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Gold

Gold prices edged higher, settling 0.34% up at ?123,051 as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the delayed US jobs report. The minutes indicated a divided Fed, with several officials supporting an October rate cut, some preferring no change, and others opposing easing. Job data due Thursday is expected to show around 50,000 new jobs in September, while rising unemployment claims signal a cooling labour market. Expectations for a December rate cut have softened, with the probability falling to just over 46% from 63% a week earlier, lending additional support to gold. Risk sentiment remained weak amid concerns over stretched tech valuations, boosting gold’s attractiveness. Goldman Sachs noted strong central bank buying, estimating 64 tonnes of purchases in September versus 21 tonnes in August, and maintained its price target of $4,900 by end-2026. Physical demand, however, was muted across Asia due to elevated prices. Global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year in Q3 to 1,313 tonnes, the highest quarterly figure on record, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin demand and a 134% jump in ETF inflows. Central bank buying increased 10% to 219.9 tonnes, while supply reached a record high with recycling up 6% and mine output rising 2%. Technically, the market shows short covering as open interest dropped 5.47% to 10,237. Support is placed at ?122,065, with further downside toward ?121,075. Resistance is at ?124,250, and a breakout could push prices toward ?125,445.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 121075-125445.

* Gold gains as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

* Several Federal Reserve officials favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in October

* The jobs report is anticipated to show the US economy added around 50,000 jobs in September.

Silver

Silver prices edged higher, settling 0.3% up at ?155,107 as a risk-off tone across global markets supported safe-haven buying. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed a divided Federal Reserve, with some officials backing an October rate cut while others preferred holding rates steady. Unemployment benefit claims rising to a two-month high and soft economic indicators added weight to Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s call for another quarter-point cut next month. Political uncertainty increased after President Trump confirmed ongoing interviews for a new Fed chair, with a decision expected by year-end. Physical factors also supported prices. Strong wedding-season demand in India and concerns over potential US tariffs on silver have boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, London Bullion Market Association data showed silver holdings in London vaults rising 6.8% in October to 26,255 tonnes, easing the tightness in the OTC market after heavy inflows from the US and China. Despite this, borrowing rates remain historically elevated. Investor appetite is strong, with global silver-backed ETP holdings up 18% year-to-date, reflecting concerns over stagflation, Fed independence, debt sustainability, and geopolitical tensions. However, global silver demand for 2025 is expected to fall 4% to 1.12 billion ounces due to declines across industrial, jewelry, and investment segments. Technically, the market is in short covering with open interest down 1.98% to 12,182. Support lies at ?152,665, with further weakness toward ?150,225. Resistance is at ?158,305, and a breakout could take prices toward ?161,505.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 150225-161505.

* Silver rose as risk-off mood in financial markets helped buoy safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

* Policymakers were divided over support for that meeting's rate cut and over whether a December cut would be appropriate.

* India’s wedding season is boosting physical demand.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply, settling 2.19% lower at ?5,258 as rising U.S. crude inventories reinforced concerns of oversupply. U.S. crude stocks increased by 4.45 million barrels for the week ended November 14, while gasoline and distillate inventories also registered weekly gains. Additional EIA data showed crude inventories rising by 6.4 million barrels earlier in the month to 427.6 million barrels, although a later report indicated a 3.426-million-barrel drawdown for the latest week, highlighting volatile stock movements. Inventories at Cushing fell by 698,000 barrels, but refined product stocks increased, adding to the supply-heavy outlook. Despite these pressures, downside remained somewhat limited due to tighter fuel markets globally after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure boosted diesel margins to their highest level since September 2023. U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with a November 21 compliance deadline, added further uncertainty to Russian supply flows. However, broader fundamentals remain bearish. Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to trend lower into 2026 due to a supply wave, though it noted Brent could rise above $70 in 2026/27 if Russian output drops significantly. OPEC+ confirmed a 137,000 bpd output increase for December while pausing hikes in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. oil output is projected to average a record 13.59 million bpd this year before easing slightly next year. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest jumped 37.62% to 16,057. Support lies at ?5,187, with further downside toward ?5,117, while resistance is at ?5,353 and a breakout could push prices to ?5,449.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5117-5449.

* Crude oil dropped due to higher crude inventories in the U.S., reinforcing oversupply concerns.

* However, falls were limited by a tighter fuel market as a result of attacks against Russia's oil infrastructure.

* Russia's Novak: Russia does not plan to voluntarily reduce oil output, sticks to OPEC+ agreement

Natural gas

Natural gas futures closed sharply higher, rising 4.68% to 402.8, supported by a shift to colder weather expectations heading into early December. After several days of warmer revisions, the latest European model added heating demand for late November and early December, triggering renewed buying. While winter weather remains the biggest uncertainty, some broader seasonal forecasts still point to a colder-than-normal pattern. NatGasWeather noted that models had recently trimmed early-December demand, but the midday update restored part of that lost bullishness. Fundamentally, expectations of the first storage withdrawal of the season following last week’s cold snap are adding support ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. However, U.S. production remains elevated, with Lower-48 output averaging 109.2 bcfd in November, above October levels and near record highs, keeping inventories 4% above normal. LNG feedgas demand stays firm at 18 bcfd so far in November, up from the record 16.7 bcfd in October. Latest data showed U.S. energy firms injected 45 bcf into storage, taking inventories to 3,960 bcf, above expectations and 4.5% above the five-year average. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 15.48% to 11,064 as prices gained ?18. Support is placed at 389.5, with a break below opening downside toward 376.2, while resistance stands at 411.6, and a move above could target 420.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 376.2-420.4.

* Natural gas gained as some forecasts shifted colder heading into early December.

* Support also comes from expectations of the first storage withdrawal of the season after last week’s cold snap.

* After several days of warmer revisions, the latest European model added heating demand for late November and early December.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling 0.67% up at 1002.1, supported by short covering as traders awaited the release of delayed U.S. job data. However, gains remained capped due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, with several Fed officials pushing back against expectations of a December rate cut. The market continues to find underlying support from global supply concerns amid multiple mine disruptions. Freeport-McMoRan reaffirmed that Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is expected to resume production by July 2026, keeping long-term supply outlook stable. Meanwhile, LME copper stocks rose by 4,450 tons to 104,500 tons, the highest since early October, while the cash-to-three-month spread remained in a $36.50/ton contango, signaling no immediate tightness in spot availability. ICSG’s latest projections show the global refined copper market moving into a 178,000-tonne surplus in 2025, followed by a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026 as demand outpaces supply growth. Mine output is expected to rise by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Refined usage is projected to increase 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. For the first seven months of this year, the market showed a 101,000-tonne surplus, narrowing significantly from last year. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped 12.43% to 5,832 while prices gained ?6.65. Support stands at 996.8, with deeper downside toward 991.4, while resistance is placed at 1006, above which prices may test 1009.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 991.4-1009.8.

* Copper nudged higher on short covering as market participants awaited the release of delayed U.S. job data.

* Prices was still supported by supply concerns, sparked by mine disruptions worldwide.

* Freeport-McMoRan said that it plans to resume production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by July 2026.

Zinc

Zinc prices inched higher, settling 0.28% up at 301.95, supported by persistently tight LME inventories and a modest recovery in physical premiums. However, upside remained limited as weaker Chinese economic indicators weighed on demand sentiment and expectations of a December U.S. rate cut faded. Several Federal Reserve policymakers expressed caution about inflation trends, signalling that further easing may not be warranted this year, dampening broader risk appetite. Market participants also awaited the release of delayed U.S. economic data, including the September jobs report, after the government shutdown disrupted reporting schedules. Inventory conditions continue to lend support to zinc, with LME warehouse stocks hovering near their lowest level since February 2023 at 35,875 tonnes. SHFE zinc inventories have also dropped 8% in recent weeks to 100,208 tonnes, reflecting tightening availability. Meanwhile, China’s October macro data showed tentative signs of stabilization, with CPI turning positive at 0.2% and PPI declines narrowing to -2.1%, improving confidence in a gradual recovery. However, refined zinc production trends remain mixed: September output fell 4% month-on-month but surged over 20% year-on-year.  Globally, ILZSG reported a 47,900-tonne surplus in August and a 154,000-tonne surplus for the first eight months of 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell 5.39% to 2,455 while prices gained ?0.85. Support lies at 300.9, with deeper levels at 299.8, while resistance is placed at 303.6, above which prices may test 305.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.8-305.2.

* Zinc gains supported by persistently tight LME inventories and a mild rebound in physical premiums.

* However, weak macroeconomic cues and mixed Chinese demand capped the upside as the week progressed.

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher, settling 0.57% up at 264.6, supported by expectations of improved demand and constrained global supply. The metal found buying interest as Chinese output growth remains limited, with smelters nearing government-imposed capacity caps aimed at preventing overcapacity and curbing deflationary pressures. Market sentiment also benefited from the U.S. moving closer to restoring full government operations and China introducing additional measures to bolster economic activity. However, upside was capped by a series of weak Chinese macro indicators, which kept demand concerns alive. On the supply front, primary aluminium output in October rose 0.4% year-on-year to 3.8 million tonnes, though it declined 9% from September, highlighting seasonal and operational pressures. Japanese port inventories dropped 3.6% in October to 329,100 tonnes, signalling tightening regional availability. Conversely, SHFE aluminium inventories rose 1.40%, indicating mixed domestic supply dynamics. Global supply concerns also intensified with multiple disruptions: one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter shutting due to equipment failure, Alcoa’s decision to close the Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, and Century Aluminium cutting two-thirds of output at its Iceland smelter. Technically, aluminium is under short covering as open interest fell 3.47% to 1,974 while prices gained ?1.5. Immediate support lies at 263.1, with deeper levels at 261.4, while resistance stands at 266.2, above which prices may test 267.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 261.4-267.6.

* Aluminium prices rose helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 329,100 metric tons by the end of October.

* Primary aluminium output in October reached 3.8mt (+0.4% year-on-year), but fell 9% from September.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices strengthened, settling 1.99% higher at 14,540 as adverse weather conditions continued to impact key producing regions. Heavy and continuous rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Erode have affected yields and triggered disease outbreaks, with high humidity complicating crop preservation. In Nanded, excessive rainfall is estimated to have damaged nearly 15% of the turmeric acreage, contributing to concerns over supply. Low inflows and cautious selling in mandis are further underpinning the firm price trend. On the production front, while the recent rains have caused localized damage, the prevailing dry weather phase is aiding timely planting. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% as farmers shift away from less profitable crops. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric area has already increased to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous year. However, the upside in prices may remain capped if the acreage expansion continues. Stocks with farmers, particularly in Warangal, are nearly exhausted, with negligible arrivals. At Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals are drawing strong buying interest, with new-season produce commanding a premium due to superior quality. Turmeric exports have shown healthy growth, rising 3.31% in April–August 2025 to 80,156 tonnes. August exports were up 7.27% year-on-year and 13.71% month-on-month, reflecting strong overseas demand. Technically, the market is in short covering, with open interest down 1.23% to 10,405 as prices rose by 284 rupees. Support is now placed at 14,074, below which 13,606 may be tested, while resistance stands at 14,850, with further upside toward 15,158 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13606-15158.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14827.95 Rupees dropped by -0.24 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher, settling 1.42% up at 21,480 as tight supplies and delayed sowing continued to support market sentiment despite weak export demand. Uneven and insufficient rainfall across key growing regions, particularly Gujarat, has slowed field preparation and resulted in one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remain very low, and good-quality cumin continues to fetch a premium. While export demand from Gulf nations and China has shown slight improvement, buying remains highly price-sensitive amid global logistical hurdles and weather-related disruptions in India and the Middle East. Overall upside remains capped as the retail season has concluded and foreign buyers continue to remain subdued, meeting most requirements from existing stocks. Farmers still hold nearly 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded before the season ends, leaving a heavy carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. However, sentiment stays supported as the GST rate cut to 5% is expected to encourage FMCG-linked exports and domestic consumption. Production estimates indicate output may fall to 90–92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year due to reduced sowing in major producing states. Gujarat’s production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Exports during April–August 2025 dropped 17.02% year-on-year to 85,977 tonnes, though August shipments rose 3.24% annually. Technically, short covering is evident as open interest fell 6.61% to 3,264. Support lies at 21,070, with deeper downside towards 20,650. Resistance is placed at 21,740, and a break above may push prices toward 21,990.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20650-21990.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Farmers are struggling to start sowing due to uneven rainfall.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21151.3 Rupees dropped by -0.89 percent.

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