IGI Logo

Festive and GST rationalization-led growth

The auto sector reported a robust set of wholesale numbers, with all the segments posting strong numbers. PV and LCV segment volumes grew in double digits, whereas domestic 2W and tractor segments grew in high-single digits in October 2025. Retail trends remained strong across segments after September 22, driven by GST cuts and festive demand. Export segment remained strong across 2W, PV and CV segments. In terms of OEMs, TTMT, MM, EIM and ESC reported better-than-expected prints..

Domestic wholesale PV volumes saw mid-teens growth yoy in October 2025

Based on our estimates, domestic PV industry wholesale volumes grew midteens yoy, driven by strong retail trends after September 22, led by GST rationalization and festive growth during Navratra and Diwali. Retail volumes grew 11% yoy in October 2025. MSIL’s volumes rose 7% yoy, led by 9.4% yoy growth in the domestic segment and a 5.6% yoy decline in exports. TTMT’s volumes rose 27% yoy, whereas M&M’s PV volumes increased 31% yoy. HMIL reported a 3% yoy decline in domestic volumes in October 2025. Toyota and Kia reported >30% yoy increase during the month.

Domestic 2W wholesales grew in high-single digits yoy in October 2025

Based on our estimates, domestic 2W wholesale volumes grew in mid-high single-digits, driven by strong momentum in scooter and motorcycle segments amid GST rate cuts and strong festive sales, partly impacted by a high base of last year (late festive). Retail volumes rose 55% yoy on account of a favorable base (festive sales were captured in the month of November) and EV 2W retail sales increased 3% yoy in October 2025. Like-for-like retail volumes grew 20- 25% yoy for the industry. TVSL 2W volumes grew 11% yoy, driven by 8% yoy growth in domestic volumes and 21% yoy growth in export volumes. Royal Enfield’s volumes grew 13% yoy, led by 15% yoy growth in domestic and a 7% decline in exports.

CV segment volumes witnessed double-digit growth in October 2025

Domestic CV segment wholesale volumes saw a double-digit increase yoy, driven by strong growth in the LCV segment. Retail volumes saw a 20% yoy rise in October 2025, driven by the LGV segment. TTMT domestic CV volumes rose 7% yoy, led by (1) a 7% yoy increase in HCV truck segments, (2) a 6% increase in ILMCV truck segment and (3) a 7% yoy rise in SCV segments. AL reported a 16% yoy increase, while VECV’s volumes grew 13% yoy in October 2025.

Domestic tractor segment momentum remains strong in October 2025

Based on our estimates, domestic tractor segment volumes grew in high-single digits after reporting 43% yoy growth in the month of October. The strong growth was driven by (1) benefits of the GST cut, (2) normal monsoon and (3) favorable terms of trade for farmers. M&M’s tractor volumes grew 13% yoy, whereas Escorts Kubota’s tractor volumes grew 4% yoy in October 2025.

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.kotaksecurities.com/disclaimer

SEBI Registration No. INZ000200137