Buy Ethos Ltd for the Target Rs.3,200 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Our analysis of global Swiss watch exports in CY25 suggests that the Indian market continues to outperform significantly, although overall global exports were stable, mostly due to weakness in China and HK markets. Given ~17% export CAGR over CY21-25, India has inched up to 20th/15th rank in CY25/Jan26, respectively (vs 23 rd in CY22), in terms of Swiss watch exports globally. Across brands, global performance was divergent in CY25. Most brands in the high-luxury segment (retail price: >Rs3mn) saw broad-based growth, while performance in the luxury segment (Rs0.5-3.0mn) was a mixed bag, and most brands in the premium segment (
India leads global Swiss watch export growth; duty cuts to aid margins India is on the cusp of a luxury segment explosion, with accelerated growth in HNWIs and growing per-capita ownership of luxury watches. With Swiss exports (in CHF terms) growing at a CAGR of ~17% over CY21-25, India has outperformed global trends, and is gradually gaining incremental mindshare of global brands. Ethos’s ‘ahead of the curve’ investments in people and luxury real estate and a strengthened balance sheet (Rs8bn cash) are driving growth outperformance and market-share gains. Also, margins have tangible tailwinds in terms of gradual elimination of customs duty and ramp-up of recent luxury locations (Mall of Asia/City of Times), though near-term margins have been hit by a timing mismatch between MRP revisions and rupee depreciation. In addition to new watch retail, the Lifestyle segment is gaining focus and has exponential growth prospects, with strong initial traction for Rimowa/Messika and a preferential issue of Rs1.8bn in subsidiary Ethos Lifestyle (at Rs8.5bn valuation).
CY25 saw mixed trends across global brands The global luxury watch industry is largely concentrated into 5-6 large luxury groups and few large independent high-end luxury brands. During CY25, the global luxury watch industry saw divergent growth trends. Few brands like Jacob & Co, Franck Muller, Tudor, Raymond Weil, and Christopher Ward saw outsized growth. On the other hand, Rolex, H. Moser, IWC, and Frederique Constant saw mid-single-digit growth, while most other luxury and premium brands (retail price:
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