Commodity Research - Morning Insig1ht - 27 Jan 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion - Spot gold and silver surged to fresh record highs on Monday as safe-haven demand intensified amid a weaker U.S. dollar, falling Treasury yields, and heightened political, trade, and geopolitical risks. Gold briefly spiked to $5,110.9 per ounce before easing to settle near $5,010. The dollar slid to 4-month lows on speculation of yen intervention, while the U.S. 10-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 4.207%, providing additional support to bullion. Silver climbed to an all-time high of $117.75, buoyed by strongerthan-expected U.S. durable goods orders, which rose 5.3% in November, well above forecasts. Prices later retreated to around $103.7. Momentum remains firm, aided by Chinese silver trading at a premium to London prices, though elevated levels may begin to curb industrial demand. Today, gold is trading 1% higher above $5,070 as markets now await U.S. consumer confidence data, regional manufacturing figures, and the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s guidance later this week.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil closed 0.7% lower on Monday at $60.6/bbl, giving back part of last week’s 3% gain, as supply disruptions eased following the gradual restart of production at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield. Operations resumed after January 18 fire forced a temporary shutdown, with output currently at around 20 k bpd, or roughly 2% of capacity. Prior to the shutdown, Tengiz was producing about 360K bpd. Today, WTI crude extended its decline, slipping to around $60.2/bbl, despite ongoing refining disruptions along the U.S. Gulf Coast caused by freezing weather. Focus has shifted to the February 1 OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to hold March output steady and reiterate their pause on supply increases through the first quarter.
Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futuressurged above $7/mmBtu, reaching their highest level since 2022, as a severe winter storm across the U.S. has curtailed natural gas production while significantly boosting heating demand expectations.
Base metals –Base metals extended gains early in the week, led by copper ended at $13,199/ton amid sharp slide in the U.S. dollar. The dollar’s weakness amplified by geopolitical uncertainty, renewed attacks on Fed independence, and erratic policy signals from Trump, including fresh tariff threats against South Korea. Copper briefly pushed toward record highs before paring gains, with COMEX prices easing near $5.9/lb as profit-taking emerged and Chinese regulators tightened margin requirements to rein in volatility. Demand from China remain mixed, with copper inventories rising across SHFE, LME, and COMEX warehouses, pointing to softer near-term consumption. Still, underlying support from energy-transition demand, keeping base-metals bias positive despite growing regulatory and inventory-related headwinds.
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