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Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) posted 3% YoY/20% QoQ higher wholesales in Q3 to 104K units (despite the temporary discontinuation of Jaguar in UK), along with the bestever model mix; share of Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender rose to 70% (vs 67%/62% in Q2FY25/Q3FY24). Refer to our note ‘Strong pickup expected at JLR in H2’; largely normalized production and strong mix are seen driving sharp QoQ margin improvement at JLR (15% vs 11.7%/15.8% in Q2/Q1). Elsewhere, India CV outlook is improving (albeit gradually, amid slower than anticipated public capex uptick), while India PV outlook remains soft despite the recent Curvv SUV launch, with emerging EV competition slated to impact TTMT’s positioning. We trim India PV EPS by ~4.5%/2.5% for FY26E/27E (driving 1.6% lower FY27E consol EPS), and introduce 20% discount in the target multiple for India PVs (~1.3x Dec-26E EV/S vs ~1.7x for MSIL); after roll-over to Dec-26E, our revised SoTP-based TP is Rs950. We retain BUY, amid JLR staying on track for ~£1bn FCF this year with net-cash balance sheet, and India CV outlook gradually improving with better profitability.

Strong come back at JLR accompanied by best-ever model mix

JLR posted 3% YoY/20% QoQ higher wholesales in Q3 at 104.4K units amid improved supplies following a disrupted Q2, despite reportedly temporarily halting Jaguar sales in the UK from Nov-24. Volumes of Range Rover/Range Rover Sport/Defender rose 22%/17%/13% YoY, respectively, taking the combined contribution in overall JLR volumes to 70% vs 67%/62% in Q2FY25/Q3FY24, in line with our expectation of sharp improvement in H2 amid the company’s continued focus on power brands/mix improvement. In terms of geographies, North America sales rose 44% YoY, with Europe up 6%, China down 38%, UK down 17%, and other regions down 1%. Retail volumes at JLR were down 3% YoY/up 3% QoQ.

Q3FY25E: Higher volumes, better mix at JLR to drive healthy consolidated Q3

We expect higher volumes and improved mix to drive a sharp ~330bps QoQ margin uptick at JLR in Q3, at 15% (vs 15.8% in Q1FY25, 16.2% in Q2FY24). In the standalone business, we build-in ~80bps QoQ margin improvement to 11.5% driven by ~12% higher sequential volumes and better mix (share of MHCVs at 19% vs 17% in Q2). We factor in the flattish QoQ margin performance for India PVs at 6%, with higher volumes being offset by elevated discounting levels in the industry. At the consolidated level, we build-in ~10% YoY revenue growth and ~110bps higher margins QoQ at 12.6%.

India PVs: Outlook soft; we trim PV EPS by ~4.5%/2.5% in FY26E/27E

Notably, the India PV industry outlook remains soft, amid a) elevated inventory levels even post-festive (55-60 days as of Dec-24, as per FADA – refer to press release), b) sharply-higher discounts, and c) major new ICE launches being behind (including for TTMT); TTMT’s recentlylaunched Curvv SUV has seen a subdued response. Moreover, rising competition in EVs (amid upcoming model launches by incumbents as well as new OEMs like JSW-MG) is likely to impact market leader TTMT’s positioning (albeit TTMT also has launches of its own). Amid the rising uncertainty, we trim FY26E/27E EPS for the India PV business by ~4.5%/~2.5%, leading to 1.6% lower EPS for consolidated operations in FY27E. We also introduce 20% discount in our target multiple for India PVs (~1.3x Dec-26E EV/Sales vs ~1.7x for MSIL).

We maintain BUY, driven by improvement at JLR and India CVs

For TTMT, a) JLR improvement continues along expected lines, with the company on track for ~£1bn FCF this year, along with a net-cash balance sheet, b) India CV space is also seen recovering (albeit gradually, amid delay in public capex uptick), further accompanied by better profitability, and c) India PV outlook is soft amid growth concerns and rising EV competition. We maintain BUY on TAMO, with revised SoTP-based TP of Rs950, after roll-over to Dec-26E.

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