Aluminium trading range for the day is 310.4-324 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices edged higher, settling 0.15% up at Rs1,42,241, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Sentiment was underpinned after US prosecutors launched a criminal investigation linked to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, adding to market unease over political pressure on monetary policy. Geopolitical risks also intensified after former President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, alongside renewed military warnings, keeping haven buying intact. Market focus has now shifted to upcoming US inflation data, which could provide clearer guidance on the Fed’s policy path, especially after recent jobs data pointed to a cooling labor market. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady this month, expectations for two rate cuts later this year continue to lend support to bullion. Major banks remain bullish, with several raising 2026 gold price forecasts toward $4,900–$5,000/oz, citing sustained geopolitical risks, rising global debt, and central bank demand. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with high prices curbing buying in India, while premiums rose sharply in China after the holiday period. Central bank purchases, particularly from China, remain a key pillar supporting prices. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 1.53% as prices rose Rs209. Gold has support at Rs1,41,380, below which it may test Rs1,40,525. Resistance is seen at Rs1,43,020, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs1,43,805.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 140525-143805.
* Gold gains supported by haven demand amid renewed concerns over the Fed’s independence and geopolitical uncertainty.
* Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, after repeatedly warning of possible military action amid widespread protests in the country.
* Commerzbank raises 2026 year – end gold forecast to $4,900/oz
Silver
Silver prices surged sharply, settling 2.31% higher at Rs2,75,187, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence, escalating geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade risks. Market sentiment was unsettled after US federal prosecutors threatened action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising questions over political pressure on monetary policy. Geopolitical risks also intensified due to unrest in Iran and warnings from the Trump administration of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, underpinning haven buying. Macroeconomic data offered limited relief, with US inflation holding steady at 2.7% in December and consumer prices rising 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations. While labor market data showed modest improvement, uncertainty around future policy direction continued to support precious metals. Major banks remain constructive on silver’s outlook, with forecasts for 2026 raised sharply, citing a weaker dollar, gold’s momentum, and sustained institutional demand despite volatility concerns. On the supply side, global liquidity remains tight. Chinese silver inventories have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, following record exports to London, while borrowing costs in London remain elevated. Although industrial and jewelry demand is softening, investment demand continues to provide a strong floor. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 1.96% as prices jumped Rs6,217. Silver has support at Rs2,67,640, below which it may test Rs2,60,090. Resistance is seen at Rs2,81,135, and a breakout could lead prices toward Rs2,87,080.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 260090-287080.
* Silver rallied as concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence, geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade fears.
* The annual inflation rate in the US remained at 2.7% in December 2025, the same as in November and in line with market expectations.
* Trump warned that any country conducting business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all US transactions.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices rallied sharply, settling 3.37% higher at Rs5,515, as heightened geopolitical risks outweighed concerns about potential supply additions from Venezuela. Sentiment was boosted by escalating tensions around Iran, a key OPEC producer exporting nearly 2 million barrels per day, and fresh supply-risk headlines after reports that two oil tankers were attacked near the Black Sea loading terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Further support came after US President Donald Trump warned that countries trading with Iran could face 25% tariffs, intensifying fears of disruption to Iranian exports, particularly to China. Brent’s premium over the Dubai benchmark climbed to its highest level since July, reflecting tightening Middle East risk premiums. At the same time, markets remain cautious about additional barrels from Venezuela, with expectations that up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude could return. Supply risks from Russia also persist amid Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and the threat of tougher US sanctions. On the data front, US crude inventories fell by 1.934 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, though overall commercial stocks remain above historical averages, signaling a still-oversupplied global market. Rising gasoline and distillate inventories highlighted continued weakness in refined product demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 7.48% alongside a Rs180 price gain. Crude oil has support at Rs5,396, below which prices may test Rs5,278, while resistance is seen at Rs5,595, and a breakout could extend gains toward Rs5,676.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5278-5676.
* Crude oil prices gained amid heightened concerns surrounding major producer Iran and potential supply disruptions
* Two oil tankers were attacked near the Black Sea loading terminal for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
* Brent crude oil's premium to Middle East benchmark Dubai rose to its highest since July.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices ended marginally higher, settling 0.03% up at Rs304.6, as colder weather forecasts provided limited support, though gains were capped by expectations of generally warmer-than-normal conditions through late January. Output in the Lower 48 states eased to an average of 109.1 bcfd so far in January, slipping from December’s record highs. On a daily basis, production fell toward a three-week low of around 108.0 bcfd, driven mainly by declines in Louisiana and Texas. Despite this, supply remains historically strong. On the demand side, LSEG projects total gas demand, including exports, to rise modestly from 130.8 bcfd this week to 132.3 bcfd next week, although these forecasts were revised lower compared to earlier estimates, reflecting subdued heating needs. Storage data offered some support, with US utilities withdrawing a larger-than-expected 119 bcf for the week ended January 2, sharply above both last year’s draw and the five-year average. Inventories now stand at 3.261 tcf, slightly below last year’s levels but still near the seasonal norm. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US natural gas production and demand to reach record levels in 2025 and 2026, underscoring longer-term supply abundance despite near-term weather volatility. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 6.26% while prices edged higher. Natural gas finds support at Rs296.6, below which prices could test Rs288.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs314.4, and a move above this level may open the door toward Rs324.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 288.7-324.3.
* Natural gas rose as new weather forecasts showed colder conditions developing across much of the country.
* U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to an average of $3.96 per mmBtu in 2026.
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 1 to 124.
Copper
Copper prices edged lower, settling 0.43% down at Rs1,309.55, as easing expectations of imminent US rate cuts triggered profit-booking at higher levels. Despite the decline, downside remained limited, supported by tightening availability in the London Metal Exchange (LME) system. On-warrant LME copper inventories fell sharply by 22% to a six-month low of 89,725 tonnes, reflecting continued stock movements toward the United States, where prices command a premium amid speculation over potential US tariffs on refined copper. This has pushed the LME cash-to-three-month spread to $64 per tonne, highlighting near-term supply tightness outside the US. Fundamental sentiment remains mixed but broadly supportive. A weaker US dollar and rising optimism around Chinese demand provided underlying support, as Beijing prepares fresh fiscal and financial measures to boost household consumption and infrastructure spending in early 2026. Supply-side constraints also aided prices, with output declines reported at Chile’s Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine. However, gains were capped by rising inventories in China, with SHFE stocks up 24.2%, indicating surplus material in the domestic market. On the macro front, the International Copper Study Group reported a 122,000-tonne refined surplus for the first ten months of 2025, even as apparent demand grew strongly. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 3.48% alongside softer prices. Copper has support at Rs1,295.8, below which it may test Rs1,282.1, while resistance is seen at Rs1,321.6, and a break higher could target Rs1,333.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1282.1-1333.7.
* Copper prices slid as expectations eased for rate cuts in the United States, sparking a bout of profit-booking.
* Available LME copper inventories slide to six – month low
* Inventories in U.S. Comex warehouses have surged by 444% over the last 12 months to 520,441 short tons.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged marginally lower, settling 0.08% down at Rs312.45, as traders booked profits after recent gains driven by optimism over Chinese demand. While sentiment has been supported by tightening inventories and ongoing supply-side disruptions, upside momentum remained capped due to lingering concerns over the strength of demand in China, particularly from the property sector. Recent data showing weaker property investment and sales weighed on prices despite an unexpected improvement in China’s factory activity in December, which ended an eight-month contraction streak. On the supply front, near-term fundamentals remain mixed. Several Chinese zinc mines are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce concentrate availability. A major mine in southwest China, having largely met its annual production target, plans maintenance that could cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while a central China mine is also set for downtime, reducing effective production days. Inventories present a contrasting picture. After the sharp depletion of LME off-warrant stocks earlier in 2025 and the subsequent squeeze, metal deliveries surged, lifting total LME stocks by over 84,000 tonnes in November and December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.59% alongside a mild price decline. Zinc has support at Rs310.2, below which it may test Rs307.9, while resistance is seen at Rs315, and a move above that could target Rs317.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.9-317.5.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid optimism over strong demand from China
* Tightening inventories and ongoing supply disruptions, also supported in capping gains
* Total LME stocks jumped by over 84,000 tons in November and December
Aluminium
Aluminium prices moved higher, settling 0.38% up at Rs318.45, supported by persistent global supply tightness and improving demand sentiment. The global primary aluminium market remained in deficit, with supply falling short of demand by 108,700 tonnes in October, taking the cumulative shortfall for the first ten months of the year to 955,500 tonnes. During this period, global production of 61.22 million tonnes lagged consumption of 62.17 million tonnes, reinforcing expectations of a structurally tight market. Sentiment was further bolstered by optimism around China’s economic outlook after Beijing signaled continued policy support. China’s central bank reaffirmed plans to cut reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in 2026, maintain ample liquidity, and strengthen counter-cyclical measures to support domestic demand. At the same time, authorities reiterated their commitment to preventing overcapacity in metals, effectively limiting output growth as China nears its 45-million-tonne production cap. This has curbed exports, which fell 9.2% year-on-year in November, while expansion plans abroad face challenges from high energy costs and regulatory risks. On the inventory front, SHFE stocks rose 10.8%, offering some near-term cushion, though aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports declined 5.2%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 6.64% as prices edged higher. Aluminium has support at Rs314.4, below which it could test Rs310.4, while resistance is seen at Rs321.2, and a breakout may open the way toward Rs324.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 310.4-324.
* Aluminium gains driven by a 108,700-ton global supply deficit in October.
* Support seen as investors reassessed expectations around tightening supply and robust global demand.
* China's central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity ample
Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined by 1.94% to Rs17,516, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favourable rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. The 2026 crop is shaping up with expanded planted area; however, supply growth is likely to remain moderate as weather irregularities and localized disease issues offset acreage gains. Yield losses of 15–20% have been reported in pockets of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to excessive rains, while unseasonal rainfall in August–September caused waterlogging and disease across nearly 15% of area in parts of Marathwada. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall availability. Despite the near-term pressure, downside remains limited as arrivals are below normal and both farmers and stockists have sharply reduced inventories. Strong domestic and export demand, particularly from Europe and the US, continues to support sentiment. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05%, while imports dropped sharply, tightening net supply. In spot markets, Nizamabad prices edged up 0.21% to Rs16,804.6, reflecting underlying firmness. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.69% while prices fell Rs346. Support is seen at Rs17,242, below which prices may test Rs16,966. Resistance is placed at Rs17,872, and a move above could push prices toward Rs18,226.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16966-18226.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.
* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16804.6 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices eased marginally, settling 0.32% lower at Rs23,685, pressured by comfortable near-term supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Export demand remains largely price-sensitive, with current overseas requirements being met from available inventories. In the spot market, Unjha prices declined 0.69% to Rs22,602.1, reflecting cautious buying sentiment. However, the downside is limited as arrivals remain low, partly due to Diwali holidays, and quality jeera continues to command a premium. On the supply side, sowing progress in Gujarat stands at 3,98,438 hectares, down 16.31% year-on-year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and delayed field readiness. Weather uncertainties are supporting prices, with farmers facing difficulties in timely sowing. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat and Rajasthan contributing 42–45 lakh bags and 48–50 lakh bags, respectively. Globally, adverse weather has also trimmed output estimates in China and other producing regions. Despite supply-side support, upside remains capped as foreign buying stays muted. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 fell 13.21% year-on-year, highlighting weak external demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 8.3% while prices fell Rs75. Support is seen at Rs23,460, below which prices may test Rs23,240. Resistance stands at Rs23,940, and a move above could push prices toward Rs24,200.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23240-24200.
* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476,097 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22602.1 Rupees dropped by -0.69 percent.
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