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In 2QFY26, most chemical companies under our coverage are likely to witness YoY EBITDA growth except PI Industries, Deepak Nitrite, Clean Science, Fine Organic, Galaxy Surfactants and PCBL. We expect 1) Navin Fluorine, Acutaas Chemicals, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Paradeep Phosphates, and Aether Industries to report a good quarter, 2) SRF, Archean, Anupam, Tatva Chintan, and PCBL to report a resilient print, and 3) PI Industries, Deepak Nitrite, Clean Science, Fine Organic, and Galaxy Surfactants to report a weak quarter. In most cases, US tariff impact is likely to be visible in the second half as certain shipments would have been moved forward to avoid the tariffs. We see higher possibility of earnings downgrades post 2QFY26. We recommend Navin Fluorine and Acutaas as our top picks.

* Navin’s EBITDA likely to be flattish sequentially; SRF’s EBITDA likely to grow ~43% YoY: Navin Fluorine’s 2QFY26 sales is likely to grow 2% QoQ mainly on account of improvement in HPP sales. We expect Navin’s EBITDA margin to be flattish at ~28.3%. As a result, Navin’s EBITDA is likely to be flat sequentially. SRF’s 2QFY26 EBITDA is likely to be up ~43% YoY on account of robust performance in the chemicals business, with decent growth in specialty chemicals, albeit on a low base. This is despite a seasonal slowdown in domestic ref gas sales though ref gas prices have improved. Chemicals sales are likely to be up ~26% YoY. Further, we expect chemicals EBIT margin to improve to ~27.5% in 2QFY26 (vs. ~18.1% in 2QFY25 and ~27.3% in 1QFY26) owing to robust ref gas prices.

* PI’s EBITDA could decline by ~29% YoY; Aether’s EBITDA to rise ~52% YoY: PI’s CSM revenue is likely to be down by ~25% YoY while the domestic business is likely to decline by ~10% YoY. Further, its pharma business could see a jump in sales. As a result, 2QFY26 revenue is likely to decrease ~19%YoY. We expect EBITDA margin to decline by 338bps/241bps YoY/QoQ to ~24.9%. As a result, EBITDA is likely to be down ~29%/14% YoY/QoQ. Aether’s 2QFY26 revenue could jump by 35% YoY largely on account of ramp-up of Baker Hughes contract sales. Moreover, its EBITDA margin is likely to improve to ~30.4% (vs. 27% in 2QFY25). As a result, Aether’s EBITDA is likely to be up by ~52% YoY (up ~1% QoQ).

* Deepak’s EBITDA to improve by ~8% QoQ; Archean’s EBITDA to rise by ~14% QoQ: During 2QFY26, Deepak’s advanced intermediates (AI) sales could rise by ~6% sequentially (on a low base) while AI EBIT margin could increase to ~6.7% (vs. ~5.9% in 1QFY26). We expect phenolics EBIT to be up 10% QoQ. Further, we expect a sequential ~8% improvement in EBITDA driven by a likely margin improvement in both AI and phenolics segments. Archean’s 2QFY26 sales is likely to improve ~8% QoQ on account of higher salt volumes and increase in bromine derivatives contribution while bromine sales are likely to be flattish sequentially. Further, EBITDA margin is expected to improve QoQ to ~28.2% (from 26.7% in 1QFY26). As a result, EBITDA is likely to grow by ~14%/19% QoQ/YoY.

* Acutaas’ EBITDA to go up by ~44% YoY; Paradeep’s EBITDA to increase by ~18% YoY: For Acutaas, we estimate ~13% YoY rise in sales in 2QFY26 mainly on account of ramp-up of CDMO sales. Further, we expect 539bps EBITDA margin increase YoY owing to higher CDMO contribution. As a result, Acutaas’ EBITDA is likely to grow by ~44% YoY. Paradeep is likely to see ~3% YoY increase in manufactured volume on account of improved sales volumes of DAP, NPK and urea. Further, on account of 158bps YoY improvement in EBITDA margin, we expect Paradeep to register ~18% YoY EBITDA growth.

* GFL’s EBITDA to go up by ~7% sequentially: For Gujarat Fluorochemicals, we estimate ~3% QoQ improvement in sales in 2QFY26 mainly on account of improvement in sales across all segments. Further, we expect sequential 99bps EBITDA margin increase owing to improvement in gross margin. As a result, GFL’s EBITDA is likely to grow by ~7% QoQ.

* Fine Organic’s EBITDA to decline by ~8% QoQ and Tatva Chintan’s EBITDA to grow ~7% sequentially: We estimate that Fine’s 2QFY26 sales will decline by ~4% QoQ. Further, due to a slight decline in EBITDA margin, Fine’s EBITDA is likely to decline ~8% QoQ. We estimate Tatva’s sales to rise by ~3% QoQ on account of sales improvement across all segments. Further, we expect EBITDA margin to rise by 52bps sequentially. As a result, Tatva’s EBITDA is likely to jump by ~7%/231% QoQ/YoY.

* Anupam Rasayan’s EBITDA to grow ~49% YoY; PCBL’s EBITDA to grow ~4% QoQ: We estimate Anupam Rasayan’s 2QFY26 sales to grow ~63% YoY while EBITDA margin could decline 244bps YoY on account of decline in gross margin. As a result, Anupam’s EBITDA is likely to grow ~49% YoY. For PCBL, we expect ~2% QoQ improvement in sales with flattish carbon black volume off-take and slight improvement in Aquapharm sales. Further, we expect sequentially flat EBITDA margin. As a result, we expect PCBL’s EBITDA to grow by ~4% QoQ.

* Clean Science EBITDA to decline ~5% YoY; Galaxy Surfactants EBITDA to decline by ~3% QoQ: We estimate Clean’s 2QFY26 revenue to decline by ~7% YoY on account of decline in performance chemicals and pharma & agro segments sales. Further, EBITDA margin is likely to improve by 79bps YoY to ~38.5%. As a result, EBITDA is likely to decline by ~5% YoY. For Galaxy Surfactants, we expect volume growth to improve slightly QoQ along with decline in EBITDA/MT to ~INR 17,407/MT (vs. ~INR 18,345/MT in 1QFY26). This is likely to result in EBITDA decline of ~3% QoQ.

* Changes in rating and TP: On account of change in the rating system, we change our rating from (i) HOLD to REDUCE for Galaxy Surfactants, Archean Chemical, PCBL, and PI Industries, (ii) BUY to ADD for Acutaas, and (iii) SELL to REDUCE for Paradeep Phosphates. We reduce our target multiple for – i) Clean Science owing to weakness in ramp-up of new products, resulting in a revised Sep’26 TP INR 1,355/share (from INR 1,780 earlier), ii) Galaxy Surfactants on account of sustained demand weakness, resulting in a revised Sep’26 TP of INR 2,335/share (from INR 2,515 earlier), iii) for Aquapharm in PCBL, resulting in a revised Sep’26 TP of INR 390/share (from INR 430 earlier)

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