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Gold

Gold prices settled sharply higher, gaining 1.9% to close at 136,744, after touching a record high, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts. The rally has been further reinforced by sustained investment demand, with gold-backed ETFs recording five consecutive weeks of inflows. However, near-term dovish expectations remain muted, as the CME FedWatch Tool shows only a 22.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the January meeting. US inflation data for November showed cooling pressures, with headline CPI easing to 2.7% YoY and core CPI declining to 2.6%, though Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, cautioned against overinterpreting the data due to distortions from the government shutdown. Geopolitical risks continued to underpin safe-haven demand, following fresh developments involving US actions near Venezuela and Ukraine’s strike on a Russian tanker. On the physical front, elevated prices dampened retail demand in key Asian markets, with discounts widening in India and China, while premiums remained modest in Singapore and Hong Kong. Central bank buying stayed robust, led by China’s thirteenth consecutive monthly addition and strong purchases from Poland and Brazil. ETF assets under management hit fresh records, reflecting sustained investor interest. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining by 1% to 14,885 while prices rose 2,548. Gold has immediate support at 135,490; a break below could test 134,235. Resistance is seen at 137,410, with a move above opening the path toward 138,075.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134235-138075.

* Gold rose to a record high driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* The rally is supported by five straight weeks of inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

* The probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%-3.50% in the January meeting is 22.5%.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply higher, gaining 2.13% to close at 212,872 after scaling a fresh record high, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and intensifying geopolitical risks. The metal has surged over 140% amid a structurally tight supply environment, robust industrial consumption, and strong investment demand. ETF inflows and sustained retail buying continue to reinforce expectations of a persistent market deficit, with forecasts pointing to a fifth consecutive annual shortfall of around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking cumulative deficits since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Industrial demand remains a key driver, led by rapid growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, and data center infrastructure. Supply-side constraints persist as global mine production and recycling have remained largely stagnant for over a decade. Tight physical conditions are evident in rising lease rates and borrowing costs in London, indicating genuine delivery stress. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls effective 2026 has further fueled near-term demand, while Chinese inventories have fallen to decade lows following record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October. Although LBMA data showed a 3.5% rise in London vault silver holdings in November, liquidity concerns remain elevated. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 4.54% to 12,688 as prices advanced 4,433. Silver has support at 210,035; a break below could test 207,200. Resistance is placed at 215,145, and a sustained move above may open the path toward 217,420.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 207200-217420.

* Silver climbed reaching a new record, driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions

* Silver rallied over 140% by an ongoing supply deficit, growing industrial needs and strong investment demand.

* Fed’s Miran reiterated that the U.S. central bank should cut interest rates because inflation has cooled.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled higher by 2.31% at 5,223, supported by heightened geopolitical risks after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker near Venezuela and ongoing tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, both of which revived concerns over potential supply disruptions. Despite these developments, the broader market remains weighed by expectations of ample supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, which have largely capped prices and kept Brent futures near the $65 per barrel mark in the medium term. The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude production forecast to a record 13.61 million barrels per day, reinforcing concerns of a global supply overhang, even as it marginally lowered its 2026 outlook. The International Energy Agency also projected a sizable surplus next year, though it trimmed its estimate to 3.84 million bpd on slightly stronger demand growth and marginally lower supply. On the inventory front, U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.274 million barrels, exceeding expectations, with a notable draw at the Cushing hub. However, sharp builds in gasoline and distillate inventories highlighted weaker downstream demand. OPEC+ output edged higher in November, while demand projections for 2026 were maintained, reflecting confidence in global economic stability. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 9.86% to 19,995 as prices rose 118. Crude oil has support at 5,142, with a break below exposing 5,062. Resistance stands at 5,274, and a move above could push prices toward 5,326.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5062-5326.

* Crude oil rises after US intercepts tanker off Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine tensions persist.

* US intercepts Venezuelan oil tanker, raising supply disruption fears

* Trump administration's hardline approach sparked rebound in crude prices

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled lower by 1.6% at 351.2, pressured by forecasts for milder-than-normal weather and reduced heating demand over the next two weeks, along with near-record production levels in the U.S. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 states remained at a record 109.6 bcfd in December, matching November’s all-time high. Weather models indicate largely warmer conditions through January 3, curbing seasonal heating demand, with LSEG projecting total gas demand, including exports, to decline from 144.6 bcfd this week to 127.5 bcfd over the coming fortnight. However, downside appears limited due to sustained strength in LNG exports. Average feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals rose to 18.5 bcfd so far in December, exceeding November’s record, despite minor flow disruptions at some Louisiana facilities. On the storage front, U.S. utilities withdrew 167 bcf last week, leaving inventories at 3,579 bcf. Stocks remain 1.7% below last year’s levels but are still 0.9% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, the EIA expects both U.S. gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025, underscoring longer-term demand resilience. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.42% to 11,880 as prices declined 5.7. Natural gas has support at 337.7, with a break lower potentially testing 324.2. Resistance is seen at 367.9, and a move above could push prices toward 384.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 324.2-384.6.

* Natural gas dropped amid forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks and near-record output.

* However, downside seen limited on near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states held at 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December.

Copper

Copper prices settled marginally higher by 0.61% at 1,121.65, supported by structurally tight supply conditions and optimism surrounding long-term infrastructure and electrification demand. LME copper is on track for its strongest annual performance since 2009, having risen nearly 33% this year, underpinned by persistent mine disruptions, limited new project development, and historically low treatment and refining charges that signal stress in the concentrate market. Supply concerns intensified after Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on zero processing fees for 2026, the lowest ever recorded, while expectations of US tariffs encouraged pre-emptive stockpiling. On the demand side, copper continues to benefit from its critical role in power grids, data centers, and AI-related cooling infrastructure. China’s refined copper production rose sharply in November, up 11.9% year-on-year, although imports fell for a second month as elevated prices dampened buying appetite. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of about 122,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025, though apparent usage still grew 5.5%, highlighting resilient demand. Peru and Chile reported modest production gains, but these were insufficient to ease longer-term supply tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping 9.51% to 5,841 while prices gained 6.8. Copper has support at 1,118.2, with a break lower testing 1,114.6. Resistance is seen at 1,124.6, and a move above could push prices toward 1,127.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1114.6-1127.4.

* Copper rose as structurally tight supply conditions and optimism around long-term infrastructure demand continued to support.

* Prices on the LME are on track for their strongest annual gain since 2009, supported by persistent mine disruptions.

* Chilean miner Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on zero processing fees for 2026, the lowest level ever recorded in annual talks.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled marginally higher by 0.45% at 302.75, supported by emerging supply-side constraints as a zinc mine in Central China announced a routine maintenance shutdown, reducing available production days. Additional support came from expectations of lower zinc concentrate output, with a mine in Southwest China having largely met its annual production target and scheduled for maintenance in December, which is expected to cut concentrate output by around 700 tonnes in metal content. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange–monitored warehouses declined 5.7% week-on-week, reflecting tightening near-term availability. However, gains remained capped by weak macroeconomic signals from China. Property investment and sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, while factory output and retail sales growth slowed further in November, underscoring subdued domestic demand. On the supply side, China’s refined zinc production rose sharply, increasing 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes in November, adding to pressure on prices. Globally, refined zinc production is forecast to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a small global market deficit of 600 tonnes in October, while the refined market still showed a surplus of 76,000 tonnes over the first ten months of 2025. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 11.92% to 1,870 as prices gained 1.35. Zinc has support at 301.6, with a break lower exposing 300.4. Resistance is placed at 303.9, and a move above could test 305.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 300.4-305.

* Zinc gains as zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.

* A zinc mine in Southwest China has largely completed its annual production target and is scheduled to undergo maintenance shutdown.

* Zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.21% to settle at 284.5, tracking strength in LME aluminium, which climbed toward $2,970 per tonne, its highest level since May 2022. Prices were supported by intensifying supply-side concerns after South32 announced that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to power supply issues, potentially tightening global availability next year. Additional disruptions at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and declining inventories at major Japanese ports, which fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes, further underpinned sentiment. Global producers also sought sharply higher premiums of $190–$203 per tonne for January–March shipments, reflecting tightening physical markets. However, gains were capped by renewed demand concerns from China, where weak economic data continued to weigh on sentiment. China’s aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tonnes in November, nearing the country’s 45-million-ton annual output cap, while SHFE-monitored inventories edged up slightly. On a global basis, primary aluminium output increased marginally, and China’s imports of unwrought aluminium fell 14% year-on-year in November. Diverging outlooks remain, with ANZ raising its near-term price target on improving demand prospects, while Goldman Sachs expects prices to ease into 2026 amid a potential surplus. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 21.64% to 1,564 as prices gained 0.6. Aluminium has support at 283.8, with a break lower testing 283.1. Resistance is seen at 285.4, and a move above could push prices toward 286.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 283.1-286.3.

* Aluminium gains tracking LME prices climbed toward $2,970 per tonne, marking the highest since May 2022.

* South32 announced that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026.

* Global aluminium output rises 0.5% year on year in November – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 3.5% to settle at 16,216, supported by below-normal arrivals and strong domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remained firm as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, providing a solid base ahead of the new crop’s arrival. Demand from export markets, particularly Europe and the United States, continues to remain healthy, while Indonesia’s crop season has ended with below-average quality, adding support to Indian prices. Spot prices in Nizamabad also strengthened, ending at 15,643.3, up 1.61%. However, upside may be capped by an expected rise in acreage due to favourable rains during the sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, though lower carry-forward stocks will limit overall availability. Unseasonal rains in August–September affected yields in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, with localized losses of 15–20%, while quality concerns persist in low-lying areas. Export data showed marginal growth during April–October 2025, though October shipments declined on both yearly and monthly bases. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.14% to 13,760 as prices gained 548. Turmeric has support at 15,798, with a break lower testing 15,382. Resistance is seen at 16,462, and a move above could push prices toward 16,710.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15382-16710.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15643.3 Rupees gained by 1.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rallied sharply, settling higher by 4.37% at 22,075, supported by weather-related issues and delayed sowing that continue to keep supply concerns alive. In Gujarat, the key producing state, jeera sowing as of December 15 stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down nearly 14% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall delayed field preparation, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remained very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices, while spot prices there ended at 21,202.75, up 0.83%. However, upside may be capped by comfortable carry-in stocks and muted export demand. Farmers are estimated to be holding nearly 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before season-end, leaving substantial carry-forward stocks. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved marginally but remains price-sensitive, and overall overseas buying is weak despite lower supplies from Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan due to geopolitical disruptions. Production estimates for the current season suggest lower output at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing area. Export data showed a 13.21% decline during April–October 2025, reinforcing subdued global demand. Nonetheless, support is seen from the GST Council’s decision to lower GST to 5%, which could aid FMCG demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.4% to 4,017 as prices jumped 925. Jeera has support at 21,380, with a break lower testing 20,690. Resistance is placed at 22,480, and a move above could push prices toward 22,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20690-22890.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21202.75 Rupees gained by 0.83 percent.

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