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The SEA has lowered the 2023-24 rapeseed-mustard crop estimate to 115.8 lakh tonnes due to adverse El Nino weather effects. Despite a 5% increase in acreage, severe heatwaves and reduced soil moisture in key states have led to decreased yields. However, total production is still up 3.5% from last year.

Revised Production Estimate: The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has revised the production estimate for the 2023-24 rapeseed-mustard crop season from 120.9 lakh tonnes (lt) in March to 115.8 lt in May. This downward revision was based on a survey conducted by RMSI Cropalytics, reflecting adverse weather impacts during the maturity stage of the crop.

Adverse Weather Impacts: States such as Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh experienced severe heatwaves and a significant reduction in soil moisture due to El Nino weather conditions. These factors adversely affected the yield, contributing to the lower production estimates. This climatic impact underscores the vulnerability of agricultural production to changing weather patterns.

State-wise Production Estimates: The May survey revealed a decrease in rapeseed-mustard production estimates across major producing states. Rajasthan’s estimate fell from 46.13 lt in March to 45.34 lt, Uttar Pradesh’s from 20.03 lt to 17.88 lt, Madhya Pradesh’s from 17.58 lt to 16.03 lt, and Haryana’s from 12.26 lt to 11.68 lt. These states are key contributors to the overall production, and their reduced outputs significantly impacted the national total.

Unchanged Estimates in Other States: There were no changes in the production estimates for states like West Bengal (7.09 lt), Gujarat (4.57 lt), Assam (2.06 lt), and Chhattisgarh (1.11 lt). The production estimates in these states remained stable despite the weather challenges faced by other regions. This stability helped mitigate the overall national decline to some extent.

Total Production Revision: The production estimate for the eight major rapeseed-mustard producing states was revised downwards from 110.86 lt in March to 105.78 lt in May. Despite these revisions, the overall production from all remaining states of the country was maintained at approximately 10 lt, keeping the total national estimate at 115.8 lt.

Year-on-Year Production Growth: Despite the downward revision, the total rapeseed-mustard production for 2023-24 is expected to be 115.8 lt, which is a 3.5% increase from the previous year’s production of 111.80 lt in 2022-23. This indicates a slight improvement in production despite adverse weather conditions.

Increase in Acreage: According to remote sensing data, the acreage for rapeseed-mustard has increased by 5%, from 95.8 lakh hectares (lh) in 2022-23 to 100.6 lh in 2023-24. Rajasthan leads with 38 lh, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 17.76 lh, Madhya Pradesh with 13.98 lh, and Haryana with 7.59 lh. This increase in acreage is a positive sign for potential future production growth.

Yield Decrease: The yield per hectare of rapeseed-mustard is expected to decrease from 1168 kg in 2022-23 to 1151 kg in 2023-24. This slight reduction in yield is primarily due to the adverse weather conditions experienced during the latter part of the growing season. Despite the decrease, the overall production increase is driven by the expanded acreage.

Conclusion

The revised rapeseed-mustard crop estimate highlights the significant impact of adverse weather conditions, specifically El Nino, on agricultural yields. While increased acreage offers some optimism, the reduced yield underscores the need for adaptive farming practices. Overall, the projected 3.5% production increase from last year shows resilience, but it also calls attention to the importance of mitigating climate risks. Enhanced forecasting and resource management could help stabilize future outputs despite climatic challenges.

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