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The global cotton market in 2025 is navigating a mix of challenges and recoveries. While U.S. cotton futures hold around 66 cents per pound, prices saw a dip earlier this year due to Chinese tariffs but rebounded on strong export sales. Global production is projected to rise, driven by increases in China, despite reductions in Pakistan and Argentina. Meanwhile, competition from man-made fibers continues to pressure cotton’s market share, particularly with rising Chinese MMF exports. U.S. imports climbed 10%, fueled by resilient consumer demand, yet remain below historical averages. India emerges strong with a fully recovered export level, benefiting from its integrated textile supply chain. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic with stable demand supporting prices.

Key Highlights

# U.S. cotton prices steadied at 66 cents per pound despite earlier lows.

# Global cotton production forecast rises, led by increased output in China.

# U.S. cotton imports grew 10%, driven by consumer demand and inventory replenishment.

# India’s cotton exports fully rebounded to pre-2022 levels.

# Man-made fibers continue to challenge cotton’s global market share.

The cotton market in 2025 presents a landscape shaped by fluctuating prices, resilient demand, and evolving global trade dynamics. Cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) held steady at around 66 cents per pound. Earlier in the year, prices dropped to 63 cents, their lowest since 2020, primarily due to additional Chinese tariffs on U.S. cotton. However, robust export sales propelled a recovery, stabilizing prices in recent weeks.

Supporting this price performance, global production is projected to rise by 500,000 bales to 121 million. A notable increase of 750,000 bales from China offsets declines in Pakistan and Argentina. Consumption is also forecast to grow by nearly 600,000 bales, driven by higher demand in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt — the latter reaching its highest consumption in 15 years.

Despite these gains, cotton continues to face stiff competition from man-made fibers (MMFs). Cotton’s share of global fiber consumption remains under 25%, a significant decline from nearly 40% in the early 2000s. U.S. imports of cotton products surged 10% to 3.3 million metric tons in 2024, reflecting strong consumer spending and retailers replenishing inventories. Yet, imports remain below the 20-year average, partly due to MMF competition and shifting sourcing patterns. Notably, imports from China, though still leading at 20% market share, were the second-lowest since 2004. India stands out as the only major supplier to fully recover export levels to 2022 figures, leveraging its vertically integrated supply chain and traceability standards compliance.

Finally

The 2025 cotton market showcases resilience with steady prices and rising global production, though competition from man-made fibers remains a formidable challenge to sustained growth.

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