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Gold

Yesterday, gold prices surged by 1.19% to settle at 72,403 as the dollar weakened following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors are now closely monitoring the minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting for insights into potential future interest rate cuts. Powell mentioned that the U.S. is back on a "disinflationary path," but additional data is needed before any rate cuts are made. May's data showed no increase in the Fed's preferred inflation measure, with the annual rate slowing to 2.6%, still above the 2% target but trending downward. U.S. job openings rose in May after two months of declines, signaling softer labor market conditions, which might prompt Fed rate cuts this year. The market currently sees a 65% chance of a rate cut in September and another in December. Meanwhile, gold imports to China via Hong Kong fell 38% in April from the previous month, totaling 34.6 metric tons compared to 55.8 tons in March. In India, gold demand remained subdued due to high prices and expectations of an import duty cut in the upcoming budget. Indian dealers offered a discount of up to $9 per ounce over official domestic prices, down from $13 last week. In Japan, gold was sold at par to $0.5 premiums, while in Singapore, it was sold at par to $2.10 premiums, and at par to $2 premiums in Hong Kong. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with a 0.53% drop in open interest, settling at 14,223 contracts while prices rose by 849 rupees. Gold is currently supported at 71,865, with a potential test at 71,330 levels. Resistance is expected at 72,755, and a move above this level could see prices testing 73,110.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 71330-73110.
* Gold prices strengthened as the dollar eased after dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell.
* Fed's Powell says US on 'disinflationary path,' but more data needed before rate cuts
* Data showed U.S. job openings rose in May after two months of declines


Silver
Yesterday, silver prices surged by 2.37% to settle at 92,021 as the dollar weakened due to signs of a softening labor market, heightening speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The ADP report revealed fewer private-sector jobs added in June than anticipated, while Department of Labor figures showed a continuous rise in unemployment claims for the ninth week, reaching a two-year high. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged progress in managing inflation but emphasized the need for further evidence before considering rate cuts. Investors are eagerly awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for additional insights. India's silver imports in the first four months of the year have already surpassed the total for all of 2023, driven by rising demand from the solar panel industry and investor bets on silver's outperformance versus gold. The world's largest silver consumer imported a record 4,172 metric tons from January to April, significantly up from 455 tons during the same period last year. Almost half of these imports came from the UAE, capitalizing on lower import duties. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with a 2.02% drop in open interest, settling at 22,974 contracts while prices rose by 2,128 rupees. Silver is currently supported at 90,480, with a potential test at 88,930 levels if it falls further. Resistance is anticipated at 92,990, and a move above this level could see prices testing 93,950.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 88930-93950.
* Silver gains as the dollar dropped as data showed a weakening labor
* The ADP report indicated fewer private-sector jobs added in June than forecasted
* Fed’s Williams said that the level of interest rates that’s neutral in its impact on the economy likely hasn’t risen much.


Crudeoil
Crude oil prices edged up by 0.03% to settle at 6951, driven by concerns over lower supply despite an overall increase in OPEC's oil output. OPEC's production rose for the second consecutive month in June, primarily due to increased production from Nigeria and Iran, offsetting voluntary cuts by other members of the OPEC+ alliance. The group pumped 26.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, a 70,000 bpd increase from May. This rise comes despite OPEC+ extending most of its output cuts until the end of 2025, aiming to stabilize the market amid sluggish demand growth, high interest rates, and increased U.S. production. Hurricane Beryl, now a category 5 storm, also supported oil prices by threatening disruptions in supply as it made landfall on Carriacou Island and headed toward Jamaica. Additionally, OPEC+ supply constraints and increased travel, particularly with the upcoming U.S. Independence Day holiday, bolstered oil prices. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline, and distillate inventories saw significant declines in the week ending June 28, according to the EIA. Crude inventories fell by 12.2 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 680,000-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub increased by 345,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs rose by 260,000 bpd, with refinery utilization rates increasing by 1.3 percentage points. U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by 2.2 million barrels to 231.7 million barrels, surpassing the anticipated 1.3 million-barrel draw. Technically, the crude oil market is under short covering, with open interest decreasing by 5.64% to 5,758 contracts while prices rose by 2 rupees. Crude oil is supported at 6901, with a potential test of 6851 levels if it falls below this mark. Resistance is expected at 6985, with prices potentially testing 7019 upon breaking this level.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6851-7019.
* Crude oil recovers all losses amid lingering concerns about lower supply.
* US crude oil inventories fell by 12.157 million barrels in the week ending June 28, 2024.
* Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.214 million, exceeding the forecast of a 1 million draw.


Naturalgas
Natural gas prices declined by 0.25% to settle at 203.5, following the EIA's report of a 32 billion cubic feet storage build, slightly exceeding the expected 29 bcf. This addition places gas in storage at 18.8% above the seasonal norm, contributing to the price drop. Despite a persistent heat wave expected through mid-July, increased production and oversupply pressures kept prices near a seven-week low. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 101.8 bcfd in July, up from June's 100.2 bcfd, as higher prices in recent weeks incentivized producers like EQT and Chesapeake Energy to resume drilling. Rising output, forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks, and ongoing oversupply in storage contributed to the price decline, despite sustained high demand for power generation to combat the heat. LSEG reported that gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.8 bcfd in June, up from May's 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd, but still below the record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists project that the hotter-than-normal weather across the Lower 48 states will persist through at least July 16, increasing gas demand for power generation. Gas flows to the seven major U.S. LNG export plants decreased to 12.8 bcfd in June, down from 12.9 bcfd in May and a record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Technically, the natural gas market is experiencing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 5.23% to 33,035 contracts while prices fell by 0.5 rupees. Natural gas finds support at 201.2, with a potential test of 198.8 levels if it dips below this mark. Resistance is anticipated at 206.8, with prices possibly testing 210 upon breaking this level.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 198.8-210.
* Natural gas dropped following the EIA's report of a 32 billion cubic feet storage build.
* Gas in storage is now 18.8% above the seasonal norm.
* Despite this, prices remained near a seven-week low due to increased production and oversupply



Copper
Copper prices surged 1.92% to close at 863.3 yesterday, propelled by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks. Powell hinted at a forthcoming easing cycle, bolstering investor confidence in metals amidst a broader equity market rally. However, gains were tempered by subdued physical demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer. Lingering issues in China's property sector and high copper prices weighed on consumption, limiting price upside. Economic indicators from China reflected tepid demand conditions, with services activity expanding at its slowest pace in eight months and business confidence hitting a four-year low in June. This subdued sentiment in new orders suggested ongoing economic challenges affecting copper demand. Despite these challenges, China's unwrought copper imports surprised with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in May, totaling 514,000 metric tons, surpassing market expectations amid high prices. This unexpected rise indicated resilient import dynamics despite weaker physical consumption signals. On the supply side, Freeport McMoran reported lower-than-expected sales for the second quarter due to delays in securing export licenses for its Indonesian operations. Meanwhile, the global refined copper market showed a surplus of 13,000 metric tons in April, down from 123,000 metric tons surplus in March, as reported by the ICSG. The market registered a surplus of 299,000 metric tons in the first four months of 2024. Technically, copper experienced short covering with a 14.42% drop in open interest, settling at 7,100 contracts, while prices rose by 16.3 rupees. Support levels for copper are currently at 852.4, with potential downside tests at 841.5. Resistance is anticipated at 870.3, with a breakout potentially testing 877.3, reflecting ongoing market sentiment and economic data impacts on copper prices.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 841.5-877.3.
* Copper prices climbed with renewed hopes of U.S. rate
* Fed’s Powell struck a moderately dovish tone, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is more than likely to start its easing cycle later this year.
* China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months and confidence hit a four-year low in June.


Zinc
Zinc prices surged by 2.34% to settle at 272.8 amid optimistic expectations of increased demand in China following recent price declines and ongoing supply concerns. The market sentiment was buoyed by China's central bank reinforcing its accommodative monetary policy stance, aiming to support economic growth amidst signs of weakening industrial output. Despite this positive outlook, concerns lingered as industrial production in China slowed more than anticipated in May, reflecting subdued industrial demand exacerbated by a contractionary official manufacturing PMI. China's zinc concentrate imports plummeted by 24% in the first four months of the year compared to the previous year, driven by a tightening raw materials market. Spot treatment charges for imported zinc concentrates dropped significantly to $30-50 per ton, rendering many Chinese smelters unprofitable and prompting a shift towards domestic zinc sources. Globally, zinc production has faced challenges, declining by 2% in 2022 and another 1% in 2023, with no recovery evident in the early months of this year, according to the ILZSG. On the LME, zinc stocks have seen substantial fluctuations, rebuilding from 30,475 tons in early 2023 to 255,900 tons presently, a 15% increase since January. Despite these inventory movements, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 22,100 metric tons in April from 70,100 tons in March, reflecting tighter supply dynamics. Technically, the zinc market is witnessing fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising by 6.55% to 3,073 contracts while prices gained 6.25 rupees. Zinc is currently supported at 269.3, with potential downside testing at 265.6 levels. Resistance is expected at 275.1, with a breakout potentially leading prices towards 277.2. Investors are closely monitoring global supply dynamics and Chinese demand trends, which will likely influence zinc's price trajectory in the coming weeks.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.6-277.2.
* Zinc gains amid hopes of improved demand in China following recent price drops and supply concerns.
* The global zinc market surplus fell to 22,100 metric tons in April from 70,100 tons in March.
*  In China, zinc concentrate imports decreased by 24% in the first four months of this year compared to the previous year.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices rose by 1.35% to settle at 233.4, driven by optimism stemming from China's central bank reaffirming its supportive monetary policy stance aimed at stabilizing economic conditions. Despite this positive sentiment, gains were tempered by indications of ample supply and subdued demand pressures. China's commitment to easing monetary policies to bolster economic stability was highlighted, although these efforts are constrained by narrowing interest rate margins and a weakening currency. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2.0% week-on-week, underscoring the supply dynamics impacting the market. Global primary aluminium output saw a notable 3.4% year-on-year increase to 6.1 million tons in May, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China specifically reported a 7.2% rise in aluminium production to 3.65 million tonnes in May compared to the previous year, with total production in the first five months of the year reaching 17.89 million tonnes, up 7.1% year-on-year. Despite higher domestic production, China's aluminium imports surged by 61.1% in May year-on-year, driven significantly by increased shipments from Russia, which has seen heightened exports to China following sanctions from the U.S. and Britain on Russian metals. This influx underscores shifting global trade dynamics amidst geopolitical tensions. Technically, the aluminium market experienced short covering, with open interest declining by -3.93% to 4,185 contracts while prices gained 3.1 rupees. Aluminium currently finds support at 231.3, with potential downside testing at 229.2 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 234.8, with a breakout potentially leading prices towards 236.2. Investors are closely monitoring supply dynamics, particularly from China and Russia, alongside global economic indicators, to gauge aluminium's price trajectory in the near term.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 229.2-236.2.
* Aluminium gains as sentiment lifted by China's central bank's reinforcement of its easing monetary stance.
* Global primary aluminium output rose 3.4% year on year to 6.1 million tons in May
* China aluminium production up 7.2 % to 3.65 mln tonnes in May


Cottoncandy
Cotton prices for the Cottoncandy variety settled slightly lower by -0.03% at 58,720 due to profit booking, following earlier gains driven by delayed shipments from the US and Brazil, which bolstered demand for Indian cotton from domestic mills. The firm trend in cottonseed prices also supported natural fiber prices, despite ongoing sowing activities for the kharif 2024 season in southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, benefiting from monsoon rains. In the US, the 2024/25 cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to previous estimates, with production, domestic use, and exports remaining unchanged. The season average upland farm price has decreased to 70 cents per pound due to declines in new-crop cotton futures, while global balance sheets for the same period indicate increased beginning stocks, production, and consumption, with world ending stocks projected higher at 83.5 million bales. Domestically, in Rajkot, a key spot market, cotton prices closed at 27,705.35 Rupees, marking a decrease of -0.32% from previous levels. Looking ahead, market participants will monitor ongoing weather conditions affecting planting and crop development, as well as international trade dynamics influencing global cotton supply and demand. Factors such as pest infestations in North India and shifting agricultural practices in Telangana may continue to impact future acreage and production trends in the Indian cotton market. Technically, the cotton market is experiencing fresh selling pressure with a slight increase in open interest, despite prices declining by -20 rupees. Current support levels stand at 58,680, and a break below could test 58,640, while resistance is expected at 58,780, with potential further gains testing 58,840.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58640-58840.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid delay in arrival of shipments from US, Brazil
* China's agriculture ministry raised its forecast for cotton imports in the 2023/24 crop year by 200,000 metric tons
* The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices closed lower by -1.68% at 16,168 amid reports of increased sowing across major producing states in India. Despite the decline, downside was limited as farmers are withholding stocks in anticipation of higher prices. Sowing in key regions like the Erode line, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh is significantly higher compared to last year, indicating a potential increase in turmeric acreage from 3-3.25 lakh hectares to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. This surge in sowing comes after unfavorable weather conditions and lower sowing last year impacted production, which is now estimated to rise to 45-50 lakh bags for 2024. Despite increased sowing, expectations suggest that total turmeric production, including outstanding stocks, may reach around 70-75 lakh bags, which could still fall short of meeting future consumption demands, particularly in 2025. In April 2024, turmeric exports dropped by 19.07% compared to March 2024 and by 27.98% compared to April 2023, while imports surged by 192.36% from March 2024 and 570.31% from April 2023 levels, highlighting shifting trade dynamics and demand patterns. In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric closed marginally lower at 17,410.95 Rupees, down by -0.02%. Technically, the turmeric market witnessed fresh selling pressure despite a slight increase in open interest, with prices declining by -276 rupees. Current support levels are identified at 15,964, with a potential test of 15,760 if this level is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 16,508, and a breakout above could lead prices towards 16,848.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15760-16848.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid news of increased sowing.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17410.95 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices rose by 0.49% to settle at 28,930 yesterday, driven by robust domestic and export demand amidst tight global supplies. However, the upside was limited by the expectation of higher production. Farmers have been holding back stocks, anticipating better prices, which further supported the market. This season, jeera production is projected to increase by 30%, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes due to a substantial rise in the cultivation area. Sowing in Gujarat surged by 104% and in Rajasthan by 16%. Globally, jeera production has also seen significant increases, particularly in China, where output has soared to 55-60 thousand tons. Other countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have also ramped up production. As new supplies enter the market, cumin prices are expected to decline, compounded by reduced export trade. In Gujarat, the total production is estimated at 4.08 lakh tonnes, a new record, compared to 2.15 lakh tonnes last year. Rajasthan's production has also increased by 53%. Favorable weather conditions have contributed to this boost. Trade analysts expect cumin exports to rise significantly, potentially reaching 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024. Despite a volatile period in 2023, where exports dropped due to soaring domestic prices, the increased sowing area and declining international prices are likely to boost exports in 2024. India received 11% below-average rainfall in June but is expected to see above-average rainfall in July. Technically, the jeera market is under short covering, with a 9.07% drop in open interest, settling at 2,316 contracts. Prices have support at 28,620, with potential tests at 28,300 levels, while resistance is likely at 29,160, with a possible test of 29,380.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 28300-29380.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 28661.95 Rupees dropped by -0.35 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views.