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Evening power demand hit 224.6GW (7% YoY) at 7:00 PM yesterday (10 Mar 2026)—the highestever recorded for March. During these non-solar hours, supply was supported by RE (wind) /Hydro/Gas/Nuclear/Coal operating at utilisation of must-run/67%/28%/87%/95%. Under similar circumstances in 2025, the government had implemented Section-11 for both imported coal-fired power plants and gas-fired power plants. With deficits anticipated in gas and hydro, we expect higher PLFs for thermal utilities and the coal value chain. Accordingly, our updated top utility picks’ pecking order for this summer is: Adani Power >Tata Power >NTPC >Adani Green > Coal India >JSW Energy.

* First sign of traction in power demand: Power demand during 10 Mar’26 touched 238GW (flat YoY) at 10:30 AM (solar hours) and 224.6GW (7% YoY) at 7:00 PM (non-solar hours). Evening peak was the highest-ever in March (refer to exhibits 1,2 and 3).

* Who generated: RE (wind)/Hydro/Gas/Nuclear/Coal contributed 10.7/ 26.5/ 2.5/ 5.8/ 179.2GW to meet 224.6GW of demand, indicating capacity utilisation of must-run/67%/28%/87%/95% .

* Reference from recent past: Evening peak demand on 22 April 2025 was 222GW, which was met by 6.4/26.6/10/6.3/172.9GW of RE (wind)/Hydro/Gas/Nuclear/Coal with capacity utilisation of must-run/70%/76%/83%/92%. As demand picked up further (spiking to 237GW on 9 Jun’25), government implemented Section-11 w.e.f. 1 May’25 for imported coal-fired (ICB) power plants and w.e.f. 16 May’25 for gas-fired power plants, mandating power plants to operate at optimum capacity.

* Message from the frequency profile: The frequency profile of 10 Mar’26 (multiple sharp dips in frequency, touching close to 49.82–49.85Hz) also indicates a sharp increase in demand after sunset – 17:00–18:30 – but lagged supply response (ramp-up) from thermal/hydro. One of the lowest frequency points (49.82 Hz) occurred around 18:00–18:15, making the “duck curve neck.” Then, the system stabilised after 19:00, when frequency returned closer to 50Hz as thermal plants completed ramping up and hydro dispatch increased. Overall, the sorted frequency distribution (green curve) indicates periods of surplus generation during solar hours and periods of tight supply during non-solar hours (refer to exhibit 7).

* What lies ahead: Given the current geopolitical developments, we envisage higher probability of a scenario of persistently high LNG prices and intense summer (Thinking through plausible scenarios) leading to a spike in coal-fired generation to meet evening demand. As we discuss in Tactical ideas for summer, there is a high probability of a shortfall in hydro generation (exhibit 9) during the upcoming summer due to a deficit in winter rainfall and snow cover.Shortages in LNG supplies add to supply challenges, impacting gasfired generation (9GW capacity, currently online). Hence, we expect implementation of Section11 or some other mechanism to enable operationalisation of ICB along with continued higher utilisation (PLF) of existing thermal power plants.

* Tactical ideas for summer: We have analysed 16 stocks from our coverage spanning utilities and equipment manufacturers on a weighted scoring system. Therein, we assign situational weights to key variables including valuation, leverage, growth potential, upside, summer demand triggers, earnings quality, investor comfort and volatility. Each stock is then scored relative to its peers. With the situation evolving, we are revising our top five utility picks for this summer with a pecking order of: Adani Power >Tata Power >NTPC >Adani Green >Coal India >JSW Energy. (For more, refer to our latest research Tactical ideas for summer.)

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