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Bullion –

Comex gold December futures fell marginally on Thursday, settling below $3,350/oz, while silver tumbled 2.7% to a four-week low weighed down by the stronger dollar, hitting a 2-month high above 100. Supporting the dollar, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 26 declined to 218K, below the expected 224K, signaling labor market resilience while June’s core PCE rose to 2.8% Y/Y, up from 2.7%, while headline PCE climbed to 2.6%, exceeding expectations. Silver faced additional pressure from a 21% plunge in copper prices following Trump’s exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and disappointing Chinese manufacturing data, with July’s PMI dropping to 49.3. The US confirmed a 10% baseline tariff and hiked Canada’s tariff to 35%, effective August 1. Today, gold trading below $3,340 pressured by strong dollar as markets now await July’s U.S. NFP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and UoM Sentiment Index. Geopolitical risks may still offer safe-haven support for bullions.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil prices closed 1% lower on Thursday at $69.3/bbl, as global risk appetite remained limited ahead of the looming August 1 Trump tariff deadline. While U.S. and Mexico agreed to extend an existing trade deal by 90 days, caution regarding countries without finalized trade agreements weighed on sentiment. However, losses were contained by concerns over tightening global supply, particularly due to the potential impact of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian crude. Today, prices are holding above $69/bbl and are poised for strong weekly gains, supported by signs of robust summer driving season demand and geopolitical tensions as Trump threatened economic penalties on Russia unless a swift resolution to the Ukraine war is achieved. However, gains may remain capped amid tariff-related uncertainty.

Natural Gas –

NYMEX gas prices closed above $3.1/mmBtu as Freeport LNG resumed operations following an outage caused by a power disruption and offset the impact of a bearish storage report.

Base metals -

LME base metals ended Thursday in the red, with aluminium falling the most, down over 1% to $2565/ton. Copper remained under pressure and is on track for a weekly decline after Trump unexpectedly exempted refined copper from the looming 50% import tariffs, while still targeting semi-finished products like wires and pipes. This sparked a sharp market reaction, dragging COMEX copper and erasing the wide price gap between COMEX and LME significantly, from record premium of over $2,600/tonne. With refined copper off the tariff list, the arbitrage trade that had driven large-scale withdrawals from LME warehouses lost momentum, easing pressure on global supply dynamics. LME metals trade mixed as markets continue to digest the US decision to exempt refined copper from the proposed 50% tariff, while a firm dollar hovering around the 100 mark may exert pressure.

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