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Gold

Gold prices settled slightly higher yesterday, gaining 0.14% to close at 97,390, supported by persistent weakness in the US dollar amid deepening fiscal concerns and global trade uncertainties. The Senate’s approval of Trump’s tax-and-spending package, projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, weighed on the greenback, while ongoing tensions over US-Japan trade talks also added to the cautious sentiment. On the monetary front, mixed signals came from the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell maintaining a patient stance on rate cuts but not ruling out easing this month, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expecting cuts by September. On the physical front, China’s gold imports via Hong Kong fell 1.5% month-on-month in May, although demand in China and Singapore showed slight improvements. Indian physical demand remained weak as buyers waited for deeper corrections, pushing dealers to offer discounts of up to $18 an ounce. In contrast, Chinese dealers charged higher premiums of $12–$14 over the global benchmark, signaling resilient retail demand. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in investment inflows and bar demand, which offset weak jewellery sales and lower central bank purchases. Technically, gold remains under short covering with a 3.14% drop in open interest to 12,869 while prices rose by 139 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 97,095, below which prices could test 96,805, while resistance is likely near 97,580 and a break above could push prices towards 97,775.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 96805-97775.

* Gold prices gained as the US dollar weakened on rising fiscal worries and trade uncertainty.

* The US Senate passed Trump’s tax-and-spending megabill, projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt.

* Fed Chair Powell signaled patience but didn’t rule out a July rate cut; Treasury Secretary Bessent expects cuts by September.

Silver

Silver prices climbed 0.75% yesterday to settle at 107,518, buoyed by continued weakness in the US dollar amid persistent trade and fiscal concerns. The dollar came under further pressure after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s patient stance on rate cuts but did not rule out easing at this month’s meeting. He indicated that additional cuts would have already been implemented if not for inflationary impacts from President Trump’s tariffs. Adding to the uncertain outlook, the US Senate narrowly passed Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, expected to raise the national debt by $3.3 trillion, intensifying fiscal worries. On the labor front, the latest US job data showed mixed signals, with employers announcing nearly 48,000 job cuts in June—the lowest so far this year—while private businesses shed 33,000 jobs, marking the first decline since March 2023. Job losses were concentrated in professional services and education sectors, offset by gains in manufacturing and leisure. Fundamentally, silver’s supply-demand dynamics remain supportive. The Silver Institute projects the global silver market will post its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, driven by robust industrial demand forecast to hit a new record above 700 million ounces. Green technology and structural applications continue to bolster industrial offtake. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering with open interest down by 0.89% to 16,525 while prices rose by 805 rupees. Key support lies at 106,530, below which a test of 105,545 is likely. On the upside, resistance is seen at 108,025, with further gains possible up to 108,535.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 105545-108535.

* Silver prices rose, supported by a weaker US dollar amid rising trade and fiscal worries.

* Fed Chair Powell reiterated patience on rate cuts but didn’t rule out easing at this month’s meeting.

* The US Senate passed Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax-and-spending bill, adding to fiscal concerns and pressuring the dollar.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.46% yesterday to settle at 5,753, driven by fresh geopolitical tensions and expectations of steady supply increases from major producers. The market found support as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns about Middle East stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened further, adding to bullish sentiment in the oil market. Despite planned output hikes by OPEC+ next month—reportedly 411,000 barrels per day—investors have largely priced in these additions, limiting the potential for surprises. Saudi Arabia boosted its shipments by 450,000 bpd in June, the highest level in over a year, signaling the group’s commitment to stabilizing supplies. On the inventory front, mixed data from the U.S. clouded the outlook. API figures showed a modest build of 680,000 barrels in crude stocks, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase of 3.845 million barrels last week, surprising traders who anticipated a seasonal draw. Stocks at the Cushing hub declined by 1.493 million barrels, indicating localized tightness, while gasoline inventories rose sharply by over 4 million barrels—suggesting that refiners are ramping up output for the peak summer driving season. Distillate stocks fell by 1.71 million barrels, adding a note of support for refined product margins. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest dropping 8.07% to 12,920 while prices gained 138 rupees. Immediate support lies at 5,641, with a break lower opening the door to 5,530. Resistance is seen at 5,825, and a move above this level could push prices towards 5,898.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5530-5898.

* Crude oil rose as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, reigniting geopolitical risks.

* Markets weighed planned OPEC+ supply increases, but these appear largely priced in already.

* Saudi Arabia’s oil exports jumped by 450,000 bpd in June vs May, hitting a 13-month high.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices climbed 3.48% yesterday to settle at 300.1, supported by forecasts for hotter-than-normal mid-July temperatures that are expected to boost air conditioning demand, driving power generators to burn more gas. Weather analytics firm LSEG raised its total degree day estimate for the next two weeks to 206, up from 182 earlier, indicating higher cooling demand ahead. Despite the bullish weather outlook, U.S. natural gas output remains robust. Average production in the Lower 48 states has increased to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, slightly below the record 106.3 bcfd set in March, as producers recover from spring maintenance slowdowns. Gas demand, including exports, is projected to rise to 106.1 bcfd this week, up from 103.7 bcfd the week prior, reflecting stronger domestic consumption and steady LNG flows. However, LNG export volumes slipped to 14.4 bcfd in June from May’s 15.0 bcfd as maintenance and weaker global spot prices impacted loadings. On the supply side, U.S. gas inventories rose by 96 bcf last week, topping expectations and marking the 10th straight week of larger-than-average injections, lifting total storage to 2.898 tcf. Technically, natural gas is under short covering as open interest fell 8.84% to 23,813 while prices rose by 10.1 rupees. Immediate support lies at 292.3, below which a test of 284.5 is possible, while resistance is seen at 304.7, with further gains toward 309.3 if momentum continues.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 284.5-309.3.

* Natural gas prices rose as hotter mid-July forecasts are set to boost air conditioning demand.

* LSEG now estimates 206 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks — up sharply from 182 earlier.

* Average US Lower 48 gas output climbed to 106.2 bcfd in July, up from 105.9 bcfd in June, near the March record of 106.3 bcfd.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.79% yesterday, settling at 905.4, supported by growing concerns over tightening global supplies and robust demand signals from China. Supply-side worries intensified as traders redirected copper shipments to the US ahead of potential new tariffs, contributing to a steep drawdown in inventories at both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). This shift has fueled sharp backwardation in the futures curve, with LME on-warrant inventories plunging by 80% year-to-date and the tom/next spread widening to $90 per tonne, underlining immediate supply stress. Adding to the bullish sentiment, LME copper stocks fell to 91,275 metric tons last week—marking their lowest level in nearly two years—while SHFE copper stockpiles dropped 19.11% to hit a one-month low at 81,550 tons. Meanwhile, a private survey showed Chinese factory activity unexpectedly expanded in June, boosting optimism about demand from the world’s largest copper consumer. Although China’s imports of unwrought copper and products dipped 2.5% in May from April, year-to-date imports still show resilience with a 7.4% increase for copper concentrate shipments, highlighting continued appetite from Chinese smelters despite lower spot shipments. According to the ICSG, the global refined copper market flipped to a 50,000 metric ton deficit in April from a surplus in March, indicating tightening conditions that are likely to keep prices supported. Technically, copper remains under fresh buying interest as open interest rose by 5.78% to 8,561 while prices gained 7.1 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 900.5, below which prices could test 895.7, while resistance is likely at 908, with a breakout potentially pushing prices towards 910.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 895.7-910.7.

* Copper prices gained as worries over global supply shortages mounted.

* Traders redirected shipments to the US ahead of possible tariffs, tightening supply elsewhere.

* LME copper stocks dropped again last week to 91,275 tonnes, a near 2-year low.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged up by 0.96% yesterday to settle at 258.45, supported by a stronger yuan and a weaker US dollar, which helped offset broader concerns over sluggish global manufacturing demand. The pullback in the dollar index and softer US Treasury yields have fueled market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, providing a supportive backdrop for base metals.  Deliverable zinc inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 800 tonnes in the last week of June, signaling softer uptake from manufacturers as China’s official PMI still points to factory contraction. However, higher consumer spending in China has lifted hopes of improved metals demand going forward, partially cushioning the downside risk for zinc. On the supply side, output disruptions and mine depletion are lending fundamental support. Production at Teck Resources' Red Dog Mine in Alaska dropped 20% annually in the first quarter as the world’s largest zinc mine nears depletion. Additionally, Australia’s Nyrstar announced it would cut output by 25% this year due to uncompetitive treatment charges caused by tight ore supply. Globally, the zinc market surplus narrowed to 16,000 metric tons in April from 23,400 tons in March, with the January–April surplus also shrinking compared to last year, suggesting some supply tightening. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest dropped by 0.77% to 3,482 while prices rose by 2.45 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 256.1, with a break lower likely to test 253.8, while resistance is expected at 259.8, and a move above could see prices testing 261.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 253.8-261.2.

* Zinc prices gained as a stronger yuan and a weaker US dollar offset global trade tension worries.

* China’s official PMI stayed in contraction, showing lingering factory weakness.

* LME zinc inventories continue to decline to multi-year lows, indicating healthy overseas demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices closed higher by 0.64% yesterday at 250.55, supported by supply-side risks and hopes that global manufacturing demand will stay resilient this year. A key driver for aluminium’s strength is uncertainty over bauxite supply from Guinea, one of the world’s largest sources of the ore. Ongoing disputes between the Guinean government and Emirates Global Aluminium threaten mining licenses, and limited exports from Guinea in May have already pushed China’s bauxite imports down by 21% month-on-month, forcing the world’s top aluminium producer to seek alternative sources. Despite this, aluminium inventories on the LME have risen slightly since the start of the year, but combined LME and SHFE stocks remain nearly 60% lower than the same time last year, underlining a tight global market. On the production side, China’s aluminium output climbed 5% year-on-year in May to 3.83 million metric tons and is up 4% for the first five months of the year, indicating steady supply growth from the top producer. Premiums in Japan for Q3 shipments dropped sharply by 41% to $108 per ton, reflecting weak demand and ample availability in Asia, while US physical market premiums also slipped more than 7% as traders bet on potential cuts to import tariffs on Canadian aluminium. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying as open interest rose by 1.18% to 4,292 while prices gained 1.6 rupees. Support is seen at 249, below which prices may test 247.5, while resistance is pegged at 251.5, with a break higher potentially pushing prices towards 252.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.5-252.5.

* Aluminium prices rose as concerns over raw material supply resurfaced.

* Combined LME and SHFE aluminium inventories remain about 60% lower compared to the same time last year.

* China's aluminium production rose by 5.0 % to 3.83 million metric tons in May from a year earlier.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures closed 1.25% lower at 13,918, pressured by fresh selling as traders factored in expectations of increased acreage this season amid favourable monsoon conditions. Arrivals in key markets rose to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals in the previous session, pointing to a slight uptick in near-term supply. Dry weather has so far supported timely sowing across major producing regions, with preliminary estimates suggesting turmeric acreage could expand by 15–20% this season as farmers shift from less profitable crops. However, the downside for prices remains limited as the production outlook does not fully match the acreage gains. For 2024–25, the sown area is estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year’s 3 lakh hectares, but output may not see a similar jump. Adverse weather, including untimely rains, could reduce yields by 10–15%, especially in key regions like Nanded, where reports highlight small rhizomes and signs of crop rot. At the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continue to draw strong buying interest, with new stock consistently fetching higher rates than older inventory due to better quality.  On the export front, turmeric shipments in April 2025 were 14,956.80 tonnes, up 6% year-on-year but slightly down 0.92% from March, reflecting steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 1.86% to 17,550 lots, signaling new short positions. Immediate support lies at 13,804, with a break below likely to test 13,688. Resistance is seen at 14,078, and a move above could open the door for a test of 14,236 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13688-14236.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14416.05 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures slipped 1.41% to settle at 19,985, pressured by weak domestic and overseas demand following the end of the retail season. The market has come under renewed selling pressure as comfortable supplies and subdued export buying weigh on sentiment. Traders noted that foreign buyers remain largely inactive despite easing geopolitical risks and supply disruptions in major producing regions like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Although these countries are reporting lower output due to adverse conditions, India’s export interest has yet to pick up meaningfully, capping upside potential. Domestic supply remains ample, with farmers still holding about 20 lakh bags of jeera. However, only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by the end of the season, implying a sizable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to be slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with estimates suggesting 90–92 lakh bags, supported by favourable sowing and crop conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan. On the export side, India shipped 19,719.60 tonnes of jeera in April 2025, sharply lower by 48.11% compared to April 2024 but up 13.74% from March 2025, indicating some recent improvement in foreign demand, although not yet strong enough to boost prices sustainably. Technically, Jeera is under fresh selling as open interest edged up 0.18% to 4,995 lots, indicating new short positions. The immediate support stands at 19,870, with a breach likely to drag prices down to 19,760. Resistance is placed at 20,140, and a break above could see Jeera testing 20,300 levels in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19760-20300.

* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* However downside seen limited on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20416.05 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

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