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Gold

Gold settled 0.14% higher at Rs 1,49,036, supported by softer-than-expected US inflation data that reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, while core PCE increased 0.2%, indicating relatively moderate inflation pressure. However, revised data showed US Q2 GDP growth at 2.2%, sharply higher than the earlier 1.5% estimate, while Q1 growth was also revised upward, highlighting continued economic resilience. US company hiring also strengthened in September, while markets await Friday’s employment report, with payrolls expected to rise by 90K. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that persistently elevated inflation could become embedded in public expectations, potentially limiting the scope for policy easing. In India, physical gold demand improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers ahead of the festive season, narrowing dealer discounts to around $43 per ounce from $60 last week. Singapore premiums stood at $1.70–$2.50, Hong Kong at $1.70–$2.00, while Japan traded between a $0.25 discount and $0.50 premium. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July 2026, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central-bank diversification as a key structural driver, although it warned that a more hawkish Fed could temporarily push prices toward $4,070 before recovering toward $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.83% to 15,716 while prices gained Rs 213. Gold is currently finding support near Rs1,48,255, and a break below this level could expose Rs 1,47,470. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs 1,50,460, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs 1,51,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147470-151880.

* Gold gained as softer-than-expected inflation reinforced expectations that Fed may leave interest rates unchanged.

* The US headline PCE price index rose 0.3% mom, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2%.

* The government’s employment report due Friday is expected to show a 90K increase in payrolls.

Silver

Silver settled 0.77% lower at Rs 2,23,706 as elevated oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected US inflation data. The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, below market expectations of 0.4%, easing expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, although several Fed officials continued to support tighter policy amid persistent inflation risks. Fed Governor Michael Barr said high energy prices and strong AI-related investment have disrupted progress toward the 2% inflation target, while New York Fed President John Williams said another rate hike by year-end remains reasonable. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted inflation, government debt and economic conditions as factors contributing to higher long-term Treasury yields. Meanwhile, US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, following revised 2.5% growth in Q1, supported by stronger investment, consumer and government spending. US personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9% in August, exceeding expectations, while wholesale inventories rose 0.7%. London silver vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to around 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million in 2025, despite total demand forecast to decline 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand may rise 18%, and total supply is forecast to decline 2%. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.1% to 17,348 while prices declined Rs 1,744. Support is placed near Rs 2,22,240, and a break below this level could drag prices toward Rs 2,20,775. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs 2,26,430, while a sustained move above this level could lead to Rs 2,29,155.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 220775-229155.

* Silver dropped as elevated oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected US inflation data.

* Fed’s Michael Barr made a ‌renewed case for further interest rate hikes

* The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q2 2026, revised up by 0.7 percentage point from the 2nd estimate.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.65% higher at Rs 8,734 as stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets continued to support prices despite recovering Middle East crude supplies. The spread between Brent and WTI widened to its highest level in four months as markets monitored potential US restrictions on diesel exports, which could increase domestic fuel availability and encourage refiners to reduce crude processing. Qatar said it hoped diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington could produce a breakthrough, while US President Donald Trump denied reports that he was considering sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iranian nuclear commitments. Saudi Arabia also resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline. Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average, while JPMorgan estimated the 10-day average at 20.5 million bpd, or 89% of 2025 levels. US crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks rose 553,000 barrels. Refinery runs declined 554,000 bpd and utilization fell to 92.5%. Gasoline inventories dropped 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined 2.3 million barrels, supporting diesel futures, which gained 4.5% to $5.1175 per gallon. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd, its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions and shrinking inventory buffers could tighten the market further. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest declining 10.95% to 11,528 while prices gained Rs 56. Support is placed at Rs 8,560, and a break below this level could expose Rs 8,385. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 8,870, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 9,005.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8385-9005.

* Crude oil rose as US-Iran talks aimed at ending their war stalled and tight fuel markets continued to underpin prices.

* Goldman says Gulf oil exports recover to 23.3 million barrels per day over last week

* White House urges EU to draw down emergency diesel inventories, two sources say

Natural gas 

Natural gas settled 1.16% lower at Rs 290.3 as forecasts for softer demand and expectations of rising US production weighed on prices following the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia. US Lower 48 gas output averaged 112.2 bcfd in September, slightly below August’s record 112.3 bcfd, while production over the past week averaged 109.4 bcfd due partly to the temporary disruption on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline. Record production and mild spring weather have kept US gas inventories above the five-year average since March, reaching 7.7% above normal in April. LSEG expects Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, to increase from 102.6 bcfd this week to 105.1 bcfd next week as temperatures turn seasonally cooler. The EIA reported a 53 bcf storage injection for the week ended September 18, matching market expectations but remaining below the 77 bcf build recorded in the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 76 bcf. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected to reach 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although maintenance at Freeport LNG has slightly reduced the 2026 forecast. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 11.83% to 46,644 while prices declined Rs 3.4. Support is placed at Rs 286.2, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs 282. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 294.7, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs 299.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282-299.

* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less demand and the market's belief that daily output will soon rise.

* Storage surplus likely shrinks to 2.4% above five-year average for week ended September 25

* Average Lower 48 production eased to 112.2 bcfd in September from August's record

Copper

Copper settled marginally lower by 0.02% at Rs 1,401.65 as improved Chinese factory activity provided support, while trading remained subdued ahead of the week-long holiday in China. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, returning to expansion territory, while the private RatingDog survey showed stronger momentum, with its manufacturing PMI climbing to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5. Pre-holiday buying continued to reduce copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with stocks falling 17.8% from the previous week to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest level since January 2024. However, China’s domestic physical copper premium eased to 1,050 yuan per tonne from 1,375 yuan, while the Yangshan import premium edged higher to $119 per tonne, indicating continued interest in imported material. Chilean copper production declined 12.8% year-on-year in August to 369,500 tonnes, compared with 423,643 tonnes a year earlier, due to storm-related disruptions and lower ore grades. The global refined copper market remained in deficit, with a 51,000-tonne shortfall in July compared with 74,000 tonnes in June, according to the International Copper Study Group. However, the first seven months of the year still recorded a 32,000-tonne surplus, against a 157,000-tonne surplus during the same period last year. Global refined output stood at 2.41 million tonnes in July, while consumption reached 2.46 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and product imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.35% to 8,818 while prices fell Rs 0.25. Support is placed at Rs 1,397.8, and a break below this level could lead to Rs 1,393.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 1,408.8, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,415.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1393.9-1415.9.

* Copper settled flat as factory activity in China returned to growth.

* RatingDog survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at a faster pace: its PMI measure rose to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5.

* Chile's copper output falls 12.8% in August hit by weather conditions and ore grades

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.8% lower at Rs 416.45 as softer Chinese economic data weighed on the demand outlook, although tightening supply and production disruptions across major regions provided some support. China’s industrial profits rose 15.7% year-on-year during the first eight months of 2026, slowing from 17.6% growth in January-July as weak domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. Meanwhile, China’s official manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, while the private RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5, indicating a return to factory expansion. China’s zinc output declined 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking the first annual contraction in nearly a year and the weakest performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories also declined 1.8% from the previous Friday. Supply concerns were reinforced as Nyrstar launched a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, while Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in H1 2026, down 21% year-on-year, and Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. However, the global refined zinc market moved into a 13,000-tonne surplus in July, with refined output rising 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes against demand of 1.177 million tonnes. Global zinc demand increased 0.56%, ending three consecutive months of contraction, while mine production fell 8% year-on-year to around 995,000 tonnes, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest fall since May 2024. Technically, zinc remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.88% to 2,483 while prices fell Rs 3.35. Support is placed at Rs 413.4, and a break below this level could lead to Rs 410.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 421.1, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 425.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 410.4-425.8.

* Zinc dropped as softening economic data from China weighed on the demand outlook.

* Industrial profits in China increased 15.7% in the first eight months from a year earlier, slowing from a 17.6% rise during January-July

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.8% from last Friday

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.73% lower at Rs 340.65 as prospects of improving supply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices, while expectations of tighter US monetary policy added further macro pressure. Several smelters are preparing to restart previously idled capacity, while others are advancing expansion plans, raising expectations of improved availability. Rising Chinese exports are also offsetting part of the supply disruption from the Gulf, with August aluminium exports increasing 17.2% year-on-year amid subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories. Aluminium Bahrain is operating at an annualised rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity, while Alba had shut production lines 1, 2 and 3 following disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports rose 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Alcoa also lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes after Cyclone Narelle and bauxite contamination disrupted its Pinjarra refinery. Global aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, while China’s output increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. GCC production plunged 43% year-on-year to 299,000 tonnes, while Russia and Eastern Europe rose 7% and Asia excluding China increased 2%. SHFE aluminium stocks declined by 57,244 tonnes, while LME inventories fell 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter exchange stocks. China’s July unwrought aluminium and semis exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Technically, aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.86% to 4,063 while prices fell Rs 2.5. Support is placed at rs 338.2, and a break below this level could lead to Rs 335.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 343.9, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 347.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 335.8-347.2.

* Aluminium dropped as prospects of improving supply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices.

* Global aluminium production declined by 1.5% year-on-year in August – IAI

* Aluminium stocks on the SHFE decreased by 57,244 tonnes, indicating improved domestic availability in China.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.14% lower at Rs 21,240 as the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and potential crop losses. Improved rainfall has helped replenish key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, ensuring better water availability during the vegetative phase, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following improved rainfall. These developments reduced immediate supply concerns, although overall availability remains structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, limiting the supply buffer. Expectations of a potential El Nino impact, lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key growing regions and earlier deficient rainfall continue to raise concerns over the upcoming crop and could restrict downside. At the same time, farmer selling during the peak harvest period has increased pressure, while stockists remain cautious amid hand-to-mouth supply conditions. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limits regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, weighing on commercial-grade prices, whereas rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at rs 20,525.3, gaining 0.51%. Technically, turmeric remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.64% to 38,385 while prices declined Rs 246. Support is placed at Rs 21,062, and a break below this level could lead to Rs 20,882. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 21,462, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 21,682.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20882-21682.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka eased dry-weather fears.

* Filling up of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20525.3 Rupees gained by 0.51 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.67% higher at Rs 22,540 amid rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with export-grade high-purity varieties becoming increasingly scarce despite stable overall physical crop availability. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started declining significantly, while European and North American buyers have returned, focusing on residue-compliant and high-specification lots. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and weigh on demand from traditional buyers. Upside remains limited as farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the next season, while favorable weather allowed harvesting and drying to be completed earlier. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also increased steadily, reducing urgency among traders, while large industrial spice grinders continue hand-to-mouth purchasing instead of aggressive bulk procurement. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat areas have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities, while improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria are limiting Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists are also reducing forward coverage. Current estimates place India’s jeera production at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Overseas production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes in China, 9,000–10,000 tonnes in Syria, 10,000–11,000 tonnes in Turkey and 10,000–12,000 tonnes in Afghanistan. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, while Libya rose 450% to 341 tonnes, but China exports plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at rs 22,269.55, gaining 0.37%. Technically, jeera is under short covering, with open interest declining 17.71% to 5,145 while prices gained rs 370. Support is placed at Rs 22,270, and a break below this level could lead to rs 22,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 22,700, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 22,860.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22000-22860.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22269.55 Rupees gained by 0.37 percent.

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