Turmeric trading range for the day is 13256-13500. - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold edged higher, settling with a 0.24% gain at 1,00,624 as dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lifted sentiment. Powell indicated that while unemployment remains low, risks to the labor market are increasing and monetary policy is still restrictive, keeping the door open for a potential rate cut. Markets reacted swiftly, with futures nearly fully pricing in a 25 bps cut in September. Additionally, escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, including reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian power and energy facilities, reinforced gold’s safe-haven appeal. On the trade front, Swiss customs data showed gold exports were steady in July as higher shipments to the U.S. and India offset declines to Britain and China. Exports to the U.S. surged to 51 tons, the highest since March, while India received 13 tons compared to just 3 tons in June. However, exports to the UK fell to 30.5 tons from 83.8 tons and China’s intake dropped to 9.9 tons from 16.7 tons. Physical demand across Asian hubs remained mixed, with India seeing renewed buying ahead of the festival season while premiums in China and Southeast Asia held firm. Technically, fresh buying was seen with open interest rising 4.39% to 13,189 contracts while prices gained 240. Support lies at 1,00,310, with further downside possible towards 99,990. Resistance is placed at 1,00,835, and a breakout above may push prices towards 1,01,040.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 99990-101040.
* Gold steadied as Powell signaled possible rate cuts amid restrictive policy.
* Markets nearly fully priced a 25bps September Federal Reserve rate cut.
* Russia-Ukraine tensions boosted safe-haven appeal, supporting stronger bullion demand outlook.
Silver
Silver prices slipped by 0.25% to settle at 115,950 as traders booked profits after the recent rally, although downside remained limited by strong expectations of US Federal Reserve policy easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is likely to cut rates in September, noting growing labor market risks despite low unemployment. Markets are now pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, reinforcing investor appetite for precious metals. On the industrial front, silver found support from robust solar sector demand. China’s solar cell exports surged more than 70% in the first half of 2025, driven by Indian demand, while the country added a record 93 GW of new solar capacity in May, marking a 300% year-on-year jump. Investment demand also provided a strong cushion. Global silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw net inflows of 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total inflows for all of last year. By June-end, global silver ETP holdings stood at 1.13 Boz, close to record highs, reflecting bullish sentiment. Retail investment trends remain mixed—Europe and India posted gains, with Indian demand up 7% year-on-year, while other regions saw slower uptake. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with open interest falling by 2.06% to 12,690 contracts, alongside a price decline of 286. Support is placed at 115,470, and a break below could test 114,985, while resistance lies at 116,470, with a move above opening the path towards 116,985.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 114985-116985.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after some support seen amid bets on US Federal Reserve policy easing.
* Powell warned labor risks rising, while policy stance remains restrictive.
* China’s solar cell exports surged 70%, boosting industrial silver consumption outlook.
Crude oil
Crude oil futures rallied by 2.26% to settle at 5,698 as traders balanced geopolitical concerns, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic signals. Prices gained on fears of potential disruptions to Russian supply following fresh U.S. sanctions threats, with President Donald Trump warning of further action if peace talks in Ukraine fail to progress within two weeks. Adding to bullish sentiment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of rate cuts as early as September, which could stimulate U.S. growth and, in turn, lift energy demand. On the supply side, OPEC+’s decision to gradually restore production has raised oversupply concerns, keeping prices nearly 9% lower than January levels. Still, supportive inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided a near-term lift. U.S. crude stocks dropped sharply by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, well above expectations for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also fell by 2.7 million barrels, reinforcing healthy demand trends, although distillate stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, highlighting uneven consumption patterns. From a broader outlook, OPEC raised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million bpd while trimming non-OPEC supply growth, suggesting a structurally tighter market. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 4.3% to 12,093 contracts while prices gained 126. Immediate support is seen at 5,613, with a break below opening downside towards 5,529, whereas resistance is pegged at 5,745, and a move above could test 5,793.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5529-5793.
* Crude oil rises as traders fear Russian supply hit from new US sanctions, Ukraine attacks.
* Ukraine drone attacks target Russian energy infrastructure
* US vice president says Russia has made 'significant concessions'
Natural gas
Natural gas futures slipped by 1.27% to settle at 232.9, weighed down by forecasts of cooler weather and weakening late-summer demand, which reduced immediate concerns over tight storage levels before winter. However, losses were cushioned by lower daily output and stronger gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. On the supply side, U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.5 bcfd in August, surpassing July’s record of 107.8 bcfd, according to LSEG. Still, storage builds remain smaller than expected, with U.S. inventories increasing by just 13 bcf during the week ending August 15, well below forecasts of 22 bcf and the five-year average build of 35 bcf. Stockpiles remain 5.8% above the five-year norm, reflecting a comfortable buffer heading into the heating season. Looking ahead, LSEG projects U.S. gas demand, including exports, will ease from 111 bcfd this week to 104 bcfd over the next two weeks, aligning with seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, the U.S. EIA in its latest STEO projected record-high gas output of 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to rise modestly to 91.4 bcfd in 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest plunging 29.13% to 12,912 contracts. Support is seen at 229, with further downside possible towards 225.1, while resistance is at 237.3, and a breakout above may push prices towards 241.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 225.1-241.7.
* Natural gas fell pressured by forecasts for cooler weather and fading summer demand.
* However, downside seen limited amid recent declines in daily output and an increase in gas flows to LNG export plants.
* LNG export flows averaged 15.9 bcfd, nearing record April highs.
Copper
Copper futures gained 0.28% to settle at 890.55, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of rate cuts and by resilient demand in China. Seasonal demand expectations in the world’s top consumer, coupled with a rise in the Yangshan copper premium by 13% to $51 a ton since August 11, underscored robust appetite. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.4% from last Friday, reinforcing supply tightness in the near term. On the supply side, Chile’s state miner Codelco cut its 2025 production guidance after an accident at the El Teniente mine slashed 33,000 tons of output, while Peru posted a 7.1% YoY increase in June production led by Las Bambas. Despite higher Peruvian supply, global balances remain relatively tight. The International Copper Study Group reported a 36,000-ton surplus in June, narrowing from 79,000 tons in May, while the year-to-date surplus stood at 251,000 tons versus 395,000 tons a year earlier. China continues to underpin global demand, with July copper concentrate imports up 9% to 2.56 million tons, reflecting strong smelter appetite amid record production runs. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying with open interest rising 10.51% to 6,321 contracts. Support lies at 888.1, with further downside possible to 885.7, while resistance is at 892.8, and a move above could open the path towards 895.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 885.7-895.1.
* Copper rose tracking weaker dollar and upbeat Chinese seasonal demand outlook.
* Yangshan copper premium surged 13% since August 11, signaling stronger imports.
* Shanghai copper inventories dropped 5.4% from last week, tightening supply.
Zinc
Zinc futures slipped by 0.5% to settle at 267.8, weighed down by a rise in inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which climbed 1.3% from last Friday. Domestic inventories also reflected an upward trend, with total zinc ingot stock across seven major Chinese locations reaching 135,400 mt, up by 16,300 mt from August 11 and 6,200 mt from August 14. These rising stock levels, coupled with weak Chinese macroeconomic data, have raised concerns about demand prospects in the world’s largest consumer. On the supply side, global output trends continue to add volatility. Production from major overseas zinc mines rose over 12% YoY, though disruptions persist, including heavy rains in South China affecting smelter operations and reduced output from Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine (down 20% in Q1) and Nyrstar’s announced 25% annual cut. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 44,100 tons in May after a surplus in April, though the January–May period still reflected an 88,000-ton surplus, smaller than last year’s 214,000 tons. Technically, fresh selling was observed as open interest rose 8.09% to 2,190 while prices fell by 1.35. Zinc now finds support at 266.7, with further downside risk towards 265.4, while resistance is placed at 269.6, and a break above may lift prices to 271.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.4-271.2.
* Zinc prices eased as Shanghai inventories rose 1.3% from last Friday.
* Eurozone orders rebounded, boosting activity to fastest pace in 15 months.
* Global zinc mine output surged 12% YoY, adding to supply pressures.
Aluminium
Aluminium futures slipped by 0.36% to settle at 252.2, pressured by higher global output but with downside limited due to supply risks and supportive macro cues. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary aluminium production rose 2.5% YoY to 6.373 million tonnes in July. Supply developments remain in focus. Guinea’s military-led government revoked all mining licenses, transferring them to a state-run entity, threatening disruptions to bauxite ore supply that feeds Emirates Global Aluminium. Meanwhile, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique, Africa’s second-largest, due to power shortages, tightening global supply. China, the world’s top producer, remains bound by its annual cap of 45 million tonnes, further restricting production growth. Chinese aluminium output in July rose 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM, while exports increased to 542,000 tonnes from June’s 489,000 tonnes, reflecting steady demand. Imports surged 38.2% YoY to 360,000 tonnes in July, with cumulative imports in the first seven months of 2025 at 2.33 million tonnes, up 1.5% from last year. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 3.04% to 2,679 contracts while prices fell by 0.9. Aluminium finds immediate support at 251.5, with further weakness likely toward 250.9, while resistance is seen at 253.2, and a breakout above could push prices to 254.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 250.9-254.3.
* Aluminium dropped as Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year on year to 6.373 million tonnes.
* However downside seen limited amid support from a weaker dollar magnified the impact of lower supply.
* Japanese port aluminium stocks slipped 0.4% in July, indicating tightening supply.
Turmeric
Turmeric futures ended marginally higher by 0.01% at 13,374 as tight availability in major markets continued to lend support. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and no fresh arrivals have been reported in recent sessions. This scarcity, coupled with cautious selling, has kept prices firm. However, upside momentum remains capped as favorable monsoon conditions are expected to boost acreage. Preliminary estimates suggest a 15–20% increase in turmeric sowing this season, as farmers opt for turmeric over other crops with lower profitability. At the Duggirala market, arrivals of fresh produce are drawing strong buying interest, with new crop commanding a premium over older stock due to its better quality. Daily trading volumes remain healthy at 1,000–1,200 bags, and around 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, ensuring active participation despite the season’s end. On the trade front, exports during April–June 2025 rose 3.12% YoY to 47,949.56 tonnes. However, June shipments dropped by 7.93% YoY to 13,787.28 tonnes and were down sharply by 28.21% compared to May, reflecting weaker short-term export demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.48% to 17,835 contracts. Support is seen at 13,314, below which prices may test 13,256, while resistance lies at 13,436, with further gains possible up to 13,500 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13256-13500.
* Turmeric settled flat as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.
* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.
* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13710.95 Rupees dropped by -0.14 percent.
Jeera
Jeera futures slipped marginally by 0.10% to 19,685 as weak domestic and export demand weighed on prices. The conclusion of the retail season and subdued foreign buying activity have kept market sentiment under pressure. Comfortable supplies and tepid export interest, amid adequate existing stock availability, are adding to the bearish undertone. Farmers reportedly hold about 20 lakh bags of jeera, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Geopolitical disruptions in major producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have reduced their output, which could have supported Indian exports. However, global demand remains weak, limiting the benefit. India’s jeera production for 2025 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat is expected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, China’s crop has been revised lower to 70–80 thousand tonnes from earlier estimates of 1 lakh tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan together may contribute around 30–33 thousand tonnes. Despite this, Indian exports have faltered. Shipments during April–June 2025 fell sharply by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes versus 73,666.09 tonnes last year. The market witnessed long liquidation with open interest falling 3.96% to 4,734 contracts. Support is placed at 19,510, with a break below opening downside towards 19,330. Resistance lies at 19,890, and a move above could extend gains towards 20,090.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19330-20090.
* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand
* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags
* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19955.5 Rupees gained by 0.22 percent.
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