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Gold

Gold prices edged lower, settling down by 0.28 percent at Rs 134,521, as traders booked profits after the recent rally, despite a broadly supportive macro and geopolitical backdrop. The yellow metal continues to draw underlying support from expectations of further U.S. monetary easing and persistent global uncertainties. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that the U.S. central bank still has room to cut interest rates, estimating policy rates to be around 50–100 basis points above neutral. While he emphasized there is no urgency for aggressive action, he acknowledged that the U.S. labour market is gradually softening, allowing the Fed to ease policy at a measured pace if required. On the outlook front, Morgan Stanley maintained its bullish medium-term projection, forecasting gold prices at USD 4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Physical demand, however, remained mixed. In India, discounts widened to as much as USD 34 per ounce amid subdued wedding-season buying at record price levels, while Chinese demand stayed muted. Elsewhere in Asia, premiums and discounts reflected cautious buying amid volatility. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.92 percent alongside a Rs 373 price drop. Support is seen at Rs133,640, with further downside toward Rs 132,755, while resistance stands at Rs135,500, and a break above could open the door toward Rs 136,475.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 132755-136475.

* Gold dipped on profit booking as expectations of further US rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks.

* Fed’s Waller said the U.S. central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid rising job market weakness.

* Morgan Stanley projected gold prices would see smaller gains in 2026 as central banks and exchange-traded funds reduce purchases.

Silver

Silver prices declined 1.87% to settle at 203,565, as the market witnessed profit booking after a strong recent rally driven by tightening inventories and robust demand fundamentals. The metal had earlier gained support from strong ETF inflows, sustained retail buying, and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, reinforcing expectations of a persistent supply deficit. Industrial demand remains a key pillar, led by solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and data-center infrastructure, while mine production and recycling have stayed broadly flat for over a decade. As a result, the global silver market is expected to record a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, estimated at around 125 million ounces, taking the cumulative shortfall since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Supply-side concerns have intensified after Chinese stockpiles fell to the lowest level in a decade, with large volumes shipped to London to ease a squeeze. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls effective 2026 has further fueled pre-emptive buying. Meanwhile, elevated lease rates in London indicate genuine physical tightness.  Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9% to 12,888 contracts even as prices fell by Rs3,870, signaling short build-up. The metal has immediate support at 201,140, below which prices could test 198,715. On the upside, resistance is seen at 206,525, and a decisive move above this level may open the path toward 209,485.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 198715-209485.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand.

* Industrial demand, especially from solar panels and electronics, continues to surge, which has created a persistent and growing supply deficit.

* Fed’s Williams said the U.S. central bank's interest rate cut last week was the right move.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.22% to settle at 5,114, supported mainly by rising geopolitical tensions and fresh concerns over potential supply disruptions. Sentiment was lifted after the United States ordered a full shutdown of maritime traffic involving sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the seizure of a blacklisted tanker. At the same time, Washington signaled tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, while the European Union added 41 more vessels to its sanctions list, intensifying scrutiny of Russia’s shadow fleet. Fundamentally, the market remains weighed by elevated global supply. OPEC+ continued to restore output, with group production rising to 43.06 million bpd in November, while non-OPEC producers, especially in the Americas, sustained strong output growth. The International Energy Agency continues to project a sizeable surplus in 2026, though it marginally narrowed its estimate to 3.84 million bpd, citing stronger demand growth and slightly lower supply expectations due to sanctions. In the US, crude inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels, exceeding expectations, with notable draws at the Cushing hub, providing near-term support. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 20.03% to 21,437 alongside a price gain. Immediate support is seen at 5,080, below which prices may test 5,045. On the upside, resistance is placed at 5,143, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 5,171.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5045-5171.

* Crude oil gains supported by rising geopolitical tensions.

* The US has ordered a full shutdown of maritime traffic involving sanctioned oil tankers operating to and from Venezuela.

* US crude oil inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels, following a 1.812 million barrel decline in the previous week

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.85% to settle at 356.2, pressured mainly by forecasts for above-average temperatures across large parts of the United States ahead of Christmas, which are expected to dampen heating demand. The downside was reinforced by record-high production and comfortable storage levels. Lower-48 dry gas output is estimated at around 109.7 Bcf per day in December, broadly matching the record levels seen in November, keeping the supply side firmly well-stocked. Supportive cues emerged from strong LNG export activity, with average gas deliveries to the eight major U.S. LNG export facilities rising to 18.6 Bcf per day so far this month, surpassing November’s record average. Increased feed gas demand was also indicated by higher intake at Freeport LNG, suggesting one liquefaction train has returned to service. However, these bullish factors were outweighed by weather-related demand concerns and persistent supply abundance. On the storage front, U.S. utilities withdrew 167 Bcf during the week ended December 12, taking inventories to 3,579 Bcf. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 10.29% to 16,132 alongside a price decline. Natural gas has immediate support at 345.9, below which prices may test 335.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 373.8, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 391.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 335.7-391.5.

* Natural gas dropped as forecasts for above-average temperatures suggested weaker heating demand.

* US energy firms withdrew 167 bcf of natural gas from domestic storages for a total stock of 3,579 bcf

* Average gas deliveries to the eight major U.S. LNG export facilities rose to 18.6 Bcf/d so far this month.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.15% to settle at 1,111.7, as the market witnessed mild profit booking after the recent sharp rally, with participants increasingly focusing on the future path of U.S. interest rates and fading momentum in the artificial intelligence-driven trade. Despite the correction, downside remained limited amid persistent concerns over medium-term supply tightness. LME copper has surged nearly 33% this year, scaling successive record highs on expectations that mine disruptions and underinvestment could result in supply deficits next year. On the supply side, China’s refined copper production rose sharply in November, up 11.9% year-on-year to 1.24 million tons, while Peru reported a 4.8% annual increase in October output. However, the global refined copper market slipped into a 51,000-ton deficit in September, according to the International Copper Study Group, underscoring tightening fundamentals compared with last year. China’s copper imports fell for a second consecutive month in November as elevated prices dampened buying interest, while the Yangshan premium continued to ease, reflecting softer demand for imported material. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.27% to 7,012 alongside a price decline. Immediate support is seen at 1,107.4, below which prices could test 1,103.1. Resistance stands at 1,115.9, and a move above this level may open the way toward 1,120.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1103.1-1120.1.

* Copper dropped on profit booking with the market focusing on future United States interest rate path.

* China's refined copper production in November jumped 11.9% year-on-year to 1.24 million tons.

* Peru's copper production grew 4.8% in October compared to the same month in 2024, reaching 248,192 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.59% to settle at 302.45, pressured mainly by higher-than-expected supply from China and renewed concerns over domestic demand. China’s zinc output rose 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 metric tons, underscoring ample near-term availability. Sentiment was further weighed by weak Chinese macro data, as factory output and retail sales growth slowed and property investment and sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, reviving demand-side concerns. However, downside remained limited amid emerging supply constraints. Several zinc mines in Central and Southwest China are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce zinc concentrate output, including an estimated 700 metric tons of metal content in December. Inventory dynamics also turned supportive, with zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropping 12.3% week-on-week. Globally, inventories outside China remain at extremely low levels. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 20,300 tons in September, while the market deficit eased to 600 tons in October, indicating a gradually tightening balance. Technically, zinc is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.75% to 2,184 alongside a price decline. Immediate support is seen at 301.4, below which prices could test 300.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at 303.7, and a move above this level could see prices testing 305.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 300.4-305.

* Zinc dropped as China Nov zinc output +13.3 % y/y at 654,000 metric tons.

* Global zinc market deficit edges down in October, ILZSG says

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 12.30% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.23% to settle at 282.2, supported mainly by tightening global supply prospects after confirmation that the Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March, which is expected to dent global output next year. Supply concerns were further amplified by disruptions elsewhere, including the suspension of a potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter due to equipment failure. Reflecting tightening availability, on-warrant aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses declined to 452,600 tons following fresh cancellations, while inventories at major Japanese ports fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tons. Premiums sought by global producers for January–March shipments to Japan surged sharply, highlighting a tight physical market. However, upside remained capped by renewed demand concerns stemming from weak economic data in China. Although China’s aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tons in November, persistent worries over property-sector weakness and broader consumption tempered sentiment. SHFE-monitored inventories also declined by 2.5%, offering some near-term support. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 2.54% to 2,184 while prices gained. The metal has immediate support at 280.8, below which prices could test 279.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 283.3, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 284.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 279.3-284.3.

* Aluminium gains after confirmation that the Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be shut, which will dent global supplies next year.

* However upside seen limited dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 312,100 metric tons by the end of November, a drop of 5.2% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices yesterday settled lower by 0.83 percent at 16,012, primarily weighed down by expectations of higher acreage amid favourable monsoon rains during the ongoing sowing season. However, the downside remains limited due to below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment continues to find support from significantly reduced stocks held by both farmers and stockists, which is helping create a price floor ahead of new crop arrivals. Crop fundamentals remain mixed. For the 2026 harvest, India’s turmeric acreage is estimated at around 3.02 lakh hectares, up nearly 4 percent year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output at the all-India level is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks cap the net increase in availability. Unseasonal heavy rains during August–September caused waterlogging and disease issues in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, leading to yield losses of 15–20 percent in affected pockets. Despite this, Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags due to higher acreage. Other producing states together may contribute about 40 lakh bags, supported by expansion and better agronomic practices, including rising adoption of IPM. Demand remains robust, with exports during April–September 2025 rising over 4 percent year-on-year, led by Europe and the USA. Spot prices in Nizamabad ended marginally lower at ?15,396. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.84 percent alongside a price decline of ?134. Support is seen at 15,836, with a further downside risk toward 15,658, while resistance is placed at 16,306 and then 16,598.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15658-16598.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15396.15 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices yesterday settled marginally lower by 0.26 percent at 21,135, even as weather-related issues and delayed sowing continued to lend underlying support to the market. Upside, however, remained capped due to comfortable supplies and subdued export interest, with most overseas demand being met from existing stocks. In Gujarat, as of 15 December 2025, jeera sowing stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down nearly 14 percent year-on-year, as uneven rainfall and unprepared fields resulted in one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha remained very low, with good-quality cumin commanding a premium. Fundamentally, demand remains mixed. While export inquiries from Gulf countries and China have shown some improvement, buying continues to be price-sensitive. Logistical and weather disruptions across India and the Middle East are tightening near-term supply, though the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity from foreign buyers are weighing on sentiment. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags of jeera, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat and Rajasthan contributing the bulk. Exports during April–September 2025 declined over 14 percent year-on-year, despite a sequential improvement in September shipments. Spot prices in Unjha ended marginally lower at Rs20,977. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.7 percent alongside a price decline of Rs 55. Support is seen at 21,050, followed by 20,950, while resistance is placed at 21,300 and then 21,450.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20950-21450.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20977.25 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.

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