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Gold

Gold ended the session 0.89% higher at 130,652, supported by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week. A series of dovish comments from Fed officials, combined with weak US economic indicators after the prolonged government shutdown, strengthened market bets, with traders currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. Investors now await US private payrolls and PCE data for further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction. Gold has recorded gains in nearly every month of the year, putting it on track for its best annual performance since 1979, driven by strong central-bank buying and persistent ETF inflows. However, high prices have dented physical demand across key Asian markets. In India, despite the wedding season, dealers offered a discount of up to $18/oz, slightly narrower than last week.  According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in Q3 rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, the highest quarterly level ever. Investment demand surged, with bar and coin demand up 17% and ETF inflows rising 134%, offsetting a steep 23% decline in jewellery fabrication. Central bank purchases increased 10% to 219.9 tonnes. Supply also hit a record, supported by higher recycling and a 2% rise in mine production. Technically, fresh buying was observed with open interest rising 10.51% to 13,406. Support is placed at 129,930, below which 129,200 may be tested, while resistance is seen at 131,360, with potential extension toward 132,060.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 129200-132060.

* Gold prices climbed driven by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut next week.

* A series of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, along with weak economic data, also supported.

* The metal’s ascent has been supported by robust central-bank buying and strong ETF inflows.

Silver

Silver surged 4.03% to 182,030, buoyed by tightening global supply conditions and growing expectations of a US interest-rate cut. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate reduction, supported by softer labor-market data and dovish commentary from Fed officials. A major driver of the rally has been deepening supply concerns, particularly in China. Inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange–linked warehouses recently dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes slumped to a nine-year low. China also exported over 660 tons of silver in October, the highest monthly volume on record, sending a significant flow to London to ease an acute liquidity squeeze that had pushed prices to record highs. Despite recent inflows, silver-market liquidity remains tight. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported that silver held in London vaults rose 6.8% in October to 26,255 metric tons, valued at $41.3 billion. Large shipments from China and the US helped ease short-term borrowing costs, although rates remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, about 1,568 tons exited Comex warehouses since early October amid concerns around potential US import tariffs after silver’s inclusion in the US critical minerals list. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling 9.64% to 14,680 while prices jumped 7,049 rupees. Support is placed at 177,600, with further downside risk toward 173,165. Resistance is seen at 184,735, and a breakout above this level may push prices toward 187,435.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 173165-187435.

* Silver hits a fresh record high as supply concerns and expectations of US interest-rate cuts continued to support.

* Inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses recently fell to near-decade lows.

* Markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut in the US, following labor-market weakness.

Crude oil

Crude oil closed flat at 5,324, as markets digested the outcome of the latest OPEC+ meeting and a steady stream of supply-related data from the US and global agencies. OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to halt production increases for the first quarter of next year, extending the three-month pause announced in October amid concerns of uneven demand recovery and the potential for oversupply in 2026. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called the meeting a key turning point, highlighting the approval of a new mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum production capacities. This assessment will run from January to September 2026, forming the basis for new output baselines from 2027 onward. Meanwhile, US supply dynamics continue to weigh on sentiment. According to EIA data, US crude output rose to a record 13.84 million bpd in September, driven by strength in New Mexico and the offshore Gulf region. Inventory data also painted a mixed picture: US crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels while gasoline and distillate inventories increased sharply, signalling robust refinery activity with utilization rising to 92.3%. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook further indicated that US output will average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, only slightly easing next year. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose 1.51% to 14,079 while prices were unchanged. Support is seen at 5,272, with further downside toward 5,221, while resistance is placed at 5,383, and a break above could lift prices toward 5,443.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5221-5443.

* Crude oil unchanged after OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to suspend production increases during the first quarter of next year.

* Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted exports after a major drone attack and U.S.-Venezuela tensions raised concerns about supply.

* The outcome of OPEC+ meeting marked a turning point, citing Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Natural gas

Natural gas rose 1.83% to 433.5, supported by forecasts of colder weather and a sharper-than-expected storage withdrawal, signaling stronger heating demand as winter conditions intensify across the U.S. The geopolitical backdrop also added upward momentum, with uncertainty around Russia–Ukraine peace talks and expectations that sanctions on Russian gas exports will persist, limiting global supply flexibility. On the production front, LSEG data showed average output in the U.S. Lower 48 climbed to 109.7 bcfd so far in November, up from October’s 107.4 bcfd and higher than the previous record of 108.3 bcfd seen in August. Despite record production, demand is set to jump significantly. LSEG projects 140.6 bcfd in total U.S. demand this week, much higher than the prior week’s 118.3 bcfd, though next week is forecast slightly lower at 136.5 bcfd. According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, both U.S. natural gas production and demand are expected to hit record highs in 2025, with dry gas output projected to reach 107.1 bcfd and domestic consumption rising to 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also forecast to grow sharply to 14.7 bcfd in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 1.02% to 24,215 and prices gaining 7.8 rupees. Support lies at 426.5, with further downside toward 419.5, while resistance is positioned at 440.5, and a break above may open the path toward 447.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 419.5-447.5.

* Natural gas climbed driven by forecasts for colder weather and higher demand.

* A bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal data also provided support.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper gained 1.34% to 1050.25, supported by tightening supply conditions and a softer US dollar, which boosted buying interest. Supply-side constraints remain central to the market’s strength, with Chile — the world’s largest producer — reporting a 7% year-on-year drop in October output to 458,405 metric tons. At the same time, China’s top smelters announced plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address industry overcapacity and negative treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), which have flipped below zero this year due to constrained copper concentrate availability. The broader inventory landscape also reflects tightening fundamentals. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks fell 11.46% from last week, while LME-registered inventories are down 42% year-to-date, adding to concerns over supply availability outside the US. Elevated Comex prices have encouraged traders to redirect shipments toward the US, amplified by uncertainty around potential tariffs under the Trump administration. Market balance indicators continue to shift. The International Copper Study Group reported a 51,000-ton deficit in September, reversing a surplus seen in August. For the first nine months of the year, the refined copper surplus narrowed sharply to 94,000 tons, down from 310,000 tons a year earlier. Technically, copper is in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising 0.47% to 8,817 as prices climbed 13.85 rupees. Support sits at 1040.4, with deeper downside toward 1030.6. Resistance is placed at 1057.6, and a breakout above could propel prices toward 1065.

Trading Ideas:

*Copper trading range for the day is 1030.6-1065.

*Copper rose supported by tight supply and elevated premiums.

*China’s top copper smelters will cut production by over 10% in 2026.

*JP Morgan forecasts copper prices rising to $12,000/t by 1Q26, with a full-year average of $12,075/T

Zinc

Zinc rose 1.75% to 308.45, supported by improving fundamentals as the global market surplus narrowed sharply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc surplus dropped to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, helping sentiment amid signs of tightening supply. Expectations of a December U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut also provided support, as weak retail sales and fragile consumer confidence reinforced the likelihood of policy easing. Supply-side developments in China added further backing. Several zinc mines are scheduled for maintenance shutdowns in December, resulting in lower concentrate production, including an estimated 700 mt drop in metal content from a major Southwest China mine. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 4.42% decline in zinc inventories, indicating tightening domestic availability. However, the upside was capped by rising LME zinc stocks, which surged 47% in November to 49,925 tons, easing near-term global supply fears. China’s refined zinc production trends were mixed. September output fell 4% month-on-month but climbed over 20% year-on-year, while cumulative production for January–September rose nearly 9% YoY, slightly below expectations. Technically, zinc is in fresh buying territory, with open interest rising 6.15% to 3,004 as prices gained 5.3 rupees. Support lies at 305, with deeper downside at 301.4. Resistance is placed at 310.5, and a breakout could push prices toward 312.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 301.4-312.4.

* Zinc gains as global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August

* A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

* Support also seen as soft U.S. economic data supported expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

Aluminium

Aluminium closed 0.99% higher at 275.75, supported by growing expectations of a December U.S. rate cut after dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials. The sentiment was further strengthened by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, restricting output growth at a time when demand prospects are gradually improving. SHFE-monitored aluminium inventories also fell 6.82% from last Friday, indicating tightening availability in the Chinese market. Global supply concerns added additional support. The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium output rose only 0.6% YoY in October to 6.294 million tonnes, reflecting limited production growth. Stocks at Japan’s three major ports dropped 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes, while multiple supply disruptions also contributed to tightness. Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to electrical issues, while Century Aluminium announced a two-thirds output curtailment at another Icelandic facility for similar reasons.  Demand indicators remained relatively firm. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 10.4% YoY in October to 350,000 tonnes, following a 35.4% surge in September. Technically, aluminium is in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising 2.28% to 3,370 as prices gained 2.7 rupees. Immediate support stands at 274.5, with deeper support at 273.1. Resistance is seen at 276.6, and a breakout above this could push prices toward 277.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 273.1-277.3.

* Aluminium gains supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* China's Nov Alumina output falls 4.44% mom as environmental curbs cut northern operations

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures edged lower by 0.07% to 14706, pressured by an increase in acreage supported by favourable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as yields in key growing regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been adversely affected by excess rainfall. Erode is witnessing heavy arrivals from these states, while continuous rains there have triggered disease outbreaks, with high humidity making storage difficult. Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has damaged nearly 15% of the standing crop, adding to supply concerns. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no arrivals in the last two days, while market sentiment remains sensitive to weather developments and low inflows. Preliminary estimates indicate turmeric acreage may rise 15–20% for the 2024-25 season, with overall area standing at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year. In the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continue to fetch higher prices due to superior quality, with daily volumes steady at 1,000–1,200 bags, and nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Turmeric exports for Apr–Sep 2025 rose 4.02% to 96,679 tonnes, while September exports increased 7.59% on-year. Turmeric is witnessing fresh selling with a 0.58% rise in OI to 7,795. Support is placed at 14508, below which 14310 may be tested. Resistance is seen at 14926, and a breakout above could lift prices toward 15146.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14310-15146.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14936.35 Rupees dropped by -0.65 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures extended losses and settled 2.23% lower at 21,710, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate carryover stocks. Sowing in Gujarat as of 01 December 2025 dropped 7.74% to 1.94 lakh hectares against 2.11 lakh hectares last year, as uneven rainfall delayed field preparation. Arrivals at Unjha remain low, keeping good-quality cumin firm, though overall sentiment stays cautious due to limited overseas buying. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved marginally but remains price-sensitive, while logistical challenges in India and the Middle East continue to tighten supply. Despite weak demand, the downside remains capped by delayed sowing, weather concerns and lower arrivals. The GST Council’s move to cut GST to 5% is expected to support FMCG-linked consumption and export competitiveness. Farmers reportedly hold around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded this season, leaving an estimated 16 lakh bags as carryover. India’s production for the season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Global output from China, Turkey, Syria and Afghanistan is also lower due to adverse weather. Apr–Sep 2025 exports fell 14.51% to 1.01 lakh tonnes, though September shipments rose 22.93% over August. Fresh selling pressure is visible with open interest up 1.81% to 3,213. Immediate support lies at 21,410, below which 21,110 may be tested. Resistance is placed at 22,240, and a break above could lift prices toward 22,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21110-22770.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* As on 01 Dec 2025, in Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* At Unjha market, arrivals are very low, and good-quality cumin is getting higher prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21479.8 Rupees dropped by -0.05 percent.

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