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Bullion – Spot gold held steady near $4,130/Oz while Silver settled moderately higher at $51.5 on Tuesday as softer U.S. retail sales strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. Earlier, prices briefly touched a one-week high, on weaker dollar. Sep retail sales, core PPI, and Nov consumer confidence—reinforced the case for easing. Core PPI slowed to 2.6% Y/Y, while retail sales rose just 0.2%, indicating cooling demand. Consumer confidence also fell sharply to 88.7. However, improving prospects for a Ukraine peace deal and easing inflation expectations capped upside. Comments from Fed Governors Miran and Waller showed growing support for additional cuts, as markets now expects 85% probability in December. Today, gold rises nearly to 2-weeks high of $4,165 on expectation of Fed rate cut and attention now shifts to U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims for further cues.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil dropped to a five-week low of $57.1/bbl on Wednesday before recovering slightly to close at $58/bbl, as markets reacted to emerging signs of progress in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This may increase potential supply available to global market.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was prepared to advance a U.S.-backed framework aimed at ending the conflict with Russia, noting that only a small number of issues remained unresolved. Bearish sentiment was reinforced by softer US macro data, with September retail sales rising only 0.2% versus 0.4% expected, signaling potential pressure on energy demand. API data showed a 1.9M-barrel draw in US crude stocks, contrasting sharply with the prior 4.4M-barrel build and hinting at firmer nearterm demand. Today, oil trading moderately higher near $58.20 as market focus now turns to the EIA report, with consensus expecting a 2.36M-barrel crude draw and a 1.16M-barrel gasoline build.

Natural Gas – Nymex natural gas eased over 4% as warmer Dec 5–9 US forecasts signaled weaker heating demand, while expiring December contracts added liquidation pressure.

Base metals – Base metals ended Tuesday's session on a mixed note with copper remaining the key outperformer as prices held above $10,818/ton ahead of the Shanghai industry conference, where 2026 supply terms will be closely watched. Market sentiment stayed firmly underpinned by tightness across the copper supply chain, reflected in record-low treatment and refining charges, Chinese industry pushback against zero or negative processing fees, and a pause in new smelting capacity. Codelco’s record premium of $330/ton to South Korean buyers further highlighted constrained supply. Softer US data lifted expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at an 81% probability, while tentative progress on a US-brokered Ukraine peace proposal lifted broader sentiment, keeping base metals supported.

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