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PAX rises due to robust demand; IndiGo’s share at ~64%

* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic grew ~9% YoY in Mar’25 to 14.5m (up ~3.5% MoM). Though it was above pre-COVID levels, passenger growth decreased for Spicejet MoM.

* The average domestic Passenger Load Factor (PLF) declined 420bp MoM in Mar’25. PLF rose MoM for IndiGo, while it declined for Air India (AI), Akasa, and SpiceJet. The OnTime Performance (OTP) increased 980bp MoM for airlines; the domestic average was 78.8% in Mar’25. The cancellation rate decreased 15bp MoM to 0.4% in Mar’25.

* IndiGo’s market share improved MoM following decrease in market share of AI, Spicejet MoM.

India's domestic air PAX and market share

* India's domestic air PAX increased ~9% YoY (increased ~3.5% MoM) to 14.54m in Mar’25. Domestic PAX stood at 9.31m for IndiGo (up 15% YoY), 3.9m for AI Group (down 2% YoY), 0.7m for Akasa (up 22% YoY), and 0.3m for SpiceJet (down 53% YoY).

* India's domestic air PAX increased ~8% YoY to ~165m in FY25. Domestic PAX stood at ~104m for IndiGo (up 10% YoY), ~47m for AI Group (up 10% YoY), ~7.7m for Akasa (up 12% YoY), and ~5.6m for SpiceJet (down 33% YoY).

* Domestic market share stood at 64% for IndiGo in Mar’25 (up 350bp YoY), 26.7% for AI Group (down 280bp YoY), 5% for Akasa (up 50bp YoY), and 2.3% for SpiceJet (down 280bp YoY).

* Average Domestic market share stood at ~63% for IndiGo in FY25 (up 140bp YoY), 28.6% for AI Group (up 70bp YoY), 4.6% for Akasa (up 10bp YoY), and ~3% for SpiceJet (down 200bp YoY).

Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP

* Domestic PLF stood at 76.3% in Mar’25 (80.5% in Feb’25 and 71% Mar’24). PLF stood at 84.6% for IndiGo (down 30bp YoY), 80.6% for AI Group (down 360bp YoY), 92.5% for Akasa (down 410bp YoY), and 84.8% for SpiceJet (down 790bp YoY).

* Average Domestic PLF stood at 75.5% in FY25 (down 710bp YoY). PLF stood at 86.7% for IndiGo (down 20bp YoY), 86% for AI Group (down 230bp YoY), 89.9% for Akasa (down 60bp YoY), and 87.3% for SpiceJet (down 540bp YoY).

* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top six airports was at 78.8% in Mar’25. OTP stood at 88.1% for IndiGo (81.3% in Mar’24), 82% for AI Group (71.9%), 86.9% for Akasa (84.5%) and 72.1% for SpiceJet (63.6%)

* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top airports was at 66.7% for FY25 (at average of 73.3% in FY24) OTP stood at 73.8% for IndiGo (81.3%) 67.5% for AI Group (69.7%), 73.8% for Akasa (81.3%) and 53% for SpiceJet (57.5%)

Other highlights

* The Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) price for Apr’25 was INR89,441/klit (down 11% YoY/up 6% MoM). For 4QFY25, the ATF price stood at INR93,767/klit (up 4% QoQ and down 8% YoY), while for 3QFY25, the ATF price stood at INR89,998/klit. The average ATF price for FY25 was at INR94,707 (down 7% YoY).

* Currently, Brent crude stands at USD69.2/bbl (average of USD72.8/bbl in Mar’25 and USD75.8/bbl in 4QFY25). Brent crude stands at USD78.7/bbl for FY25 (average of USD 83/bbl in FY24).

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