Commodity Research Evening Track by Kotak Securities Ltd
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Gold near record highs ahead of US economic data
Comex Gold is on track for a monthly gain, trading above $2,556 a ounce, ahead of US inflation data this week, which may help to clarify the pace at which the Federal Reserve might ease policy after falling on Wednesday. Figures due Friday are expected to show the three-month annualized rate of core inflation falling to 2.1%, barely beyond the central bank's 2% target, supporting the case for rate cuts.
WTI Crude Oil prices steady above $74 today, after a two-day slump, as traders weighed supply disruptions in Libya with a softer outlook in the coming months. Crudel oil prices expected to fall slightly this month despite repeated decreases in US inventories, heightened Middle Eastern tensions, and a more than halving of Libya's oil production. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have lowered their 2025 oil price projections, predicting a surplus next year as China's economy slows.
LME metals extended their fall from the previous session as concerns about the strength of China's demand recovery persist, with supply remaining adequate.. LME aluminum fell more than 1% to $2,467 today as the difference between its spot price and the three-month contract on the LME extended to $29 per ton, indicating that immediate global supply are plentiful. According to a Bloomberg survey, China is set to miss its GDP growth target this year, reducing demand in Asia's largest economy. LME copper and lead are down 0.45% and 1.44%, respectively.
European Natural gas prices for next month gained as much as 1.1% on Thursday, the last day of the September contract as market is monitoring the supplyside challenges. Norwegian gas exports fell last week to their lowest level since June owing to seasonal maintenance.
Today the focus will be on the key economic releases including the second estimate of Q2 GDP, expected to show 2.8% growth, and initial jobless claims, expected to remain unchanged at 232K.
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