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Nifty

Nifty somehow managed to hold above its 200-week EMA in last two consecutive sessions. However, the emergence of a Bullish Spike candlestick formation on the daily chart, accompanied by a progressing Price-RSI positive divergence, indicates that selling momentum may be approaching exhaustion and leaves room for a technical pullback. The key support zone remains 22400–22000. On the weekly timeframe, a Bearish Belt Hold continues to define resistance around 22800, while the weekly ADX approaching its 25 threshold warrants caution, as strengthening trend intensity could restrict the sustainability of any rebound. Hence, 22600 remains the immediate reclaim level, followed by 22800; a sustained move above 22800 would improve the recovery prospects going forward. Conversely, a decisive break below 22300 could accelerate the decline towards 22000 or even lower levels. With crude prices, global yields and the RBI policy decision likely to influence sentiment, volatility may remain elevated. Traders should avoid aggressive shorts at oversold levels, but treat any rebound as a counter-trend move until 22800 is decisively reclaimed. Stock-specific opportunities with strict risk management remain preferable.

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