, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 10354.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9670-10354.

* Crude oil climbed as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, keeping global supply concerns elevated.

* IEA warned that the oil market could remain severely undersupplied until October even if fighting ends next month.

* Oil inventories continue to tighten, while tanker traffic through Hormuz remains extremely limited.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 2.38% to settle at 284 as the market reacted positively to lower production levels and an in-line storage injection report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA reported that utilities injected 85 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 8, matching market expectations and remaining below the 109 bcf build recorded during the same period last year. Current inventory levels rose to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 2.3% above year-ago levels and 6.5% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating relatively comfortable supply conditions despite recent tightening in output. Support for prices mainly emerged from declining U.S. natural gas production. Output in the Lower 48 states continued to weaken as producers, including EQT, reduced activity due to persistently low spot prices. Daily production dropped to a 15-week low, reflecting slowing drilling momentum and supply discipline among major producers. At the same time, gas flows to major LNG export terminals moderated from a record 18.8 bcfd in April to around 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to seasonal maintenance at facilities such as Freeport LNG and Golden Pass. Weather forecasts showing mostly normal temperatures through late May limited expectations for strong cooling demand in the near term. Meanwhile, the EIA maintained its longer-term bullish production outlook, projecting U.S. dry gas output to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 17.84% to settle at 23790 while prices gained 6.6 rupees. Natural gas is getting support at 279.1, with further downside support at 274.3. Resistance is seen at 287.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 290.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 274.3-290.7.

* Natural gas climbed following an in-line storage injection and a continued decline in output.

* EIA reported an injection of 85 bcf of gas into storage, below the 109 bcf build a year earlier.

* On the supply side, production continued to fall as some energy companies, such as EQT.

Copper

Copper prices declined sharply by 3.17% to settle at 1341.6 as profit booking emerged after recent gains, while elevated prices reduced buying interest from China. Additional pressure came from stronger U.S. inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter monetary policy stance or even consider further rate hikes later this year. Despite the correction, downside remained limited due to persistent concerns over tightening mine supply, falling inventories, and robust long-term demand linked to power infrastructure, electrification, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence-related projects, particularly in China. Supply-side concerns continue to support the broader copper market. Copper production in Chile declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, while Freeport-McMoRan maintained expectations for full production recovery at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by late 2027 despite reducing its recovery forecast for the second half of 2026. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell 0.4%, while Yangshan copper premiums have surged nearly 260% since February, reflecting tightening spot availability in China. China’s refined copper imports are expected to rise during the second quarter due to strong demand and lower domestic output caused by smelter maintenance. However, the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 and 377,000 metric tons in 2027 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 6.99% to settle at 9612 while prices declined by 43.85 rupees. Copper is getting support at 1323.2, with further downside likely toward 1304.9. Resistance is seen at 1370.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1399.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1304.9-1399.1.

* Copper prices dropped on profit booking as elevated prices discouraged buying activity in China.

* Prices also faced pressure from accelerating US inflation, which reinforced expectations for Fed interest rate hike later this year

* Copper stocks in SHFE warehouses are falling and the Yangshan copper premium is up 260% since February.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled lower by 1.14% at 363.2 amid profit-booking pressure as a stronger U.S. dollar and lack of active Chinese buying weighed on market sentiment. Chinese consumers remained cautious and preferred to stay on the sidelines, expecting prices to correct further as speculative long positions continued to unwind. Despite the decline, supply-side concerns continued to provide underlying support to the market. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged infrastructure, while Glencore-owned Kazzinc also continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion at its Kazakhstan facilities. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons this year, highlighting ongoing supply tightness. LME zinc inventories remained critically low at 110,875 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption. Zinc concentrate treatment charges continued declining, reflecting tighter raw material availability, while SMM reported a weekly decline of 12,100 mt in zinc concentrate port inventories. Supportive demand expectations from China’s accommodative monetary policy and industrial activity also helped limit downside losses. However, gains remained capped after Swedish miner Boliden confirmed the restart of production at its Garpenberg zinc mine in the second quarter. SHFE zinc inventories rose 2.9% from the previous week, indicating some near-term easing in supply tightness. Technically, the market remained under long liquidation as open interest declined by 1.33% to 2146 while prices fell by 4.2 rupees. Zinc is now getting support at 361, below which prices may test 358.6 levels, while resistance is likely at 365.9, with a move above potentially testing 368.4 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 358.6-368.4.

* Zinc dropped as a stronger dollar prompted profit-taking while negative sentiment was reinforced by an absence of Chinese buyers.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.9% from last Friday

* Nexa Resources said operations at its 344,400 ton per year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, had been temporarily suspended.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by 1.73% at 378.85 amid profit booking as elevated prices began showing signs of curbing demand in China. Market sentiment weakened after aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3.3% from the previous week, indicating softer near-term consumption. Despite the correction, the broader market structure remained tight, with expectations of significant global supply deficits continuing to support nearby contracts. The premium for cash aluminium over the three-month forward contract climbed to around $84 per ton, the highest level in 19 years, highlighting persistent physical market tightness. Supply concerns linked to the Middle East conflict continued to provide medium-term support. Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to pay premiums of $350 to $353 per metric ton for April-June shipments, the highest in 11 years, as supply disruptions tightened availability. JP Morgan projected a 1.9 million ton global aluminium deficit in 2026 due to an estimated 2.4 million ton disruption in Middle East supply. BOFA also advanced its $4,000 per ton aluminium price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s aluminium exports surged to 88,554 metric tons in March from 33,490 tons in February, while China’s aluminium exports rose 15% year-on-year in April amid stronger overseas demand. China’s primary aluminium production increased 2.7% year-on-year in March to 3.85 million tons, while first-quarter output rose 3.1% to 11.41 million tons. Chinese imports of unwrought aluminium and products also rose 6.9% in March, reflecting continued domestic demand despite high prices. Technically, the market remained under long liquidation as open interest declined by 7.28% to 2953 while prices fell by 6.65 rupees. Aluminium is getting support at 375.6, below which prices may test 372.4 levels, while resistance is seen at 383.5, with a move above potentially testing 388.2 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 372.4-388.2.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking amid signs that high prices are starting to curb demand in China.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday.

* Reports EGA’s Jebel Ali smelter in the United Arab Emirates is operating at "closer to normal" levels as it recovers from "stress".

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled lower by 0.34% at 15,912 amid rising arrivals across key mandis, which created a temporary supply glut and pressured prices. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, increasing immediate market supply. Additional pressure came from higher arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric, leading to aggressive discounting in average-quality lots. Export sentiment also remained cautious as tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics, prompting some overseas buyers to delay purchases. The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest period further reduced the weather-related risk premium in prices. However, downside remained limited due to continued tightness in quality supplies. Arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana stayed below normal for the peak season, while moisture-related rhizome rot issues reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric. In Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists continued holding back stocks expecting prices to move above ?18,000 per quintal. High-grade “Salem Fali” turmeric continued commanding premiums of up to ?20,000 per quintal in major markets. Lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season, also supported sentiment. Export demand remained stable, with Apr-Feb 2026 turmeric exports rising 1% year-on-year to 163,336 tonnes, while imports dropped sharply by 40% to 12,476 tonnes. Demand from Bangladesh and the EU for finger variety and IPM-certified turmeric continued supporting premium quality stocks. Technically, the market remained under fresh selling as open interest increased by 4.63% to 19,435 while prices declined by 54 rupees. Turmeric is getting support at 15,838, below which prices may test 15,764 levels, while resistance is seen at 15,998, with a move above potentially testing 16,084 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15764-16084.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut" in local mandis.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15509.55 Rupees dropped by -0.95 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 1.4% at 19,760 amid increased arrivals of the fresh crop from major Rajasthan producing regions, easing earlier concerns over supply tightness. Favorable weather across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting more quickly than expected, resulting in a sharp supply spike instead of a gradual market arrival pattern. Farmers also continued aggressive stock liquidation to raise liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding sustained selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut and weighing on market sentiment. However, downside remained limited due to concerns over crop quality and lower production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” cumin. Unseasonal rainfall also delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily tightening the availability of quality produce. Market participants noted that carry-forward stocks of high-quality “Sortex” grade jeera are significantly lower compared to last year, supporting premium prices. Production estimates for Gujarat showed a nearly 27% decline due to lower acreage and weaker yields, while blight disease in several producing regions further impacted crop quality. National jeera production for the current season is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Expectations of stronger Chinese demand for replenishing inventories also continued to support the broader market outlook. Jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2026 declined 15% year-on-year to 166,536 tonnes, although February exports rose 39% compared to January. Technically, the market remained under fresh selling as open interest increased by 6.28% to 10,305 while prices declined by 280 rupees. Jeera is getting support at 19,610, below which prices may test 19,440 levels, while resistance is seen at 20,000, with a move above potentially testing 20,220 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19440-20220.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness feared earlier in the month.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19938.8 Rupees dropped by -0.67 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views