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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is expected to face resistance near $4,200 level and slip toward $4,100 pressured by firm US dollar and rising Treasury yields. Concerns over persistent, energy-driven inflation and higher bond yields are likely to weigh on prices. Further, little progress in negotiation between US and Iran would keep oil prices elevated and force major central banks to go for tighter monetary policy. On the other hand, strong central bank buying and improved ETF inflows would provide support to bullion prices. Meanwhile, focus will shift on US job report on Friday, which could bring more clarity on the strength of US labor market.

• MCX Gold December is expected to face hurdle near Rs 152,000 and slip towards Rs 148,000-Rs 147,000 levels.

• MCX Silver December is expected to consolidate between Rs 221,000 and Rs 228,000 levels. Only a move below Rs 221,000, it would correct towards Rs 218,000 mark.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to find support and trade higher, driven by tight supplies and robust demand from China. Declining mine outputs from Chile and Indonesian mines would hurt global supplies. Further, depleting inventory levels in both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are also providing strong support. Reflecting this tight market, China’s Yangshan copper premium recently surged to $124 per metric ton, signaling a powerful appetite for refined copper imports. This supply squeeze is expected to intensify in the near term as Chinese buyers aggressively restock ahead of the autumn holiday period.

• MCX Copper October is expected to rise towards Rs 1420 as long as it trades above Rs 1390.

• MCX Aluminum October is expected to find support near Rs 340 level and rise towards Rs 345. MCX Zinc October is likely to find support near Rs 410 and rise towards Rs 420 levels.

Energy Outlook

• Crude oil prices are expected to consolidate above the $88 mark and potentially move higher toward $92 amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. The long-term stability of oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain without a lasting agreement to end the conflict, which continues to provide a floor for prices. Meanwhile, improved Middle East oil supplies, which rebounded strongly this month to 13.2 mbpd should ease immediate supply concerns and limit it’s upside. However, depleting gasoline and diesel inventories are expected to offer additional price support. Moving forward, market focus will remain squarely on the progress of US-Iran negotiations, which should bring more clarity to future oil price movements.

• MCX Crude oil October is expected to hold support near Rs 8500 and move higher towards Rs 9000 level.

• Natural gas price is expected to move lower towards Rs 285 level as long as it stays below Rs 300.

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