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Bullion – Spot gold remained volatile on Wednesday, retreating from highs above $5,090/ Oz before settling near $4,960, ending the session modestly higher. The pullback followed renewed US dollar strength and mixed moves across the Treasury yield curve. Silver surging more than 3.5% to close above $88. Macro signals were mixed as ADP data showed January private payrolls rising by just 22K versus expectations of 48K, while the ISM Services PMI surprised on the upside at 53.8, with prices paid rising to a twomonth high of 66.6. Geopolitical risks remain in focus amid lingering US–Iran tensions, despite planned talks in Oman, while US–China relations stayed stable. Today, gold slipped to below $4,800, pressured by firmer dollar after the Fed signaled caution on rate cuts. Near-term bias remains mildly bearish, as markets awaiting JOLTS job openings and weekly jobless claims for fresh direction.

Crude Oil – WTI crude surged more than 3% yesterday to around $65.4/bbl, supported by reports that U.S.–Iran negotiations may have stalled and by a sizable drawdown in U.S. oil inventories. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Distillate inventories also declined sharply by 5.6 million barrels, while gasoline inventories posted a modest 700,000-barrel increase. However, oil prices reversed course today, falling more than 2%, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to resume talks in Oman on Friday, easing near-term geopolitical risk and reducing fears of potential military action against the OPEC producer. Meanwhile, traders are eyeing developments from a two-day trilateral meeting, after Ukrainian and Russian officials described the first day of U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi as “productive.”

Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures extended their rally, settling above $3.46/mmBtu, driven by a strong rebound in U.S. LNG exports and growing expectations of a large inventory draw.

Base metals – Base metal eased further on Thursday, extending losses after a sharp decline in the previous session, as rising supply from China weighed on sentiment. Copper fell amid growing inventories across major hubs, particularly LME warehouses in Asia, suggesting material initially bound for the US has been redirected. On the demand side, buying from Chinese fabricators slowed for a 2 nd straight day as businesses head into the Lunar New Year holidays. Moreover, industry estimates point to a further increase in China’s refined copper output this year, following last year’s strong growth, showing a more comfortable supply outlook. While copper briefly rebounded earlier in the week following calls to build strategic reserves, attention has since shifted back to near-term demand softness. Base metals are trading lower, weighed down by concerns over rising supply in top consumer China, alongside caution ahead of interest rate decisions from the BOE and ECB.

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