Buy Marico Ltd for the Target Rs.810 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
We maintain BUY with Jun-26E TP of Rs810, on 50x P/E. We see improved execution ahead helping in driving growth and better margins which would enable the company to see ~12% earnings CAGR over FY25-28E. The new portfolio (1/4th of consolidated revenue) in India and internationally is aligning with consumer needs, enhancing longevity of growth. In India, the new-age portfolio in food and digital brands accounts for 22% of revenue. Internationally, Marico has created a premium portfolio, which represents 29% of sales. We see execution in this portfolio being key for its aspiration to double revenue by 2030 (~15% CAGR). In FY25, the company’s earnings grew by 10% which helped with a better dividend and return profile (ROE ~42%, +3ppt YoY), although higher working capital needs kept the OCF flat YoY.
Aspiring to double revenue by 2030 by strengthening growth construct Having crossed the Rs100bn milestone in FY25, the company now aims to double revenue over the next 5Y. The focus remains on outperforming core categories, gaining market share, and scaling up emerging businesses profitably. In India, the management sees tailwinds in rural and opportunities among the youth (where D2C brands are reshaping the FMCG ecosystem). Ahead, Marico would maintain its thrust on execution around newage consumers, where needs are evolving fast. In FY25, the company’s new growth engine in India (combined ARR of Rs20bn) was sized at Rs9bn in food, Rs3bn in premium personal care, and Rs6bn in the digital-first portfolio. Amid digital brands, Plix is now the biggest with revenue of Rs4.3bn (grew 179% YoY; holds the potential to reach Rs10bn in the medium term), followed by Beardo at Rs2.1bn (grew 24% YoY; medium-term potential at Rs5bn). The company maintains its focus on general trade (5.8mn outlets; under Project SETU, it aspires to expand its current 1mn direct reach to 1.5mn outlets by FY27). Internationally, its focus is on innovation and expansion in premium personal care categories, which now account for 29% of international revenue

Coconut oil revenue concentration influences profitability Marico’s sizable revenue (1/3rd in India and ~3/5th in Bangladesh) is concentrated in the coconut oil segment, which now accounts for 31% of revenue. With a focus on diversification, it has reduced category dependence by ~5ppt in the last five years. This diversification is reflected in relatively better gross margin management in the current inflationary cycle. We see steady revenue diversification ahead which will arrest margin volatility. Copra, a key raw material, has seen a sharp surge in prices in the last 6M across India and Indonesia. Recent trends suggest easing in copra prices, with price deflation accelerating on improvement in seasonal supplies. We believe the initial thrust should be on maintaining the current price premium; as copra prices reach comfort zone, the company should focus on recouping the price premium.
Valuation aligns with 5YF average; re-rating likely on enhanced execution We like Marico, given its attentiveness to align the business with evolving consumer needs. Its current valuation (FY27E P/E at 43x) aligns with the 5YF average P/E which is likely to expand on better delivery ahead. We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs810.
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