Turmeric trading range for the day is 16674-18570 - Kedia Advisory
Gold prices settled higher by 0.26% at Rs 135,804, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and strong safe-haven demand. Fresh warnings from former US President Donald Trump regarding potential strikes on Iran, alongside reports of US action against a Venezuelan loading facility, kept risk sentiment fragile. Gold has already surged nearly 70% in 2025, with the rally accelerating since late April following the announcement of broad US tariff measures. The uptrend continues to draw strength from ongoing geopolitical tensions, expectations of US interest rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, and rising inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting indicated that most policymakers would back rate cuts if inflation continues to ease, although divisions remain on the timing and scale of easing. On the demand front, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 101.5% month-on-month in November, while the People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a thirteenth consecutive month. Globally, central banks added 53 tonnes of gold in October, the strongest monthly increase since November 2024. Gold ETFs recorded their sixth straight month of inflows, led largely by Asia. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.2% to 15,753 alongside a Rs 357 price gain. Gold has immediate support at Rs 135,290, with a further downside risk toward Rs 134,780. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 136,100, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs136,400.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 134780-136400.
* Gold gained as persistent geopolitical uncertainty underpinned demand for the safe-haven metal.
* President Trump warned of further strikes on Iran if nuclear rebuilding continues
* Fed’s minutes, showed that most officials would support rate cuts if inflation continues to fall.
Silver
Silver prices edged marginally higher by 0.07% to settle at Rs 235,873, supported by ongoing supply constraints, robust industrial demand, and expectations of further US interest rate cuts. The metal has crossed multiple historic milestones this year, aided by its inclusion as a critical mineral in the US, persistently low inventories, and rising industrial and investment demand. Heightened geopolitical risks also lent support, as the US signaled potential further action against Iran and announced an operation targeting a drug-related facility in Venezuela. Despite bouts of volatility, silver remains on track for an exceptional annual gain of around 180%, marking one of its strongest performances since 1979. The rally has been underpinned by tight physical supply, sustained ETF inflows, central bank buying, and three US rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing in additional monetary easing in 2026. However, CME Group’s sharp increase in margin requirements for March 2026 silver futures highlights concerns over speculative excess following repeated record highs. On the supply side, Chinese silver stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade after record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October, while liquidity conditions in London remain tight. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.74% to 13,147 even as prices gained Rs 172. Silver has immediate support at Rs 233,510, with further downside toward Rs 231,150. Resistance is placed at Rs 238,570, and a sustained breakout above this level could propel prices toward Rs241,270.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 231150-241270.
* Silver gains supported by supply constraints, strong industrial demand, and bets on further U.S. interest rate cuts.
* Prices has surged more than 180% in 2025, dramatically outperforming gold and positioning 2025 as its strongest year on record.
* Silver crossed several historic milestones, buoyed by its designation as a critical mineral in the US.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.19% to settle at Rs 5,223, supported by fading prospects of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and persistent geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and South America. Supply disruptions in Venezuela, where oil wells are being shut due to a partial US blockade, also lent support. However, upside momentum remained capped as concerns over global oversupply and mixed US inventory data offset geopolitical risk premiums. US crude inventories excluding the SPR declined by 1.93 million barrels in the week ending December 26, significantly exceeding expectations. Despite this draw, overall commercial stocks remain comfortably above historical averages at 423 million barrels, underscoring a broadly oversupplied market. Adding to bearish undertones, gasoline and distillate inventories posted sharp builds, highlighting continued weakness in refined product demand. OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its pause on production increases at its upcoming meeting, reflecting mounting evidence of excess supply. While OPEC reported a modest rise in November output, both OPEC and the IEA continue to project relatively resilient demand growth into 2026, with the IEA marginally narrowing its surplus outlook due to lower expected supply growth. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 5% to 18,244 alongside a Rs 10 price gain. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs 5,206, with further downside seen near Rs 5,190. On the upside, resistance stands at Rs 5,234, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 5,246.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5190-5246.
* Crude oil gains due to the dimming possibilities of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and geopolitical tensions in Middle East.
* Venezuela began shutting oil wells due to a partial US blockade that has constrained exports and caused domestic storage tanks to fill.
* Supply of the five North Sea crude oil grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark will average about 575,000 bpd in February
Natural gas
Natural gas prices declined sharply by 2.31% to settle at Rs 329.5, pressured primarily by warmer weather forecasts for the first half of January, which reduced near-term heating demand expectations. While meteorologists still project colder conditions through mid-January, with Heating Degree Days rising above seasonal norms, the immediate outlook of milder temperatures weighed on sentiment and triggered profit-taking after recent gains. Fundamentally, demand indicators remain supportive. Record U.S. gas flows to LNG export terminals continued, with average deliveries to the eight major facilities rising to 18.5 bcfd in December, surpassing November’s record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-average storage withdrawal of 166 bcf for the week ending December 19, well above both last year’s draw and the five-year average. As a result, total gas inventories fell to 3,413 bcf, now slightly below both year-ago levels and the five-year average, reflecting tightening balances as winter demand picks up. Production, however, remains robust. LSEG estimates U.S. output climbed to a record 110.1 bcfd in December, while the EIA projects both production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025, limiting upside potential. From a technical perspective, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.86% to 25,286 alongside a Rs 7.8 price drop. Natural gas has key support at Rs 319.2, with further downside risk toward Rs 308.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 337.7, and a break above this level could test Rs 345.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 308.9-345.9.
* Natural gas prices dropped as weather forecasts turn warmer for the first half of January.
* Meteorologists forecast a drop in temperatures nationwide through January 13.
* Projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, would edge higher from 137.1 bcfd to 138 bcfd next week.
Copper
Copper prices continued their strong upward momentum, settling 0.54% higher at Rs1,292.5, as supply-side disruptions and expectations of structurally rising demand from the AI boom and global energy transition underpinned sentiment. Tightening physical availability was reflected in the Yangshan copper premium, which is ending the year near $51 per tonne after touching a three-month high of $55, signaling resilient buying interest despite elevated prices. Demand in China has remained firmer than earlier anticipated, with cumulative imports for January–November down only 3% year-on-year. On the supply front, Chilean copper output declined 7.18% year-on-year in November, while disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labor unrest risks in Chile and Peru have intensified concerns over mine supply. Additional uncertainty has emerged from renewed US tariff threats, which have driven refined copper flows toward US warehouses, tightening availability in traditional consuming regions. Although the ICSG reported a refined copper surplus of about 122,000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2025, apparent usage still rose 5.5%, underscoring robust underlying demand. Expectations of a 10% output cut by major Chinese smelters in 2026 further support a tighter outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.83% to 13,310 as prices gained Rs 7. Copper has immediate support at Rs 1,273.5, with a deeper downside at Rs 1,254.4. Resistance is seen at Rs 1,303.2, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,313.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1254.4-1313.8.
* Copper gains as supply concerns and prospects of surging demand from the AI boom and energy transition.
* The Yangshan copper premium is finishing the year at $51 a ton, after hitting a three-month high of $55 last week.
* Copper output in Chile, fell 7.18% year-on-year in November to 451,815 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged marginally higher by 0.13% to settle at Rs 308.05, supported by speculative buying amid concerns over tighter near-term supply. Market sentiment was buoyed by reports of routine maintenance shutdowns at zinc mines in central and southwest China, which are expected to reduce the number of production days and lower zinc concentrate output on a month-on-month basis. One mine in southwest China, having largely met its annual production target, is set to cut output by around 700 tonnes in metal content during the maintenance period. In addition, zinc inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 4.3% from December 26, lending further support to prices. However, upside momentum remained limited due to mixed demand and supply signals from China. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes in November, highlighting ample refined supply despite mine-side constraints. On the global front, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market posted a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in the first ten months of 2025, although the monthly deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October. Global refined zinc production is forecast to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025, potentially capping gains. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.15% to 5,212 alongside a Rs 0.4 price gain. Zinc has immediate support at Rs 307.3, with further downside seen near Rs 306.5. Resistance is placed at Rs 308.9, and a move above this level could open the way toward Rs 309.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 306.5-309.7.
* Zinc prices gained amid speculative buying on worries about tighter supply.
* Pressure also seen dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 4.3% from December 26.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.12% to settle at Rs 297.3, supported by growing concerns over constrained supply and structural limits on output growth. Sentiment was underpinned by China’s renewed emphasis on preventing overcapacity in metal production, as authorities seek to curb deflationary pressures across the manufacturing sector. With the country set to breach its annual output cap this year, smelters are expected to restrain production growth in 2026, tightening the medium-term supply outlook. As a result, Chinese producers have increasingly diverted capped supply to the domestic market, leading to a 9.2% year-on-year decline in aluminium exports in November. Globally, supply risks persist. Several smelters across Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia remain suspended due to high energy costs, equipment issues, bauxite sourcing challenges, and geopolitical risks. At the same time, Chinese efforts to expand capacity overseas, particularly in Indonesia, continue to face hurdles from elevated energy costs and regulatory uncertainties. While global primary aluminium output rose modestly by 0.5% year-on-year in November, aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 5.2% month-on-month, signaling tightening availability in key consuming regions. In contrast, inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses increased slightly by 1%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.95% to 4,396 alongside a Rs 0.35 price gain. Aluminium has support at Rs 295.1, with further downside toward Rs 292.7. Resistance is seen at Rs 298.9, and a break above this level could test Rs 300.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 292.7-300.3.
* Aluminium prices gained amid growing concerns of low supply.
* Global primary aluminium output in November rose 0.5% year on year to 6.086 million tonnes – IAI
* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.0% from December 26.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices surged sharply by 2.8% to settle at Rs 17,800, driven by below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment was further strengthened by reports that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced holdings, providing a firm base ahead of new-crop arrivals. Crop yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been impacted by unseasonal rains, tightening near-term availability. In the key Nizamabad spot market, prices also moved higher, ending at Rs 16,152.35, up 0.89%. However, upside may be capped by expectations of higher acreage in the current sowing season due to favourable rainfall. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Despite higher acreage, supply growth remains moderate as weather irregularities and disease pressure offset gains. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the overall increase. Export demand remains supportive, with April–October 2025 exports rising 2.05% year-on-year, while imports dropped sharply by 48%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest easing 0.2% to 14,780 alongside a sharp Rs 484 price gain. Turmeric has immediate support at Rs 17,236, with further downside seen near Rs16,674. Resistance is placed at Rs 18,184, and a sustained move above this level could propel prices toward Rs 18,570.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16674-18570.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.
*.... In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16152.35 Rupees gained by 0.89 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged higher by 0.31% to settle at Rs 22,405, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing, which continue to keep near-term supplies tight. In Gujarat, the key producing state, cumin sowing as of December 29 stood at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation. At the Unjha market, arrivals remain very low, and good-quality jeera continues to command premium prices. Logistical and weather challenges across India and the Middle East have further constrained supply, lending support to prices. However, upside remains capped due to comfortable carryover stocks and subdued export demand. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before the season ends, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Export demand from the Gulf and China has shown mild improvement but remains price-sensitive, while overall overseas buying activity is muted. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 declined 13.2% year-on-year, reflecting weak global demand despite supply disruptions in competing origins such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. In the Unjha spot market, prices eased 0.44% to Rs 22,079. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 7.06% to 4,110 alongside a Rs 70 price gain. Jeera has immediate support at 22,250, with further downside seen near Rs 22,090. Resistance is placed at Rs 22,600, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 22,790.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22090-22790.
* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22079 Rupees dropped by -0.44 percent.
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