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Gold

Gold settled down 0.71% at Rs149,316, extending selling pressure despite weaker-than-expected US jobs data, as markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the latest labor-market data indicate stability, while persistent inflation remains the Fed’s larger policy concern, keeping monetary policy uncertainty elevated. HSBC lowered its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,490 per ounce from $4,560, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices, while its 2027 forecast was reduced to $4,825. In contrast, Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400, arguing that tighter monetary policy may slow gold’s near-term appreciation but is unlikely to derail the longer-term rally, with continued central-bank diversification remaining a key structural support. South Korea’s central bank plans to begin purchasing gold from domestic producers in December, with around 1 tonne potentially available, while it held 104.4 tonnes of gold at end-June, equivalent to 3.1% of total reserves. Physical demand across Asian markets improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers. Indian demand could strengthen ahead of Dussehra and Diwali, while Chinese gold traded at premiums of $5–10 per ounce. London vault holdings rose 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes by end-July, valued at around $1.2 trillion. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 2.3% to 16,322 while prices declined Rs1,074, indicating additional participation on the bearish side. The market is finding support at Rs148,385, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs147,445. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs150,730, and a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs152,135.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147445-152135.

* Gold dropped even as weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that Fed may keep interest rates unchanged

* Fed’s Goolsbee said that he feels the labor market is steady and that too-high inflation remains the Fed's bigger policy priority.

* COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 6,916 contracts to 124,418.

Silver

Silver settled marginally higher by 0.09% at Rs226,087 as weaker-than-expected US employment data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. US payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September against expectations of 90,000, while August gains were revised down to 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021. Markets now see nearly an 80% probability of unchanged Fed policy this month, while December hike expectations remain around 69%. However, elevated Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield near its highest level since 2002, continued to limit upside in precious metals. Fed officials including Michael Barr, Beth Hammack and John Williams maintained a cautious stance on inflation and indicated that further rate hikes could remain necessary. COMEX silver speculators reduced net long positions by 5,278 contracts to 7,738 for the week ending September 29. London silver vault holdings rose 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with the 2026 deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025 despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%. Global supply is forecast to decline 2%, supporting the longer-term market balance. Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest declined 0.81% to 16,450 while prices gained Rs210, indicating some fresh buying after recent weakness. The market is currently finding support at Rs224,895, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs223,700. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs227,990, and a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs229,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 223700-229890.

* Silver rose as weak US jobs data eases Fed hike bets

* September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k vs 90k expected

* US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled down 2.77% at Rs8,669 as signs of increasing global supply outweighed persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves while maintaining energy exports, adding to expectations of improved near-term availability. Persian Gulf crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of seven days during the final week of September despite disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. OPEC+ agreed to keep November production targets unchanged, indicating that further policy adjustments are unlikely until next year, although Gulf producers continue to pump below targets due to export disruptions. US crude inventories increased by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels, against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks rose 553,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 554,000 barrels per day, with utilization falling 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels, while net US crude imports decreased by 468,000 barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that delayed resolution of the Iran conflict could keep Middle East supply flows disrupted into 2027. The IEA also highlighted shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity as risks for tighter markets. Meanwhile, WTI speculative net long positions declined by 17,317 contracts to 131,150, reflecting reduced bullish exposure. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation as open interest declined sharply by 11.09% to 9,967 while prices fell Rs247. The market is now finding support at Rs8,577, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs8,485. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,784, while a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs8,899.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8485-8899.

* Crude oil dropped as signs of increasing global supply outweighed concerns over persistent geopolitical risks.

* G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves.

* OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady

Natural gas

Natural gas settled up 2.64% at Rs295.1, supported by expectations of stronger demand over the next two weeks, lower daily production due to a pipeline issue in Kentucky, and rising flows toward liquefied natural gas export facilities. The expected return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas further strengthened the demand outlook. Average US Lower 48 gas output declined to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day in October from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, while daily production was expected to fall to a four-month low of 109.3 bcfd. However, US production reached an all-time monthly record in July at 137 bcfd in gross withdrawals, driven mainly by increased output from new wells in Texas and New Mexico. US natural gas inventories increased by 64 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 25, matching expectations, taking total stocks to 3.415 trillion cubic feet, 3.9% below year-ago levels but 2.4% above the five-year average. The market expects another 79 bcf injection for the following week, compared with a five-year average build of 96 bcf. EIA forecasts US dry gas production to rise to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd and 94.8 bcfd respectively. LNG exports are expected to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Speculative net short positions increased by 53,998 contracts to 81,156, highlighting substantial bearish positioning. Technically, natural gas is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 23.26% to 41,559 while prices gained Rs7.6. The market is now finding support at Rs291.2, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs287.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs298.1, while a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs301.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 287.3-301.1.

* Natural gas gained on forecasts for more demand and a decline in daily output due to a pipeline problem in Kentucky.

* Freeport restart expectations lifted LNG feedgas toward a one-week high of 17.6 bcfd

* Speculative net short positions in natural gas across the four major markets on NYMEX and ICE increased by 53,998 contracts

Copper

Copper settled up 0.78% at Rs1,410.5 as fading expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar. Supply concerns strengthened the bullish tone after Chilean copper production fell 12.8% year-on-year in August to 369,500 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2011, while workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted to strike and supervisors at Escondida rejected a collective contract offer, raising risks of further supply disruptions. China’s copper-intensive manufacturing activity improved in September, with the official PMI rising to 50.1 from 49.8 and the private RatingDog PMI reaching a five-month high of 52.1. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks declined 17.8% week-on-week to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024, highlighting firm pre-holiday demand. The Yangshan import premium increased to $119 per tonne, although China’s domestic physical premium eased to 1,050 yuan. Bank of America raised its 2031 copper price forecast by 20% to $13,577 per tonne, citing constrained supply outside the United States and persistent tightness in China. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, although the January-July period remained in a 32,000-tonne surplus. July refined output stood at 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. COMEX copper speculators reduced net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709. Technically, copper is under short covering as open interest declined 0.32% to 8,292 while prices gained Rs10.9. The market is finding support at Rs1,402.6, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs1,394.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,415.1, while a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs1,419.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1394.8-1419.8.

* Copper rose as fading prospects for a Fed rate hike outweighed pressure from a strong dollar.

* BofA raises long-term copper forecast on tightening supply outlook

* COMEX copper speculators lowered their net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709.

Zinc

Zinc settled up 0.67% at Rs413.35, supported by tightening supply conditions and disruptions across major producing regions, although expectations of higher Chinese export deliveries onto the LME limited the upside. Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, highlighting ongoing pressure across the smelting sector, while Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year-on-year. China’s industrial profits rose 15.7% in the first eight months, slowing from 17.6% in January-July as subdued domestic demand offset gains in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. Chinese factory activity returned to growth in September, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 from 49.8, while the private RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5. China’s zinc output declined 1.8% year-on-year in August to 639,000 tonnes, marking the first annual contraction in nearly a year and the weakest performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories fell 1.8% from the previous week, providing additional support. However, the global refined zinc market recorded a modest surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, with demand rising 0.56% to 1.177 million tonnes and refined supply increasing 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global zinc mine production declined for a fifth consecutive month, falling 8% year-on-year to around 995,000 tonnes, marking the steepest contraction since May 2024. China remained the largest refined zinc producer with output around 629,000 tonnes. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 10.45% to 2,390 while prices gained Rs2.75. The market is finding support at Rs408.6, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs403.9. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs416.5, while a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs419.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 403.9-419.7.

* Zinc gained supported by tightening supply and disruptions across major producing regions.

* Smelter Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations.

* Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 metric tons of refined zinc in second half of the 2026 fiscal year, up 32% from a year ago.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled up 0.56% at Rs338.5, supported by an improving demand outlook as weaker US jobs data reduced expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets now price an 18% probability of a rate hike this month, down sharply from 64% a week earlier, improving sentiment across industrial metals. However, gains remained limited by easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions, expectations of new Indonesian capacity, a stronger dollar and elevated global bond yields. Macquarie lowered its 2026 global aluminium deficit forecast to 820,000 tonnes from 940,000 tonnes previously, citing faster-than-expected Middle East smelter restarts, while Chinese downstream restocking ahead of the public holiday kept the near-term market relatively tight. The firm expects the market to shift into a 410,000-tonne surplus in 2027. EGA has restarted a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter, while Rio Tinto secured continued operations at Bell Bay through 2031. Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year in August amid weak domestic demand and elevated inventories, while Japanese port stocks increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes. Alcoa cut 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Global refined aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, with GCC output falling 43% to 299,000 tonnes, while China increased production 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. SHFE stocks declined by 57,244 tonnes and LME inventories fell by 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter availability. Chinese unwrought aluminium and semi-finished exports reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying as open interest rose 14.26% to 4,608 while prices gained Rs1.9. Support is placed at Rs334.9, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs331.2, while resistance is seen at Rs340.6 and a decisive move above it could push prices toward Rs342.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 331.2-342.6.

* Aluminium rose supported by an improving demand outlook after cooling interest rate expectations.

* However upside seen limited amid easing worries about supply from Gulf and expectations of new production capacity in Indonesia.

* Macquarie downgraded their forecast for this year's deficit in global aluminium market to 820,000 tons, down 120,000 tons from June estimate.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply higher by 3.72% at Rs22,290, supported by severe drought conditions in Karnataka that have raised concerns over production and future supplies. A joint drought survey by the Karnataka State Department of Horticulture, Revenue Department and KSDMA estimated turmeric crop losses at 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of around 18,000–20,000 hectares. Market sentiment was further strengthened by lower carryforward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, leaving a thinner availability buffer. Concerns over deficient rainfall during early crop development and the potential El Nino impact also supported prices, while lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions added to supply worries. However, improving monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations continue to affect non-IPM compliant lots, while rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmers selling during the peak harvest period have created some pressure, although stockist activity remains steady and cautious. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026, but cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Exports to Turkey, Sri Lanka and Nigeria recorded substantial gains, supporting overall demand. Nizamabad spot prices ended at Rs21,267.8, gaining 2.6%. Technically, turmeric is under short covering as open interest declined 2.4% to 37,640 while prices gained Rs800. Support is placed at Rs21,742, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs21,196. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs22,742, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs23,196.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21196-23196.

* Turmeric prices rallied as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected turmeric cultivation, raising concerns over crop.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21267.8 Rupees gained by 2.6 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled sharply higher by 3.24% at Rs23,565, supported by rapid tightening in the availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals across major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing selective export support. However, upside remains limited as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks for upcoming-season cash requirements, while favorable weather accelerated harvesting and drying. NCDEX warehouse stocks have continued to build, reducing immediate procurement urgency, and large spice grinders are maintaining hand-to-mouth buying rather than undertaking aggressive forward coverage. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic and export demand remains mixed, with India’s jeera exports declining 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, highlighting weakness in a major destination. Domestic production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season against 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Overseas production estimates also remain important, with China expected at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, Syria at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, Turkey at 10,000–11,000 tonnes and Afghanistan at 10,000–12,000 tonnes. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs23,284.55, gaining 0.57%. Technically, jeera is under short covering as open interest declined 5.74% to 4,533 while prices gained Rs740. Support is placed at Rs23,110, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs22,660. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs23,890, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs24,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22660-24220.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23284.55 Rupees gained by 0.57 percent.

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