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Gold

Gold yesterday settled lower by 0.23% at 1,21,232 as easing expectations of another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and reduced safe-haven demand amid improving U.S.–China trade relations weighed on prices. The announcement of a trade truce, featuring a one-year deal on rare earths and critical minerals, coupled with tariff adjustments, strengthened the dollar and pressured bullion. However, downside remained limited due to continued strong central bank buying, which has provided consistent support to the market in recent months. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased around 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, marking a 28% increase from the previous quarter. Kazakhstan led the buying, while Brazil made its first gold purchase in over four years. Overall, global gold demand surged 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons in Q3 — the highest quarterly level on record — driven by a 17% jump in bar and coin investment demand and a massive 134% surge in ETF inflows. These gains offset a 23% drop in jewellery fabrication, as high prices curbed retail purchases. On the supply side, recycling rose 6% and mine output grew 2%, pushing total quarterly supply to record highs. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell marginally by 0.05% to 13,019 while prices dropped by 276. Gold is getting support at 1,20,465, and a break below could test 1,19,700, while resistance is seen at 1,22,160; a move above may take prices to 1,23,090.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 119700-123090.

* Gold dropped as diminishing expectations of another Fed rate cut combined with easing trade tensions

* Global central banks purchased about 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing an earlier slowdown.

* Morgan Stanley said that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled lower by 0.37% at 1,48,287 as fading expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and optimism around a U.S.–China trade truce pressured the precious metal. The two countries agreed on a one-year deal covering rare earths and critical minerals, with tariff adjustments and agricultural purchase commitments, though uncertainty remains over its durability. Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan opposing additional cuts due to persistent inflation and a balanced labor market, strengthened the dollar and reduced appeal for silver. Meanwhile, liquidity in the London silver market improved as large metal shipments from the U.S. and China eased recent tightness. According to the LBMA, London vaults held 24,581 tons of silver valued at $36.5 billion by end-September. Silver exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings rose sharply, with net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025 pushing total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces — just 7% below the 2021 record high. Retail investment trends showed strength in India, up 7% year-on-year, while Europe’s recovery continued from a lower base. The Silver Institute projected the global silver deficit to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year due to slightly lower demand and higher supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 1.09% to 19,814 while prices fell 553. Silver has support at 1,47,190, below which it may test 1,46,095, while resistance is seen at 1,49,690, with a potential rise to 1,51,095 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 146095-151095.

* Silver dropped pressured by fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a US-China trade deal.

* The U.S. central bank should not have cut interest rates and should not do so again in December, Fed’s Logan said.

* Fed Chair Powell cautioned that another cut in December is not guaranteed, kept the dollar strong.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.58% at 5,422 as renewed concerns over potential military escalation in Venezuela temporarily outweighed fears of oversupply in the global market. OPEC+ members are expected to confirm a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December as part of efforts to regain market share, aligning with rising output from U.S. and North Sea producers. Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed Saudi Arabia’s crude exports climbing to a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day in August, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported record output of 13.6 million bpd last week. In the U.S., crude inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels in the week ending October 24, far exceeding market expectations, while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks fell by 5.941 million and 3.362 million barrels respectively. However, Cushing, Oklahoma inventories rose by 1.334 million barrels — the biggest increase since August. OPEC, in its latest monthly report, maintained steady global demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026 but highlighted that the oil market may face a smaller deficit next year as output rises. OPEC+ production increased by 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd, implying only a minor deficit of 50,000 bpd if current rates persist. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying as open interest surged 4.01% to 14,867 while prices rose 31. Support is seen at 5,354, below which it may test 5,287, while resistance is at 5,472, with potential to rise toward 5,523.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5287-5523.

* Crude oil gains as concerns of military escalation in Venezuela momentarily outweighed the view of an oversupplied energy market.

* OPEC+ nations are set to confirm an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in the cartel's output for December.

* Crude exports from top exporter Saudi Arabia hit a six-month high of 6.407 million bpd in August.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled higher by 4.68% at 364.9 as stronger heating demand expectations combined with robust LNG exports supported prices. Colder weather forecasts across the U.S. ahead of winter lifted gas-intensive heating requirements, while steady global demand for LNG from Europe and Asia added further momentum. Average gas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export terminals hit a record 16.5 billion cubic feet per day in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September, signaling strong export activity. The increase comes as Europe continues to replace Russian gas imports amid lower inventories, and the U.S. administration pushes energy trade agreements with Asian nations. Despite rising exports, domestic production stayed high at 107 bcfd in October, with underground storage levels continuing to build. The latest data showed U.S. natural gas stocks rising by 74 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 27, exceeding market expectations of a 71 bcf increase, bringing total inventories to 3,853 bcf—0.8% higher than last year and 4.6% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production reaching 107.1 bcfd and consumption at 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also set to rise to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.02% to 18,115 while prices gained 16.3. Support is at 354.9, below which prices could test 345, while resistance is at 371.8, with a potential move toward 378.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 345-378.8.

* Natural gas rose as higher heating demand in the near term met the outlook of ample LNG exports to Europe and Asia.

* Expectations of colder weather in the US ahead of the winter supported demand for gas-intensive heating.

* The average flow of gas to the eight big US LNG export plants were at 16.5 bcfd in October, well above the 15.7 bcfd from the previous month.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled slightly lower by 0.09% at 1010.85 as the U.S. Federal Reserve tempered expectations for further rate cuts, boosting the dollar and pressuring base metals. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that another rate cut in December was not a “foregone conclusion,” reducing hopes for immediate policy easing. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded key trade discussions, with the U.S. agreeing to halve fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, while China pledged to pause rare earth export restrictions and resume soybean purchases. On the supply side, copper remained supported by ongoing disruptions in Chile and Indonesia and weaker production from major miners such as Glencore and Anglo American. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a refined copper surplus of about 178,000 tonnes in 2025, turning into a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026, with global mine output expected to grow 1.4% and 2.3% respectively. Refined usage is forecast to increase by 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, while production may rise 3.4% in 2025 but slow to 0.9% in 2026. China’s copper concentrate imports fell 6.2% in September to 2.59 million tonnes due to reduced exports from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine following a mudslide and the expiry of its export license. However, year-to-date imports were up 7.7%. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling as open interest rose marginally by 0.01% to 9,469. Copper finds support at 1007.9, below which prices could test 1005, while resistance is at 1013.8 and 1016.8 above that.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1005-1016.8.

* Copper settled flat after the Federal Reserve tempered rate-cut expectations, helping to boost the US dollar.

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that investors need to rein in expectations for a December rate cut.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.83% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.10% at 300.6 as investors weighed falling SHFE inventories against a mixed global supply outlook. Zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped 5.27% from last week, signaling steady domestic demand. However, China’s factory activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in October, weighed by weak export orders and lingering tariff uncertainties. Optimism emerged from easing U.S.–China trade tensions, as both nations worked toward a potential trade deal to pause tariff escalations, while China's industrial profits grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years, hinting at improving industrial demand. Globally, refined zinc output is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. LME inventories dropped sharply by 85% from the start of the year to just 35,200 tonnes, the lowest since March 2023, intensifying supply shortage concerns. The cash-to-three-month premium on the LME stood at $170, reflecting strong near-term demand. Meanwhile, China’s zinc ingot stocks climbed to 162,000 tonnes in late October from 100,000 tonnes earlier this year, showing a stark divergence between tight overseas supplies and growing domestic availability. According to ILZSG, the global zinc market posted a surplus of 47,900 tonnes in August and 154,000 tonnes during January–August 2025, higher than last year’s surplus. Technically, the market witnessed short covering with open interest falling 4.75% to 2,608. Zinc finds support at 299.1 and 297.5, while resistance is seen at 302.5 and 304.3 on the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 297.5-304.3.

* Zinc prices gained as zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.27%.

* China's factory activity shrank for a seventh month in October, dragged down by a drop in new export orders.

* Inventories have plunged to extremely low levels in the global zinc market outside China.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled higher by 0.57% at 271.8, supported by tight near-term supply and firm long-term demand prospects. Prices gained as Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories dropped 3.89% from last week, indicating steady consumption. Supply concerns also mounted after Century Aluminium announced production cuts at its Iceland smelter due to an electrical failure, while Alcoa decided to permanently close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia amid deteriorating bauxite quality. These disruptions, along with China’s strict annual aluminium output cap of 45 million tonnes — expected to be breached this year — kept supply sentiment tight. On the global front, primary aluminium production rose 0.9% year-on-year in September to 6.08 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Meanwhile, aluminium stocks at Japan’s major ports increased 1.8% month-on-month to 341,300 tonnes. China’s unwrought aluminium exports stood at 521,000 tonnes in September, down slightly from August, while imports surged 35.4% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes, underscoring robust domestic demand. Beijing’s decision to cut its annual metals output growth target to 1.5% for 2025–2026 from 5% earlier also supported bullish sentiment by signaling tighter future supply. Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium outlook, forecasting prices to ease to $2,350 per tonne in Q4 2026 from $2,700 currently, anticipating slower demand growth ahead. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying with open interest rising 1.88% to 3,899. The metal finds support at 270 and 268.3, while resistance is seen at 272.9 and 274.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 268.3-274.1.

* Aluminium gained amid a backdrop of tight supply in the near term and bullish longer term demand.

* However upside seen limited amid a jump in LME inventories by a fifth, due to a 102,275-ton inflow to warehouses in Malaysia.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.89% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 1.10% at 14,900, pressured by an increase in acreage supported by favourable monsoon rains during the current sowing season. However, losses remained limited as excessive rainfall and humidity have adversely affected yields and storage conditions in key producing regions such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. In Erode, heavy rainfall led to disease outbreaks, while Nanded reported around 15% crop damage, tightening near-term supply sentiment. Stocks held by farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted, and no new arrivals were reported in recent sessions, further supporting price stability. On the production front, turmeric acreage for 2024–25 is estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous season. Despite higher acreage, weather-related damages and lower yields in some states may offset part of the supply increase. Meanwhile, strong buying interest continues for the new crop in Duggirala, where fresh arrivals fetch a premium for superior quality. Export demand remains firm—turmeric exports during April–August 2025 rose 3.31% year-on-year to 80,156.56 tonnes. In August alone, exports were up 7.27% annually and 13.71% month-on-month, highlighting steady global demand. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest declined by 0.64% to 11,720, while prices fell by 166. Turmeric now finds support at 14,720 and 14,542, whereas resistance is likely at 15,098 and 15,298. A break above 15,298 could trigger renewed buying momentum in the sessions ahead.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14542-15298.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14665.6 Rupees gained by 0.35 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled higher by 0.37% at 20,175 on selective buying amid thin arrivals, as trading activity remained subdued due to Diwali holidays across major markets. Support also emerged after the GST Council reduced the GST rate on spices to 5%, a move expected to boost FMCG exports and domestic consumption. However, upside remained capped due to weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season and persistent inactivity among foreign buyers. Comfortable supply conditions and sufficient carryover stocks continue to exert pressure on prices, with farmers reportedly holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, out of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends. Production for the 2024–25 season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to a reduction in sowing area. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, cumin production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan has been affected by adverse weather, though weak overseas demand from India has limited price gains. Jeera exports during April–August 2025 fell by 17.02% to 85,977.39 tonnes from 103,614.50 tonnes a year earlier, though August exports rose 3.24% year-on-year. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped by 1.02% to 2,913 while prices rose 75. Jeera finds support at 20,030 and 19,870, while resistance is seen at 20,320 and 20,450. A break above 20,450 could strengthen bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19870-20450.

* Jeera ended with gains on level buying amid low arrivals.

* Support seen after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* Jeera exports during Apr - Aug 2025, dropped by 17.02 percent at 85977.39 tonnes as compared to Apr - Aug 2024.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19808.5 Rupees dropped by -0.51 percent.

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