Turmeric trading range for the day is 13010-13278 - Kedia Advisory

Gold
Gold prices rose by 0.13% to settle at 101,338, driven by increasing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and renewed safe-haven demand amid rising global uncertainties. Weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data for July indicated potential cracks in the labor market, prompting markets to assign an 81% probability to a rate cut in September. Additionally, heightened trade tensions following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on imports from multiple countries added to gold’s appeal as a hedge. Citi has revised its gold price forecast upward, projecting prices could reach $3,500 per ounce over the next three months, citing a deteriorating outlook for U.S. growth and inflation, institutional credibility concerns, and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gross gold demand has surged by over a third since mid-2022, with prices nearly doubling by Q2 2025. Physical demand improved in Asia as price pullbacks spurred buying interest, though volatility kept some buyers cautious. Indian dealers narrowed discounts to $7/oz from $15 last week. In China, gold was traded in a wide range of discounts and premiums, while modest premiums were observed in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% YoY in Q2 2025 to 1,248.8 metric tons, with investment demand jumping 78%. Technically, gold is under fresh buying, with a 1.57% rise in open interest to 15,078. Support is seen at 100,680, with deeper support at 100,025, while resistance lies at 101,785 and further up at 102,235.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 100025-102235.
* Gold rallied to all time high on MCX driven by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut as well as safe-haven demand.
* Data showed US employment growth was weaker than expected in July, signaling potential cracks in the labor market.
* Trump unveiled new tariffs rates—ranging from 10% to 41%—on imports from dozens of countries, set to take effect on August 7.
Silver
Silver prices rose by 1.13% to settle at 113,504, buoyed by increasing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut after disappointing July jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls grew by only 73,000, well below expectations, with significant downward revisions of 258,000 to previous months, indicating deeper labor market weakness. This has led markets to nearly fully price in a September rate cut, with over 63 basis points of easing expected by year-end. Economic concerns were heightened by President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs, raising fears of inflation and slower growth. U.S. factory orders also declined by 4.8% in June, mainly due to a sharp 22.4% drop in transportation equipment orders, reinforcing recessionary concerns. On the demand side, retail silver investment in Europe continues to recover from its 2024 lows, while Indian retail demand remains strong with a 7% year-over-year rise in H1 2025. Global silver ETP holdings surged to 1.13 billion ounces by June 30, with net inflows of 95 million ounces already surpassing the total for all of 2024—reflecting growing investor confidence. Technically, the market saw short covering as open interest fell by 7.88% to 17,402 while prices gained 1,268. Immediate support lies at 112,425, with further downside risk to 111,350. Resistance is seen at 114,155, with a breakout potentially testing 114,810.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 111350-114810.
* Silver rose as weak U.S. jobs data boosts Fed rate cut expectations.
* Nonfarm payrolls increased only 73,000, with major downward revisions reported.
* Markets nearly fully price September Fed cut, 63 bps easing expected.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices declined by 1.51% to settle at 5,748, pressured by OPEC+’s decision to increase production and mounting geopolitical tensions. The alliance confirmed a widely anticipated output hike of 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in September 2025, effectively completing the rollback of voluntary cuts made in 2023. While this move was expected, it reinforced market fears that global oil supply could outpace demand in the latter part of the year, possibly leading to inventory build-up. This was further compounded by a significant rise in U.S. crude inventories, which surged by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25—the largest in six months—against expectations of a 2 million barrel decline. Adding to bearish sentiment, U.S. labor market data disappointed, signaling potential economic slowdown. The Trump administration's threat of secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian oil—especially India—adds further uncertainty, with potential enforcement from August 8. Refined fuel data showed mixed signals, with gasoline stocks dropping by 2.725 million barrels while distillate inventories rose by 3.635 million barrels. The OPEC+ production strategy, which began with a modest 138,000 bpd hike in April and increased monthly, now totals a 2.5 million bpd reversal, roughly 2.4% of global demand. Technically, the market is showing signs of fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose by 8.28% to 8,630 while prices dropped 88. Crude oil is finding support at 5,698, with further downside towards 5,649. Resistance is seen at 5,817, and a breakout above could push prices towards 5,887.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5649-5887.
* Crude oil fell after OPEC+’s decision to raise output and growing geopolitical uncertainty.
* OPEC+ confirmed a widely expected production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September
* Traders are also watching for possible US action against Russian oil flows.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices surged by 3.62% to settle at 266, driven by a combination of declining daily output, increasing LNG export flows, and persistent forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather across the U.S. through late August. This heatwave is expected to keep air conditioning demand elevated, thereby boosting gas consumption for power generation. Notably, over 40% of U.S. electricity is generated from gas-fired power plants, amplifying the fuel’s importance in periods of high cooling demand. According to LSEG data, average gas output in the Lower 48 states edged up to 108.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, slightly higher than July's record of 107.9 bcfd. However, daily output fell sharply to a three-week low of 106.0 bcfd, down by 3.7 bcfd from the July 28 record of 109.7 bcfd, indicating short-term supply tightening. Simultaneously, gas demand is set to rise from 105.1 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week, with LNG export flows increasing to 15.9 bcfd in August—approaching the April record of 16.0 bcfd. U.S. gas storage rose by 48 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 25, surpassing expectations of a 38 bcf build, taking total stocks to 3.123 trillion cubic feet. Technically, the market saw short covering, with open interest dropping 17.65% to 36,110 as prices rose 9.3. Natural gas finds support at 260, with potential downside to 254.1, while resistance lies at 269.6, and a breakout above could lead to 273.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.1-273.3.
* Natural gas climbed lifted by a drop in daily output, rising gas flows to LNG export plants.
* Daily output drops to three-week low, impacting supply
* LNG export feedgas increases after plant outages end
Copper
Copper prices declined by 0.77% to close at 880.7, weighed down by a notable rise in inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which surged by 14,275 tons to 153,850 tons—a 70% increase since late June. However, the downside was cushioned by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts from September and concerns over potential supply disruptions in Chile. Operations at Codelco’s El Teniente mine remain suspended following a fatal earthquake-related incident, raising supply risk sentiment. Despite LME stock buildup, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.2%, suggesting stronger Asian demand. On the supply side, Chilean copper production showed robust growth—Codelco’s output rose 9% and Antofagasta’s jumped 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved efficiency at their concentrators. Globally, the refined copper market showed a surplus of 97,000 metric tons in May, reversing April’s 80,000-ton deficit, as per ICSG data. From January to May, the market remained in a surplus of 272,000 tons. China's June copper imports rose 8.7% to 464,000 tons, reversing a two-month decline, though cumulative 2025 imports still trail last year’s figures due to inventory relocations ahead of the U.S. tariff implementation starting August 1. Technically, copper is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 6.81% to 7,217, indicating new short positions. Price support lies at 877.4, and a break below could test 874.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 886.8, and a move above this level could take prices toward 892.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 874.1-892.9.
* Copper prices eased slightly after data showed stocks had risen on the London Metal Exchange.
* Copper stored in LME registered warehouses rose by 14,275 tons to a total of 153,850 tons, marking a gain of 70% since late June.
* However, expectations of rate cuts in US and concern about possible disruption of supplies from Chile limited selling.
Zinc
Zinc prices settled marginally lower by 0.08% at 265.05 as persistent demand concerns weighed on sentiment, particularly after China's manufacturing activity contracted in July and new export orders declined for the fourth consecutive month. Additionally, falling factory output and job cuts pointed to a subdued industrial outlook. However, the downside was limited due to tightening supply conditions. Chinese smelters are facing mounting pressure to cut output as production capacity continues to outpace demand. Despite rising inventories—Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc stocks rose 3.9% from the previous Friday—support came from a weaker U.S. dollar following disappointing U.S. jobs data, which fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Meanwhile, China's government efforts to stabilize key industrial sectors such as machinery, autos, and electrical equipment provided further cushion to prices. On the supply side, global mined output continues to shrink. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine in Alaska, the world's largest zinc mine, saw a 20% year-on-year decline in Q1 output. Additionally, Australia’s Nyrstar plans to cut 2025 output by 25% due to unviable treatment charges amid ore shortages. The global zinc market flipped to a deficit of 44,100 tons in May, compared to a 17,300-ton surplus in April, according to ILZSG data. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation with a 0.8% drop in open interest to 3,091. Zinc is finding support at 264.1, with further downside toward 263.1 if breached. Resistance lies at 266.8, and a breakout could push prices up to 268.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 263.1-268.5.
* Zinc dropped as demand concerns lingered as China's manufacturing activity contracted in July.
* However downside seen limited as zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.
* However upside seen limited as demand concerns lingered as China's manufacturing activity contracted in July.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices remained unchanged at 251.35 as markets reassessed the scope of fiscal support from the Chinese government. While China reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining loose fiscal and monetary conditions to support manufacturing activity, it held back from announcing direct consumer-focused stimulus. This tempered expectations for aggressive industrial expansion, keeping price action muted. However, downside remained limited as sentiment was supported by tightening supply and signs of improving demand. Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose modestly by 1.5%, suggesting a still-balanced market. Additionally, Beijing’s pledge to stabilize industrial growth, including massive infrastructure investments like the CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project, boosted the outlook for base metals demand. Production-wise, China’s aluminium output in June fell 3.23% month-on-month, although year-on-year it increased by 3.4% to 3.81 million metric tons. Cumulatively, aluminium output in the first half of 2025 rose 3.3% to 22.38 million metric tons. Exports in June dropped to 489,000 tonnes from 547,000 tonnes in May, indicating weaker international demand. Similarly, Japanese buyers agreed to a 41% lower premium for Q3 shipments amid subdued demand and ample supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with a 0.55% rise in open interest to 4,381, even as prices stayed flat. Aluminium is finding immediate support at 250.7, with further downside risk toward 250. On the upside, resistance is expected at 252.4, and a break above could take prices to 253.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 250-253.4.
* Aluminium settled flat as markets recalibrated their expectations of fiscal support from the Chinese government
* U.S. jobs data was weaker than expected, suggesting a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions.
* China’s aluminium production in June 2025 (30 days) decreased by 3.23% MoM.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices edged up by 0.2% to settle at 13,168, supported by short covering after recent declines driven by expectations of increased acreage amid favorable monsoon conditions. Daily arrivals rose to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 in the previous session, indicating improved availability. While early estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% this season due to better profitability compared to other crops, actual production may not see a corresponding jump. This is primarily due to concerns over crop quality, as untimely rains and dry weather have led to smaller rhizomes and crop rots, particularly in the Nanded region. Despite the increased acreage—reported at 3.30 lakh hectares for 2024–25, up 10% from the previous season—yields are expected to be 10–15% lower than last year’s production of 10.75 lakh tonnes. Strong buyer interest continues at markets like Duggirala, where fresh arrivals are fetching premiums over older stock due to superior quality. Turmeric exports provided additional support, with shipments rising by 8.37% YoY to 34,162.28 tonnes during April–May 2025. May exports alone jumped 10.28% YoY and 28.41% MoM, reflecting strong global demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as seen by a 5.17% drop in open interest to 12,200. Immediate support lies at 13,088, with further downside testing 13,010. Resistance is seen at 13,222, and a break above could take prices to 13,278.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13010-13278.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.
* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.
* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13924.05 Rupees gained by 0.07 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged up by 0.18% to settle at 19,210, driven by short covering after recent weakness due to sluggish domestic and export demand post the retail season. The retreat in demand is largely attributed to the end of the peak retail cycle and muted interest from foreign buyers. Ample availability in the domestic market and sufficient existing stocks are also weighing on prices. Farmers reportedly still hold around 20 lakh bags of jeera, while only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season’s end, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated to be slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with forecasts at around 90–92 lakh bags. Gujarat is expected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Despite geopolitical tensions limiting output in other producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, Indian exports have yet to see a significant lift due to subdued overseas demand. Jeera exports during April–May 2025 declined sharply by 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024. However, on a month-on-month basis, exports improved in May 2025, rising 17.68% over April, indicating some recovery in global demand. Technically, the market is in short covering mode, as seen by a 3.92% drop in open interest to 4,407. Jeera is getting immediate support at 19,150, with further downside likely testing 19,080. Resistance is at 19,260, and a breakout could lead prices to test 19,300.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19080-19300.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.
* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags
* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19694.75 Rupees dropped by -0.42 percent.
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