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Gold

Gold prices edged lower, settling 0.42% down at Rs142,517, as safe-haven demand eased and expectations of an imminent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. Geopolitical risk premiums softened after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a possible delay in military action against Iran, following Tehran’s assurances regarding protesters and signs of easing internal unrest. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted investors to pare back aggressive easing bets, with markets now largely pricing the first Fed rate cut in July rather than June, keeping near-term yields supportive of the dollar and weighing on bullion. Despite the short-term correction, broader fundamentals remain constructive. Gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tonnes, reflecting continued institutional interest. Major banks remain bullish on the medium-term outlook: Commerzbank lifted its 2026 year-end forecast to $4,900/oz, while HSBC and UBS see prices testing $5,000/oz in 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising debt levels, and structural central-bank demand. Physical demand showed mixed trends. Indian retail buying remained subdued due to elevated prices, with dealers offering discounts of up to $12/oz, while Chinese demand stayed relatively steady ahead of the Lunar New Year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.95%. Gold has support at Rs141,390, below which prices may test Rs140,255. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs143,490, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs144,455.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140255-144455.

* Gold prices slipped amid reduced safe-haven demand and fading expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by Fed.

* Geopolitical risks in Iran temporarily eased after President Donald Trump indicated he may delay any military action.

* Strong US economic data prompted investors to scale back bets on imminent interest rate cuts.

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply, settling 1.31% lower at Rs287,762, as risk premium across commodities eased after the U.S. refrained from imposing tariffs on critical minerals. Earlier fears of potential U.S. import levies had driven an aggressive rally in silver and base metals, with traders front-loading shipments into the U.S. Safe-haven demand also moderated after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that executions of protesters in Iran had stopped, reducing immediate geopolitical escalation risks. Despite the correction, silver remains supported on a broader weekly basis. The metal continues to benefit from its strategic importance after being added to the U.S. critical minerals list, reflecting its essential role in solar energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. Expectations of eventual U.S. rate cuts also underpin sentiment, although Federal Reserve officials reiterated the need to maintain a restrictive stance until inflation shows clearer signs of cooling. On the fundamental side, silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes by end-December 2025, highlighting steady institutional interest. Major banks remain constructive over the medium term, with Commerzbank projecting $95/oz by end-2026. The market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.19% alongside a price decline, indicating bearish positioning. Silver has immediate support at Rs283,585; a break below could test Rs279,405. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs292,405, and a sustained move above this level may open the path toward Rs297,045.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 279405-297045.

* Silver fell as the US decided to refrain from imposing tariffs on critical minerals.

* Safe-haven demand for precious metals also eased after Trump said he had been assured that executions of protesters in Iran had stopped.

* Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198,000, while the four-week average eased to 205,000 from 211,500

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 1.55% higher at Rs5,449, as markets continued to price in lingering supply risks despite a reduction in immediate geopolitical tensions. While the likelihood of a U.S. military strike against Iran has receded following assurances of easing crackdowns, investors remain cautious about potential disruptions to Iranian output or key Middle East shipping routes should tensions re-escalate. On the supply-demand front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration signaled a structural shift ahead, projecting U.S. crude production to peak in 2025 before easing in 2026–27, while petroleum demand is expected to remain steady. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports surged, with December volumes up 17% year-on-year and full-year 2025 imports rising 4.4%, underscoring resilient Asian demand. Inventory data, however, capped sharper gains. U.S. crude stocks rose 3.4 million barrels, far above expectations, alongside a hefty build in gasoline inventories, pointing to near-term oversupply concerns. Offsetting this, the International Energy Agency revised up global demand growth forecasts and trimmed supply growth estimates, narrowing the projected surplus for 2026. OPEC+ output edged higher in November, while demand for OPEC+ crude is expected to remain robust through 2026. Crude oil is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.48% alongside price gains. Support is placed at Rs5,370, below which prices may test Rs5,292. Resistance stands at Rs5,501, and a decisive break could open the upside toward Rs5,554.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5292-5554.

* Crude oil prices rose as supply risks remained in focus despite the receding likelihood of a U.S. military strike against Iran.

* Investors continue to weigh the potential for supply outages should tensions in the Middle East escalate.

* President Trump has temporarily pulled back from threats to strike Iran.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.95% lower at Rs280.4, pressured by storage data indicating looser supply-demand fundamentals. U.S. gas inventories declined by 71 bcf in the latest week, well below market expectations of a 90 bcf draw and significantly under last year’s 227 bcf withdrawal and the five-year average of 146 bcf. The smaller draw reflected warmer-than-normal weather, which curtailed heating demand, and contributed to bearish sentiment. Total storage levels now stand at 3.185 tcf, around 1% higher year-on-year and 3.4% above the five-year average, highlighting comfortable inventory levels. Adding to the downside, LNG feedgas flows eased in recent days, reducing export-linked demand, although early signs of recovery in flows have emerged. Production has edged down from December’s record highs but remains historically elevated. Weather forecasts continue to show colder-than-normal conditions through late January, with the coldest period expected around mid-month; however, demand expectations for the coming week were revised lower, limiting upside support. Looking ahead, the EIA expects U.S. natural gas output to rise to fresh records in 2026–27, while domestic consumption is projected to decline modestly. LNG exports are forecast to increase steadily, offering some medium-term demand support. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.57% alongside lower prices. Support is seen at Rs272.4, with a break opening the downside toward Rs264.3. Resistance stands at Rs291.2, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs301.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.3-301.9.

* Natural gas dropped after storage data showed a much smaller withdrawal than expected.

* Adding pressure, flows to LNG export plants slipped in recent days, reducing a key source of demand for US gas.

* US energy firms withdrew 71 bcf of natural gas from storage, well below market expectations for a 90 bcf draw.

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.45% lower at Rs1,289.5, pressured by growing concerns over demand prospects in China following weak macro data and the absence of benchmark interest rate cuts. Sentiment was weighed down as China’s new bank lending in 2025 slumped to a seven-year low, underscoring subdued borrowing appetite amid a prolonged property sector downturn. Adding to near-term pressure, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 18.3% from last week, reaching an eight-year high for this period, with Chinese smelters exporting surplus metal at discounts as importers resist elevated international premiums. However, downside appears limited due to tightening supply conditions outside China. Copper availability in LME registered warehouses fell sharply by 22% to the lowest level in six months, driven by continued stock movements to the U.S. ahead of potential tariff decisions, where premiums remain attractive. On the supply side, Chilean mine disruptions offered support, with Codelco output down 3% year-on-year in November and BHP’s Escondida production falling 12.8%, partially offset by marginal gains at Collahuasi. Looking ahead, expectations of policy support improved after China signaled a broad fiscal and financial package to boost domestic consumption. The market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.06% alongside falling prices. Support is seen at Rs1,282.3, with further downside toward Rs1,275. Resistance stands at Rs1,299.6, and a breakout above this could open the path toward Rs1,309.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1275-1309.6.

* Copper fell weighed down by rising concerns over demand prospects in China following downbeat data and a lack of benchmark rates cuts.

* However, downside seen limited amid mine disruptions, worries about supply deficits and the flow of metal to the United States.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 18.3% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.59% lower at Rs312.8, pressured by regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds from China. Sentiment weakened after Chinese regulators ordered exchanges, including the Shanghai Futures Exchange, to remove high-frequency trading servers, dampening speculative activity. Concerns over demand prospects persisted as China’s 2025 new bank lending slumped to a seven-year low, reflecting weak borrowing appetite amid a prolonged property sector downturn. Adding to the cautious outlook, China’s economic growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026–27, while zinc inventories at SHFE warehouses rose 3.3% from last week, reinforcing near-term supply overhang concerns. On the global front, the LME cash zinc contract traded at a $14/ton discount to the three-month forward, indicating soft nearby demand. Meanwhile, expectations are building that 2026 could mark a shift from deficit to surplus, after LME stocks surged by over 84,000 tons in November–December following earlier off-warrant depletion. China’s refined zinc output also rose 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 tons, supporting supply-side pressure. However, downside may be capped by upcoming mine maintenance in China. Several operations in central and southwest regions are scheduled for shutdowns, potentially trimming zinc concentrate output by around 700 tons of metal content and tightening raw material availability. The market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 7.26% alongside lower prices. Zinc has support at Rs310.9, and a break below could test Rs309. Resistance is seen at Rs315.8, with a move above opening the door toward Rs318.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 309-318.8.

* Zinc fell after Chinese regulators cracked down on high-frequency trading.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and maintain the same pace in 2027, a poll showed.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by 0.69% at Rs316.5, pressured mainly by a sharp rise in inventories and a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 29.2% from last Friday, signaling near-term supply comfort and weighing on sentiment. Adding to the pressure, easing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on aluminium reduced risk premiums, while inventories at three major Japanese ports increased 1.5% month-on-month to 316,800 metric tons by end-December. Despite the decline, downside appears limited due to an underlying global supply-demand imbalance. The global primary aluminium market recorded a deficit of 108,700 tons in October, taking the cumulative shortfall for the first ten months of the year to 955,500 tons, as consumption outpaced production. Investor sentiment also found support from expectations of policy easing in China, with the central bank signaling RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026 to sustain liquidity and growth. Structural supply risks persist as Chinese smelters’ overseas expansion faces higher energy costs and regulatory hurdles, while smelter disruptions linked to energy constraints, bauxite shortages, and geopolitical risks continue in regions such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. On the data front, global aluminium output edged up 0.5% year-on-year in November, while China’s aluminium production rose 2.5%. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 2.68%. Aluminium has support at Rs314.8, below which prices may test Rs313. Resistance is seen at Rs318.9, and a breakout could lead to Rs321.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 313-321.2.

* Aluminium dropped as inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 29.2% from last Friday.

* Prices also dropped on a stronger dollar and easing concerns over the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on the metal.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose to 316,800 metric tons at the end of December, up about 1.5% from previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged marginally higher, settling 0.02% up at Rs17,388, supported by arrivals remaining below normal and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment has improved as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced holdings, providing a firm base ahead of the arrival of the new crop. Yield prospects in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been impacted by unseasonal rains, which caused waterlogging and disease issues in parts of Marathwada, affecting nearly 15% of the area. Despite localized 15–20% yield losses, higher acreage is expected to partially offset production losses. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall supply increase. Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags, while other states together may contribute around 40 lakh bags. On the trade front, turmeric exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, while imports fell sharply by 48.05%, aiding domestic price strength. Nizamabad spot prices also rose 0.21% to Rs16,804.6. Technical Overview: The market is under short covering, with open interest down 0.9%. Support is seen at Rs17,022, below which prices may test Rs16,654. Resistance is placed at Rs17,638, and a breakout could lead to Rs17,886.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16654-17886.

* Turmeric seen supported as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16804.6 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.7% to Rs23,535, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. Export interest remains tepid, with current overseas business largely being met from available inventories. In the physical market, Unjha prices eased 0.64% to Rs22,534.55, reflecting weak buying after the conclusion of the retail season and continued caution among foreign buyers. Additionally, Diwali holidays across key markets impacted arrivals, contributing to subdued trade activity. However, the downside was limited due to delayed sowing and weather-related issues. In Gujarat, jeera sowing stands at 3,98,438 hectares, down 16.31% year-on-year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years as uneven rainfall has left fields unprepared. Low arrivals at Unjha and premium prices for good-quality cumin are lending underlying support. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement, though it remains price-sensitive. On the supply front, production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat and Rajasthan output seen at 42–45 lakh and 48–50 lakh bags, respectively. Globally, reduced production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan offers some support, though weak export demand from India caps upside. Exports during April–October 2025 fell 13.21% year-on-year.  The market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 6.22%. Support is seen at Rs23,380, with further downside to Rs23,220. Resistance is placed at Rs23,770, and a move above could test Rs24,000.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23220-24000.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476,097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22534.55 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.

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