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GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

Gold prices are hovering around $4,150 an ounce after surrendering the previous session’s gains, as elevated crude oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The U.S. PCE price index rose 0.3% in August, below expectations for a 0.4% increase, while core PCE increased 0.2%, compared with forecasts for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation stood at 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%. The softer inflation readings have eased near-term rate-hike expectations, with markets lowering the implied probability of an October Fed hike to around 38% from 51% before the PCE release. This has provided some support to bullion and limited the downside.

However, the recovery remains constrained by elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar index strengthened to around 101.5, while Treasury yields climbed to multi-year highs amid concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep monetary policy tighter for longer. The 10- year and 30-year Treasury yields were around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, with both reaching their highest levels since 2002. Elevated yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding gold. Market focus now turns to the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, weekly jobless claims and comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could influence the dollar, Treasury yields and rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected economic data or hawkish Fed commentary could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy and limit gold’s recovery

Crude oil prices steadied above $90 a barrel on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as improving Middle East supply flows offset uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations. Saudi Arabia has restored around half the capacity of its East-West pipeline, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz have risen to around 13.2 million barrels per day, signalling a gradual recovery in regional supplies.

However, the outlook remains uncertain without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. Iranian officials said Tehran had received a U.S. proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping diplomatic developments in focus. Natural gas prices remain below $3 ahead of the EIA storage report, with markets expecting a 63 Bcf injection versus 53 Bcf previously.

Gold

• Trading Range: 145900 to 151750

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Nov Fut at 148425-148450 SL 147525 Target 149525/150400

Silver

• Trading Range: 224050 to 235075

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Nov Fut at 227050-227075 SL 225800 Target 229080/230480

Crude Oil

• Trading Range: 8350 to 9105

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Crude Oil Oct Fut at 8680-8685 SL 8805 Target 8505/8425

Natural Gas

• Trading Range: 275 to 297

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Natural Gas Oct Fut at 294-294.5 SL 299 Target 287.80/284

Copper

• Trading Range: 1387 to 1409

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Oct Fut at 1399-1399.5 SL 1394.8 Target 1405/1409.0

Zinc

• Trading Range: 409 to 422

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Sep Fut at 414.0- 414.50 SL 410.8 Target 419 /422.0

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