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Healthy Q4; watchful on order finalizations

Quick Pointers:

* Order inflows grew by 44.3% YoY to Rs6.3bn with a domestic/export mix of 70%/30%

* Order book stands at Rs19.1bn with a domestic/export mix of 43%/57% and a Product/Aftermarket mix of 86%/14%

We revise our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by -7.4%/-8.8% accounting for elongation of order finalization and back ended U.S. revenue. Triveni Turbine (TRIV) reported a healthy quarter with revenue growth of 17.5% YoY while EBITDA margin improved by 277bps YoY to 22.4%. Despite muted order booking (ex. CO2 battery storage order) during the quarter, the inquiry pipeline saw a robust growth — up 120% domestically and 30% in exports — driven by rising demand across key sectors such as steel, cement, and oil & gas, and expanding presence in international markets including the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa. The continued momentum in API turbine demand is expected to fuel growth in the products segment across geographies. Additionally, the high-margin Aftermarket business is poised for sustained expansion, supported by Triveni’s growing installed base. While order finalizations face short-term delays due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, the underlying demand environment and market positioning remain strong.

We believe TRIV’s prospects continue to remain strong due to 1) healthy enquiry pipeline across markets, 2) growing share of higher margin exports & aftermarket sales, 3) strong traction in both industrial & API drive turbines, and 4) robust order book with strong inflows across businesses. The stock is trading at a P/E of 37.7x/29.0x on FY26/27E EPS. We roll forward to Mar’27E and maintain ‘Buy’ rating with a revised TP of Rs772 (Rs744 earlier), valuing the stock at a P/E of 40x Mar’27E (40x Sep’26E earlier).

Healthy product sales propel strong growth: Consolidated revenue grew 17.5% YoY to Rs5.4bn (PLe: Rs5.7bn) driven by Product revenue growth of 25.4% YoY to Rs3.9bn while Aftermarket sales were flat YoY at Rs1.4bn. EBITDA rose 34.0% YoY to Rs1.2bn (PLe: Rs1.3bn). EBITDA margin improved by 277bps to 22.4% (PLe: 22.5%), aided by lower other expenses (-390bps YoY % of sales). Adj. PAT grew 23.6% YoY to Rs939mn (PLe: Rs1.1bn) aided by healthy operating performance and higher other income (up 16.3% YoY to Rs199mn).

Strong order book of Rs19.1bn (1.0x TTM Revenue): Q4FY25 order inflow came in at Rs6.3bn (+44.3% YoY). Domestic orders jumped 150.1% YoY to Rs4.4bn driven by Rs2.9bn CO2 energy storage order from NTPC. Excluding CO2 battery storage order, domestic order intake declined ~15% YoY to ~Rs1.5bn. Meanwhile, export order intake declined 27.4% YoY to Rs1.9bn. Product orders increased by 68.9% YoY to Rs4.6bn while Aftermarket orders grew 3.7% YoY to Rs1.7bn. Order book stands at Rs19.1bn with a domestic/export mix of 43%/57% (vs 48%/52% in Q4FY24) and a Product/Aftermarket mix of 86%/14% (vs 82%/18% in Q4FY24).

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