U.S. Oilseed Production Declines Amid Soybean Yield Drops by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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The U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is estimated at 128.5 million tons, a decline of 2.7 million tons from the previous forecast, driven by reduced soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, with yield dropping by 1 bushel per acre. Ending stocks are reduced to 380 million bushels due to lower production and increased exports. Globally, oilseed production is down by 0.3 million tons, attributed to declines in India, Russia, and Uruguay, though offset by gains in China and Australia. Despite a rise in global soybean crush, ending stocks have decreased due to adjustments in the U.S. and Brazil.
Key Highlights
* U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is down to 128.5 million tons.
* Soybean yield drops to 50.7 bushels per acre, cutting production.
* Ending stocks lowered by 90 million bushels to 380 million.
* Global oilseed production declines, driven by lower rapeseed output.
* Global soybean crush rises to 349.3 million tons amid strong demand.
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 128.5 million tons, marking a decrease of 2.7 million tons compared to the previous report. This drop is primarily due to reductions in soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops, although cottonseed production shows an increase. Soybean production is now estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, with a lower yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. Consequently, ending stocks have been reduced to 380 million bushels, reflecting a tightening supply amid stable prices.
Despite lower production, the U.S. season-average soybean price remains unchanged at $10.20 per bushel, with soybean oil prices holding steady at 43 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices, however, have increased to $310 per short ton due to strong export demand. Adjustments in the soybean oil balance sheet reveal higher exports and reduced use for biofuel.
Globally, oilseed production has declined by 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million tons. Key reductions in rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay were partly offset by gains in sunflowerseed production for Russia and cottonseed for China and Australia. Additionally, global soybean crush rose to 349.3 million tons, led by Brazil's robust soybean meal exports in the first quarter.
Finally
The U.S. and global oilseed sectors face a challenging 2024/25, with declining stocks and mixed price trends driven by lower production and robust demand.
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