MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards Rs 5900 level as long as it stays above Rs 5650 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to slip back towards $3300 level amid expectation of recovery in dollar and rise in U.S treasury yields. Furthermore, investors will remain cautious ahead of most awaited non-farm payrolls data for further cues on monetary policy. If data comes stronger than expected than it will provide more room for US Fed to hold rates steady. Additionally, investors are worried that despite of having trade deals with major trading partners, tariffs are still going to be significantly higher than they were before, fueling inflationary fears. Meanwhile, demand for safe haven may increase on concerns over rising U.S government debt.
• Spot gold is likely to slip back towards $3300 level as long as it stays below $3370 level. MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip towards Rs 96,600 level as long as it stays below Rs 97,800 level
• MCX Silver Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 108,500 level as long as it trades above Rs 106,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias on optimistic global market sentiments and worries over supply disruption. As per media reports a protest by informal miners in Peru is blocking parts of a key copper corridor used by major miners. Onsite operations are not impacted but transport of copper from operations has been interrupted. Furthermore, expectation of more stimulus packages from China to boost domestic consumption and hopes of new trade agreements between US and its major trading partners would be supportive.
• MCX Copper July is expected to rise further towards ?910 level as long as it stays above Rs 897 level. On contrary, a break below Rs 897 level prices may slip further towards Rs 890 level
• MCX Aluminum July is expected to rise towards Rs 252 level as long as it stays above Rs 248 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move north towards Rs 262 level as long as it stays above Rs 255 level.
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil is likely to rise further towards $68 level amid rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, risk premium may increase as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, increasing geopolitical tension in Middle East. Iran enacted a law stipulating any future inspection of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency will need approval by Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council. Meanwhile, sharp upside would be capped on expectation of recovery in dollar and surprise build in US crude stockpiles. As per EIA report crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Moreover, OPEC+ is likely to raise output again by 411,000 bpd next month
• MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards Rs 5900 level as long as it stays above Rs 5650 level.
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to rise towards Rs 308 level as long as it stays above Rs 289 level.
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