Sell Kapas Apr @ 1590 SL 1600 TGT 1580-1570. NCDEX - Kedia Advisory
Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices edged higher by 0.55% to close at 53,500, driven by short covering, despite an upward revision in India’s cotton production estimate. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised the production forecast slightly higher to 291.35 lakh bales from 291.30 lakh bales, primarily due to improved yields in Odisha. However, bearish undertones remain, with consumption estimates lowered by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales, and exports revised down to 15 lakh bales for the 2024–25 season, significantly below the 28.36 lakh bales exported last year. Despite higher production, the rise in import volumes — already 27.5 lakh bales by April — is more than double last year's imports, indicating domestic supply tightness. Ending stocks are also expected to increase to 32.54 lakh bales, suggesting weakening domestic demand or stockpiling strategies. Globally, the USDA’s June WASDE report trimmed 2025–26 production estimates by over 800,000 bales, with cuts in India, the U.S., and Pakistan outweighing gains in China. Global consumption is forecasted lower by 300,000 bales, with declines in India, Bangladesh, and Turkiye, pushing global ending stocks down by 1.6 million bales to 76.80 million bales. In the U.S., adverse weather in the Delta has cut the harvested area and yield expectations, reducing the production estimate to 14 million bales, the second lowest in a decade. Technically, the market is in short covering mode, with open interest down by 6.15% to 61 lots. Immediate support is seen at 53,200, while resistance lies at 53,800, with a breakout possibly pushing prices further up.
SELL COTTONCANDY JUL @ 53700 SL 54000 TGT 53400-53100. MCX
COCUDAKL
SELL COCUDAKL JUL @ 3180 SL 3220 TGT 3140-3120. NCDEX
KAPAS
SELL KAPAS APR @ 1590 SL 1600 TGT 1580-1570. NCDEX
