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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 1.11% at 147,378, supported by weaker-than-expected US labor market data, which reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, well below market expectations of 110,000 and marking the weakest monthly job growth in four months. Although the unemployment rate eased to 4.2% from 4.3%, the decline was mainly driven by a reduction in labor force participation. Following the employment report, the probability of a September Fed rate hike fell to around 50%, while the US dollar recorded its sharpest weekly decline since April, providing additional support to bullion prices. Fundamentally, central bank demand remained supportive, with global central banks adding a net 41 metric tons of gold reserves during May. In the physical market, demand in India softened as higher domestic prices discouraged fresh purchases, while buying interest in China improved modestly with narrower discounts to international prices. London vault holdings increased marginally to 9,392 tonnes, reflecting stable institutional holdings. Meanwhile, the global gold ETF market witnessed net outflows of US$2 billion during May, led by selling in Asia and North America, although year-to-date ETF inflows remain firmly positive at nearly US$17 billion, indicating that longer-term investment demand continues to stay healthy. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 0.51% alongside a gain of Rs 1,620 in prices, indicating fresh long positions. Gold is expected to find immediate support near 146,720, followed by 146,060, while resistance is placed at 148,055. A sustained move above this level could extend the rally towards 148,730.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146060-148730.

*  Gold climbed as weak US jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

*  The probability of a hike dropped to 50%, down from 66% before the report.

*  Central banks also contributed to demand, adding a net 41 metric tons of gold to reserves in May – WGC

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 1.76% at 237,410, supported by weaker-than-expected US labor market data that reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, significantly below the market forecast of 110,000 and marking the weakest job growth in four months. Following the data, the probability of a September Fed rate hike declined to 50% from 66%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A broad decline in the US dollar, which recorded its largest weekly fall since April, further strengthened precious metals. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation expectations continue to moderate while reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to price stability. Meanwhile, Mary Daly noted that monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, although strong AI-related investment and a stable labor market make the policy outlook uncertain. Fundamentally, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, indicating stable institutional inventories. In contrast, India’s silver imports dropped sharply by 87% year-on-year in value and 94% in volume to just 33 metric tons, the lowest level since February 2023, following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties aimed at reducing precious metals imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 3.07% while prices advanced by Rs 4,106, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 236,315, followed by 235,215, while resistance is seen at 238,695. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further gains towards 239,975.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235215-239975.

* Silver rose as weaker-than-expected US jobs data dampened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

* US nonfarm payrolls grew by only 57,000 in June, the smallest increase in four months and well below the 110,000 forecast.

* US dollar also weakened, heading for its biggest weekly drop since April, which further boosted precious metals.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 0.43% higher at 6,568, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz despite signs of improving Gulf oil exports. Mixed statements from the United States and Iran regarding the management of the strategic shipping route kept market sentiment cautious. However, regional oil flows continued to recover as Saudi Arabia restored crude exports to nearly 90% of pre-war levels, while the UAE successfully increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative pipeline routes. Gulf crude exports rose by more than 3 million barrels in June from the previous month to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volumes remained below pre-war levels. Kuwait also increased production sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day, while Saudi Aramco accelerated spot sales to Asian buyers to improve export flows. On the supply side, US crude inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels during the latest reporting week, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also posted a larger-than-expected decline, reflecting firm fuel demand, while distillate inventories unexpectedly increased. Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub rose for the first time in ten weeks, refinery utilization improved, and net US crude imports increased, highlighting a gradual normalization in supply conditions. Meanwhile, OPEC production in May dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades, largely due to disruptions in Iranian exports and reduced Gulf shipments despite planned OPEC+ production increases. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.79% while prices gained Rs 28. Immediate support is seen at 6,507, followed by 6,446, while resistance is placed at 6,628. A sustained breakout above this level could push prices towards 6,688.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6446-6688.

* Crude oil gains after the U.S. and Iran expressed contradictory remarks over the management of the Strait of Hormuz.

* Kuwait's oil production rose sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, from 580,000 bpd in May.

* Saudi Aramco shifts to spot sales in Asia

Natural gas

Natural Gas prices settled 1.44% higher at 310.4, supported by stronger flows to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities and expectations of record electricity demand amid warmer-than-normal weather forecasts across much of the United States. Although temperature forecasts have moderated slightly, above-normal heat through mid-July is expected to sustain cooling demand and support natural gas consumption. According to LSEG, average US Lower 48 gas production eased to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early July from 110 bcfd in June, while total demand, including exports, is projected to increase from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. LNG export flows also improved to 17.8 bcfd in July, approaching the record monthly average of 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. According to the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, working gas in underground storage increased by 87 Bcf during the week ended June 26, taking total inventories to 2,922 Bcf. Storage levels remain 23 Bcf below last year's level but stand 175 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating an adequately supplied market. The EIA also maintained an optimistic long-term outlook, forecasting US dry gas production to rise to a record 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption and LNG exports are also expected to reach new highs over the next two years, reflecting strong structural demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 6.78% while prices advanced by Rs 4.4. Immediate support is seen at 306.2, followed by 302.1, while resistance is placed at 313.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 316.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 302.1-316.1.

* Natural gas climbed on rising flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for record power demand in some parts of the country.

* Energy firms injected a larger-than-expected 87 billion cubic feet of gas into storage - EIA

* Meteorologists forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures nationwide through July 16.

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.77% higher at 1,284.8, supported by a weaker US dollar, declining exchange inventories, and improving demand indicators from China. Stocks held in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 9.6% during the week, while China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to $74 per ton, the highest level since mid-April, reflecting stronger import demand. China’s manufacturing sector also expanded for a seventh consecutive month in June, reinforcing optimism over industrial metal consumption. On the supply side, Chile’s copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May, although China’s refined copper output increased 2.2% to 1.26 million metric tons, highlighting resilient domestic production. Fundamentally, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 145,000 metric ton global refined copper deficit in April, compared with a surplus in March, as worldwide consumption exceeded production. China’s unwrought copper imports also rose 3.2% year-on-year in April, reaching a seven-month high despite record domestic output, supported by robust investment in high-voltage power infrastructure. Looking ahead, major financial institutions remain constructive on copper. Jefferies expects a sustained global supply deficit through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing weaker mine supply growth, continued demand strength, and tighter global market balances. Delays in production ramp-ups at major mines, including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, are expected to keep supply constrained over the coming years. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.79% while prices gained Rs 9.8. Immediate support is seen at 1,279.5, followed by 1,274.3, while resistance is placed at 1,289.7. A sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards 1,294.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1274.3-1294.7.

* Copper gained supported by a weaker dollar and continuing outflows from stocks of the LME and SHFE.

* PMI data showed factory activity in China grew for a seventh straight month in June.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 9.6% from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.92% higher at 366.65, supported by improving global manufacturing activity and tightening near-term supply conditions. Manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States indicated continued expansion despite elevated input costs, reinforcing expectations for steady industrial metals demand. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.2% during the week, reflecting improving physical demand. Meanwhile, US manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June, although the pace of growth moderated slightly from May’s four-year high. On the supply side, market sentiment remained supported by operational disruptions at several key producers. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continued to operate at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations after a fire-related shutdown. Concerns also persist over lower production at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following earlier seismic activity. Although China’s zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) continues to project a 19,000-ton refined zinc deficit for the year. Latest ILZSG data also showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 metric tons in March, indicating improving market fundamentals. Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus in 2026 but forecasts supply outside China to tighten significantly in 2027 and 2028 as mine supply growth slows while demand continues to expand steadily. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 6.7% alongside a Rs 6.9 increase in prices, indicating new long positions. Immediate support is seen at 363.1, followed by 359.5, while resistance is placed at 368.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 370.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 359.5-370.5.

* Zinc gained supported by signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* Data released by China, Europe, and the U.S. showed manufacturing strength despite higher input prices.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.2% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.62% higher at 330.25, supported by a weaker US dollar and easing expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike following softer US labour market data. Lower interest rate expectations improved sentiment across industrial metals, offsetting concerns over improving global aluminium supply. Japan’s aluminium buyers agreed to pay premiums of $395 per ton for July-September shipments, up 12-13% from the previous quarter, highlighting continued tightness in the physical market despite expectations of seasonal easing during July and August before demand recovers in September. On the supply side, Emirates Global Aluminium announced a faster-than-expected restoration of production at its Al Taweelah facility, although full output is unlikely to return for up to a year. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro’s Slovalco joint venture secured a long-term power agreement with the Slovak government, paving the way for the restart of 75,000 metric tons of annual smelting capacity from the fourth quarter of 2026. China continued to expand production, with aluminium output rising 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million metric tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 1.4%, indicating healthy physical demand. Global primary aluminium production, however, fell 1.7% year-on-year in May. Goldman Sachs expects a 720,000-ton global aluminium deficit in 2026, citing prolonged supply disruptions in West Asia, while China’s aluminium imports and exports continued to strengthen, reflecting resilient trade activity. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing by 19.75% alongside a Rs 2.05 rise in prices, indicating new long positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 327.9, followed by 325.6, while resistance is seen at 333.5. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards 336.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.6-336.8.

* Aluminium rose supported by a weaker dollar and easing concerns over an imminent U.S. interest rate hike.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.4% from last Friday.

* Citi sees aluminium prices bottoming over coming month, $3,300 – 3,500/t during Sept – Dec

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally higher by 0.06% at 17,562, recovering through short covering after recent declines driven by increased farmer selling during the peak harvest season. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis continued to outpace immediate buying interest, putting pressure on prices as farmers accelerated stock liquidation. Large inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, also kept buyers cautious. In addition, reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals forced sellers to accept lower prices, while export orders from Europe and the United States remained relatively subdued during the week. Fundamentally, the market continues to receive support from tightening carry-forward stocks, which are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags a year earlier. Demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers has remained firm, while steady procurement of finger-variety turmeric by Bangladesh has supported sentiment in Andhra Pradesh markets. The southwest monsoon has progressed well across southern India, improving prospects for the 2026-27 crop, with above-normal rainfall forecasts expected to encourage higher acreage following last season’s attractive prices. India’s turmeric exports remained broadly stable during April 2026, rising 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan helped offset lower shipments to the UAE and the United States, reflecting healthy diversification in export demand. Meanwhile, spot prices in Nizamabad increased by 1.05%, indicating resilient domestic market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 1.14% alongside a Rs 10 price gain. Immediate support is placed at 17,368, followed by 17,176, while resistance is seen at 17,686. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 17,812.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17176-17812.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16534.7 Rupees gained by 1.05 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.24% lower at 20,430, as traders booked profits after the recent rally despite continued concerns over tightening supplies of premium-quality export-grade seeds. Daily arrivals at major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have declined following the end of the peak harvest season, allowing stockists to strengthen their pricing power. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms across key producing regions adversely affected seed quality by increasing moisture content, resulting in a wider price gap between average-grade and premium export-quality cumin. Farmers and large stockists have also adopted a cautious selling strategy, releasing stocks gradually rather than aggressively, which has tightened spot availability of superior-quality seeds. Fundamentally, domestic demand remains steady with processors maintaining hand-to-mouth purchases instead of building large inventories. Export demand continues to support market sentiment, particularly from Europe and North America, where buyers are actively seeking residue-compliant, high-quality lots. Expectations of renewed buying interest from China and reports of blight disease affecting crop quality in parts of Gujarat have also provided underlying support. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to around 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing area and adverse weather. Globally, lower production estimates from China due to unfavourable weather are expected to further tighten international supplies. India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp reduction in shipments to the UAE. However, exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.9% while prices fell Rs 50. Immediate support is placed at 20,360, followed by 20,290, while resistance is seen at 20,520. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 20,610.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20290-20610.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20502.95 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.

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