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Bullion – Spot gold retreated on Wednesday after a three-day rally, settling below $3,740/Oz, while silver slipped under $44 on stronger dollar and firmer Treasury yields. Moreover, hawkish central bank rhetoric also pressured bullion, as Fed Chair Powell reiterated the need to balance inflation risks against a slowing labor market. Additionally, positive U.S. data added weight, with August new home sales surging 20.5% m/m to a three-and-half-year high of 800K. However, strong ETF inflows and geopolitical tensions provided a floor, as Trump backed Ukraine’s full territorial recovery with NATO support, while Kyiv struck oil infrastructure in Russia’s Volgograd region. Today, Gold trading steady near $3,735 on stronger dollar with investors awaiting key U.S. inflation and jobs data. Softer inflation could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, supporting bullion, with markets pricing two cuts this year.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil jumped above $65/bbl yesterday, buoyed by an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories and as Trump ramped up pressure on the EU to cut energy purchases from Russia. This coupled with continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure raise prospects of lower Russian crude exports and tighter global supplies. In a major shift, Trump stated that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they violate their airspace and said Ukraine could potentially reclaim its pre-war borders with support from the EU. Today, oil prices are holding steady above $64.5/bbl after posting their biggest single-day gain in three months as supply concerns continue to provide support, though sharp upside may be capped as oil companies in Iraq’s Kurdistan region have reached an agreement with government to resume crude exports that have been halted for over two years.

Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures steadied near ~$2.85/mmBtu as traders remained wary ahead of contract expiry and EIA inventory report that is expected to show stocks addition of 74 bcf last week.

Base metals - Base metals traded mixed on Wednesday, but copper stood out with a sharp rally, climbing nearly 4% on the LME to $10,336/ton and almost 3% on the MCX to around ?950/kg. Prices surged to their highest in over a year after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, following a fatal mud-flow incident earlier this month. The disruption, which has already forced Freeport to cut quarterly copper sales guidance, underscores the market’s sensitivity to supply shocks, further compounded by Hudbay Minerals’ suspension of operations at its Peruvian mine amid protests. As Grasberg contributes over 3% of global mined copper, prolonged disruptions risk further tightening supply, lifting prices and straining the smelting sector. On the MCX, copper is expected to trade firm on extended supply concerns, though firmer dollar may cap upside

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